We are now getting reasonably good data on how Illinois revenue is trending. That information has been obscured because the income tax rate increases in July 2017 made year-over-year comparisons difficult. (Month-over-month comparisons don’t mean much because seasonality distorts them.) Now, however, the rate changes don’t heavily distort the monthly year-over-year comparisons.
Comparing October tax revenue to October 2017 shows increases of 9.9%, 5% and 10.7% for the “big three,” respectively, the personal income tax, corporate income tax and sales tax. That increase totaled $120 million for the month.
Total fiscal year-to-date (July through October) for those taxes increased by 16.1%, 22.4% and 5.5%, respectively. That totaled an additional $1.2 billion, though that does reflect the increased rates.
It’s all in the monthly report from Illinois’ Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability.
The long term effects of the tax increase are a much different story. Illinoisans were already fleeing to escape high taxes, and the full effect of increased flight resulting from the rate increases will take years to show up.
-Mark Glennon is founder of Wirepoints.