By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
New 2022 state population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show Illinois was once again one of the nation’s biggest losers. The bureau does a population estimate each year in addition to its full decennial census count at the end of each decade.
Illinois’ population shrank by over 104,000 between 2021 and 2022, the third-worst decline in the nation behind only New York and California. That’s similar to last year, when Illinois lost an adjusted 100,000 in population.*
In contrast with Illinois’ struggle to keep its residents and attract more in-migration, all of Illinois’ neighboring states except Michigan managed to grow their population. Illinois’ shrinkage also stands in stark contrast to the population increases of the nation’s fast-growing states in other parts of the country. States like Florida and Texas grew their populations by more than 400,000 each in 2022.
The Census data confirms what other population information, including the migration data from the IRS, shows: Illinois’ failed public policies continue to chase residents out of the state.
The nation’s biggest winners of population continued to be Texas and Florida, with gains of 471,000 and 417,000 over the year, respectively.
Illinois was also one of the nation’s biggest losers on a percentage basis. The state lost 0.82 percent of its 2021 population, the 2nd-most in the nation behind only New York. Louisiana was close behind with a loss of 0.8 percent.
Florida was the nation’s big winner on a percentage basis, adding nearly 2 percent to its population in 2022.
Illinois’ outlier status is all the more obvious when compared to its neighbors. Every one besides Michigan grew its population in 2022. Indiana was again the biggest winner, adding more than 19,500 people.
Michigan, like Illinois, shrank in 2022, but its losses were comparatively far smaller, just 0.03 percent of its population.
Illinois’ births, deaths and out-migration
Illinois’ change in population came from three major sources: the state’s net natural increase, its international migration and its domestic migration.
Illinois experienced 131,491 births and 126,625 deaths in 2022, resulting in a net natural increase of 4,866 people. That’s close to the state’s record low. Net international migration brought in another 31,539 people, up from a low of just 5,856 last year. And as in years past, domestic migration is where Illinois really suffered: 141,656 more people moved out of Illinois than moved into the state in 2022.
Combine all three components and you get Illinois’ net population loss of 104,437 in 2022. (The actual sum contains a small 824 residual adjustment by the Census Bureau.)
Total losses since 2020
Today’s population data release marks the second year of population estimates since the 2020 Decennial Census.
In total, Illinois’ population has shrunk by more than 230,500 people over the past two years (reported as the “Cumulative Change, April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022”). That’s nearly 2 percent of its 2020 population. By comparison, states like Florida (706,597) and Texas (884,144) have added hundreds of thousands of people. And states like Idaho (5.4%), Montana (3.6%) and Utah (3.3%) have grown their populations by several percentage points.
The continued pressure on Illinois’ population should be impossible for he state’s leadership to dismiss, but that hasn’t been the case.
Rather than act with urgency, last year Gov. J.B. Pritzker was happy to trumpet that the state had lost “only” 18,000 people between 2010 and 2020 – far less than the 250,000 the Census had originally projected. Never mind that Illinois was one of only three states in the country to shrink in population.
But now these new Census numbers show that, in just two years, Illinois has already lost 210,000 more population than during the entire 2010-2020 period.
The governor’s failure to address the state’s highest-in-the-nation property taxes, its worst-in-nation pension crisis, its growing crime, the state’s broken finances, its outlier jobs climate and more – not to mention his draconian Covid policies of the last two years – continues to drive more residents out of the state.
*The Census Bureau’s original 2021 population estimate reported that Illinois’ population declined by 113,700 in 2021. This new report revises the loss down to 110,111.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- IL has been bleeding its wealthiest residents for years. Now it’s Griffin’s turn to leave.
- DeSantis’s Florida blows away entire country in competition for people and their wealth
- Illinois needs a multiyear restructuring plan to stop residents from fleeing
- Over 460 soon-to-expire teachers union contracts and the ‘Workers’ Rights’ Amendment make Illinois’ April school board elections critical.
Appendix.
With $162 billion more from taxpayers, couldn’t you deliver a few bond upgrades, too
Audio and summary 
A largely unasked question is becoming glaring: Is Illinois doing all it should to use artificial intelligence to make government cost less and work better? So far, the evidence says no.
Hello,
I’ve always been interested in population trends and statistics. It doesn’t surprise me that California has declined in population. I believe this is the first time California has lost people. My state of Oregon has lost about 17,000 people. I don’t want to get too political but it seems the states that are losing population lean left.
Most of these people will move to neighboring conservative states and vote the same way and will cry about same problems they ran from.
Hello Virginia.
Other than Virginia mentioned below, it’s not the progressive liberals feeling NY, CA, IL trying to turn red states blue. it’s the other way around, as places like FL, TX, OH, UT are blood red, and only becoming redder, as blue state conservatives leave for redder pastures.
Common denominator for the loss of Ilinois citizens to other states is the democrats. Look at CA and NY.
Bad policies, high taxes, high crime, and loss of jobs = misery.
Can’t you go to Oboma library and read a book on what a great leader he was and visionary. I think its funny as I watch these leaders that were in office and see there failed policy’s take effect how they destroyed people’s lives and tje country. The Government is our worst enemy and the first lady’s are nobody’s so stop talking like they have some type of power there nit shit.
One of the many reasons that Illinois is losing population is because it’s a geographically conservative state that is controlled by liberal Chicago which is nothing like the rest of the state. This causes politically disenfranchised conservatives to leave. The part of Illinois outside of metro Chicago would have more political power if Illinois House districts were designed to be roughly equal in population and Illinois Senate districts were designed to be roughly equal in land size. That would balance the interests of Chicago and the rest of the state. This possibility was unfortunately made impossible by a 1964 Supreme… Read more »
Who hasn’t heard this stupid talking point already a thousand times ?
What is your point?
If you take Chicago metro out of the mix, Illinois is a Kansas copycat. Like it or not, we actually need Chicago, but Chicago doesn’t need Illinois.
When you leave Illinois make sure you stick your hand out the window and give it the finger as you leave.
Include all these blue states as well: California, Oregon, Washington, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts
Thank you for your detailed analysis. Reading the comments and knowing the opposition, I wonder if it were possible to separate the retired from the tired. As a realtor, I know many families who moved to Florida, Tennessee, and Texas. They were not escaping the cold. They were fleeing the unsustainable taxes and the burden of further legislative policy from politicians not acknowledging the unfortunate consequences of their poorly written legislation.
I think Pritzker and other blue governors are doing this on purpose. They drive people out who disagree with their programs, leaving them with all the power and control. The famous Curley Effect paper confirms this. https://www.nber.org/papers/w8942
Interesting theory, Patricia. The Curley Effects explain the bad public policies pushed by the Democrat legislature.
Yes, I’ve been saying this for years here. The progressive legislature is passing laws designed to isolate, distress and demoralize conservative voters, with the goal of forcing them to leave the state.
The new assault rifle ban, that criminalizes gun magazines that hold more than 10 bullets (virtually every modern handgun and rifle on the market) is designed to penalize responsible gun owners. They want you and your guns to leave the state. Because they hate you. They’re passing laws designed to put you into jail.
I have felt for many years that the liberal Democratic and RINO politicians who run Illinois purposely support and impose unviable, stupid, tyrannical, onerous, failed, far-left policies and high taxes to drive out conservatives, moderates, and libertarians. Most of the people leaving Illinois are conservatives, moderates, and libertarians escaping Illinois’ far left politics and high taxes. Geographically, the conservative regions of Illinois are experiencing the largest population drops as the residents of these areas feel unrepresented at the state level and their regions have experienced the worst loss of jobs in the state due to the state’s far-left policies and… Read more »
Yes, that means it’s working.
As long as the State of IL and City of Chicago continue to get enormous Federal taxpayer bailouts, who cares? The current lame duck Congress in partnership with establishment Republicans are voting to pass a $1.7T pork laden ‘Omnibus’ bill that has NO means of finance – it will ALL be printed, furthering inflation.
PS: For those 15M Americans who received Medicaid coverage due to the Covid19 pandemic, it’s gone – you are now uninsured. The cost? Approx $100B, about the same amount (unaccounted for) handed to Ukraine in the last ten months.
The money given to Ukraine is accounted for- things that BLOWUP and disappear. war is so stupid.
It’s a wonderful life in Chicago
Would be interesting to see the income demographics of the taxpayers who have left. Who will be left to pay for all the fiscal shenanigans?
The immigrants will! Plenty of manufacturing jobs and new construction!
Florida grew more because of all the Chicago cops moving to Punta Gorda, Florida. The only way to solve the huge problems Illinois has been to flee for another state. This is only going to increase every year. The pensioners leave because of all the crime, the hard-working private sector family leaves because of all the taxes and crime. This is like a cancer as more people leave, the huge pension deficit has to be covered by less people. This is called Death Debt Spiral. Soon the whole system will collapse in on itself. PPF and the likes of him… Read more »
The average public union employee simply accepted what was being given by the city or state. The coming Illinois collapse is not really his/her fault. If you want to point a finger, point it at all the residents of Illinois. They voted for the ultra-liberal agenda. If there is any unfairness, it is the fact that the ultra-liberal voters can now just up and leave Illinois, having destroyed it, and leave the mess for those that stay.
Not quite true, the Unions demand more and more money. Even when the know it is not fair for the poor honest working families. They do not give a damn. There are only Democrats to vote for, so you always get the same old chitt. This has destroyed the quality of life for many families for the benefit of a few.
Punta Gorda, Fl is going to be 78 and sunny today and safe from crime, unlike Chicago. All the Chicago cops move there ASAP once the pension kicks in.
The politicians didn’t offer the unions these sweetheart deals just to be nice. There is always a quid pro quo. The unions are not just innocents who took what was offered – they struck a deal with the devil and have been handsomely rewarded for their part in the destruction of Illinois.
The nightmare scenario for Illinois residents is if the exodus starts to grow exponentially. It easily could at some point, as homeowners start to panic watching more and more homes being put up for sale. It will start at the neighborhood level, and then spread throughout the city, followed by the state.
Shouldn’t folks be rushing to illinois to bask in the equity and covid “free stuff” giveaways?
They are from MX and elsewhere. They want your job, your school, your church, your neighborhood, and your house.
The day is coming when Illinois is populated by illegals, public employees, gang bangers and welfare recipients.
By the time I’m gone a native born privately employed illinoisian will be as rare as a Dodo bird sighting.
Will this appear in the Trib or Times or any of the local TV stations? Will anyone ask any politician, esp Pritzker about the population loss and its effect on taxes and pension debt? No, they’re all in denial of the consequences. And that’s why there are no Republicans left in IL. Every one that I know that’s left would vote Republican.
I apologize. John Keilman of the Trib did cover this thoroughly. However, Pritzker is still an a**. He is quoted as saying because there were more births than deaths, that’s a sign IL population is growing, totally ignoring the fact that tens of thousand living people are leaving.
I also believe that Illinois has major churn when it comes to illegal immigration replacing existing citizens. I think this is why the census numbers are continually “confused” as to whether there are gains or losses — illegal immigration is not well documented individually or as a group.
In the past year alone it is my understanding that some 2 million people have migrated to the country. Has anyone told us where they are at this point?
I’m guessing that a lot of them are here, but have not yet been accounted for.
That’s a huge point. The net population changes we all focus on so much are tiny compared to the gross numbers moving in and moving out — the churn as you say. We will be writing soon about how much churn there may be for political reasons.
Drive around the Chicago suburbs and you see the churn, as the pizza joints are replaced with taco shops, Starbucks become western unions and vacant store front are everywhere as the new residents are too poor to support local businesses. The average household income of my suburban home town is the same as it was 25 years ago. Yes, not adjusted for inflation, the same nominal number. Because the former residents left and were replaced by Mexican and central american immigrants who are all poor.
Well, ok, this just means that we need more money for schools, more universal basic income for people, help for affordable housing, a progressive income tax for the rich, less police, no bail, higher limits on felony theft, more EV’s and higher gas taxes and more collective bargaining rights for public employee unions and more pension bonds to reinvest.
Once we have those things this state will be number 1 in the nation!
Ted and Glenn, great job on unpacking this. It would be very interesting to see it matched to income data. For example, Illinois was a net loser on the natural birth death pick up of ~4000 people since older people who were presumably paying some taxes died, and babies don’t pay taxes. Babies depending on their parent income status can be net losses on a transfer payment basis as well. Of the rest, is it high-wage earners and wealthy retirees leaving? What are the incomes of the people moving in? I assume that is also a big net loss for… Read more »
Jeff, we write about that every year when the IRS publishes its migration numbers. They are brutal for IL. Our last report is here: https://wirepoints.org/bleeding-people-new-irs-migration-data-shows-illinois-lost-another-100000-residents-and-a-record-amount-of-wealth-in-2020-wirepoints/. The next numbers, which will be for 2021, won’t come out for a few months.
This is what Democrats want. Conservatives leaving only consolidates their power further. Sure they lose a few people, but those that remain make the state even more communist. That’s why they do this. It’s all intentional.
I was just about to say the same thing, but you got there first.
In addition, I’d argue that there is a cultural piece, too. Leftists don’t care for conservatives as people, let alone as voters. They consider us to be “deplorable” and are proud of their virtue in proclaiming us as nonpersons that they would prefer to not have as neighbors.
They hate us. They don’t want us to exist. This is not an exaggeration. Just listen to them talk about it.
Oh, and this year the lunatic Democrats are coming for your guns, that should drive at least 100,000 out on its own.
Pritzker is by far the worst Governor in the country. A self centered egotistical tyrant. If at all possible MOVE.
I call Pritzker the Lard Ladened Loser.
Illinois Democrat Census Deniers Are Trying To Deny The Undeniable, Ignore The Unignorable:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D60KCGcCGIM
Is the 2022 population loss based off the USCB’s original or revised 2020 estimates that Pritzker touted earlier this year? I have a hard time keeping track of what the beginning number should be.
The Census Bureau is using the original 12.812 million base from the 2020 Decennial. See the notes we added for more information.
OK. Even if we used the revised numbers Pritzker touted, wouldn’t that make the 2022 population loss number worse since JB’s starting number is higher?