By: Matt Rosenberg
In a recent interview Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot sounded like she might have been acknowledging reality about Chicago crime, with a reported admission about growing trouble downtown. But she really wasn’t.
That’s because as always this year, she accented that murders and shootings so far were down somewhat compared to last year. Murders and shooting incidents are 16 and 18 percent less than in 2021, respectively, as of last week’s end. Yet that claim is still misleading because last year isn’t the right comparison. 2021 was the worst for Chicago murders in 25 years. The better measure for major crimes like murders and shooting incidents, and anything else, is versus the last pre-Covid, pre-George Floyd year of 2019.
Using that yardstick, Chicago’s 2022 isn’t looking good. Using 2021 as a comparison to 2022 is an attempt to fish for numbers – any numbers – which deflect attention from the failure of Lightfoot’s administration to make Chicago’s streets safer since everything went south in 2020.
Politicizing the baseline comparison year isn’t the only way that the volume of crime in Chicago is downplayed. The second is failure to note how much crime nationally – and certainly in Chicago – goes unreported to police by victims. It’s a lot, according to U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics data.
The third way that crime is statistically minimized in Chicago is that some important crime categories are simply not included in the police department’s popular Compstat “Part 1” weekly crime summaries relied on so heavily by the mayor, the superintendent, and the media. That will be changing with an emerging and FBI-mandated alternative called the National Incident Based Reporting System, or NIBRS. Further, NIBRS will correct another current flaw: that when multiple crimes are reported as part of one incident, only the most serious one is counted.
Bottom line: the undercounting of crime in Chicago and other cities often falls into the category of an “unknown unknown.” We don’t even know what we’re missing, and how it is that we’re missing it.
At a time when legitimate and deep community concerns are growing about crime in Chicago and environs, it’s vital to beware of reporting system problems which artificially downplay the full extent of actual crime that is occurring. That’s not usually a concern to politicians, of course, but it should be to the media.
Chicago’s better crime baseline is 2019, not 2021
For the current crime reporting tool most emphasized by City Hall, the Compstat “Part 1” major crimes summaries, the better baseline year to use is 2019. That’s before the Great Unraveling began nationally in 2020 with riots, lootings, a spike in murders, carjackings, car thefts, and more. Comparing this year-to-date of 2022 to 2019 rather than Lightfoot’s preferred baseline year of 2021, we can see how high some crime levels remain.
Citywide data from the Chicago Police Department show that versus 2019, YTD Week 32 murders in Chicago for 2022 are up 31 percent and shooting incidents are up 33 percent. This is a far cry from the 2022-2021 comparisons Lightfoot and her Police Superintendent David Brown have continued to accentuate: down 16 percent and down 18 percent at Week 32’s close, respectively.
There’s more bad news. Motor vehicle theft in Chicago is up 57 percent versus 2019 YTD, to 8,537 from 5,449. And theft is up 32 percent, to 11,115 from 8,410.
Overall, “Part 1” major crimes in Chicago so far in 2022 are up 15 percent versus the same period in 2019.
Victims clam up, crime goes unreported
Not only are Lightfoot and Brown using the wrong baseline year to assess Chicago’s 2022 crime problem, they and many in the media are also failing to note how much crime is going unreported.
It’s widely known that many crime victims clam up and never report their victimizations. According to the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics’ most recent criminal victimization report issued in 2020, nationally only 40 percent of non-murder violent victimizations and only 33 percent of property victimizations are reported to police.
Crime victims are also crime witnesses. And in Chicago they cannot fail to notice what happens to witnesses who talk. Again, and again, and again, some pay the ultimate price. Hence, many crime victims report nothing in Chicago.
Also, the victimizations since 2020 by violent criminals of drivers in cars, of CTA riders and now even of police – is striking. Things feel as if they are running off the rails. More victims may be choosing to zip it as a result.
Others are resorting to armed self-defense; on the CTA two different times recently with knives and in Woodlawn with a gun against a member of a car theft crew who police say drew his weapon first. Would-be criminals are getting wounded or slain as would-be victims fight back. That shows faith in the system is eroding, and so too – more than in years past – may be the proclivity to report crime.
Chicago crime victims may also be more and more disinclined to report crime because of how long it can take for overburdened police to make it to the scene of a high-priority 911 call. As we reported, that problem reached a new level in 2021. After waiting for an hour or two on a prior occasion, victims of new crimes may just suck it up and move on without reporting the crime against them, at all.
Entire categories are left out of current crime reporting
Finally, there is NIBRS, the FBI’s new crime reporting standard, which underscores just how much crime is left out of the bureau’s current “Part 1” reporting scheme. Chicago’s current popular “Part 1” crime summaries issued each Monday for the year-to-date, report limited categories. They are murder, criminal sexual assault, robbery, aggravated battery, burglary, theft, motor vehicle theft, and shooting incidents. All crucial, no question.
But the new 2021 NIBRS crime reporting format makes it clear that other important categories get left out of the “Part 1” summaries. All local law enforcement agencies are under increasing pressure from the FBI to adopt NIBRS. One slightly ahead of the curve is Decatur, Illinois. Decatur’s 2021 NIBRS crime summary shows how the new system includes a whole array of crime categories not included in “Part 1” summaries now favored by Chicago.
Yes, some of these heretofore “hidden” categories are relatively minor. But some aren’t – like kidnapping; simple assault; intimidation; arson; and destruction, damage, and vandalism of property. Most notably left out in Chicago’s “Part 1” major crime summaries but required under NIBRS are weapons law violations. Chicago and Cook County are rife with them, and increasingly, convicted or charged weapons law offenders are charged anew with violent crimes.
So, this is another way that total crime has been undercounted in Chicago and other cities which continue to accent the Part 1 summaries. In case you wondered, Chicago has started the conversion process to NIBRS but the road has been rocky so far.
Chicago managed to report only 7 months of NIBRS, or expanded crime data to the FBI for 2021. Other cities are also having trouble implementing NIBRS reporting, often due to software issues. All the same, it’s coming. And it will force police departments nationwide to include categories of crime not currently accented in public communications.
Further undercounts are due to the current “hierarchy rule”
Additionally, and this is fairly big, NIBRS will do away with the current crime “hierarchy rule” used to report major “Part 1” incidents. This rule has for decades meant that when multiple alleged crimes are committed by a perpetrator at the same time, only the most serious crime is counted. So if a robbery, rape, and murder occur during the same attack, only the murder is counted. Just more than 1 in 10 reported crime incidents include multiple crimes, the FBI reports. And thus some number of unreported “lesser” crimes. Under NIBRS, all will be counted. NIBRS will also include expanded data on weapons used, data which at the city level will be especially useful.
***
The big takeaway? Despite a comprehensive Chicago crime database which is tricky for all but the most hardcore data nerds to use – “official” crime numbers in Chicago and most other cities are never quite what they appear to be. They represent lowball estimates. That’s a problem, and one about which politicians, media, and the public should be far more aware.
Looking ahead, unreported crimes will always remain substantial, but may well be growing, especially in cities like Chicago where crime continues to grow since 2019, along with fears of retaliation for good citizens inclined to report crimes they’ve suffered or witnessed. BJS should consider city-specific surveys of unreported crime in major cities like Chicago to test variance with national estimates of the problem.
Meanwhile, with a growing roll-out to law enforcement agencies nationwide, NIBRS will begin to correct the crime counts partially, at least.
For now though, until cities complete the switch to NIBRS, it’s important that mayors, police chiefs, and the media more consistently use the better baseline year for current crime growth calculations. That’s the year before the Great Unraveling began: 2019.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- Read the BGA’s report on Chicago’s overblown anti-violence programs
- Illinois officials ignore mass-shooting risks: 1,800 Cook County residents deemed “clear and present danger” still hold FOID cards
- CTA crime problem begs for real deterrence: Half-measures won’t do
- Chicago carjackings on pace for a 22-year high – and they’re getting more and more weaponized
Appendix
A mess of uncertainty and litigation is sure to follow.
With $162 billion more from taxpayers, couldn’t you deliver a few bond upgrades, too
Audio and summary
Lightfoot is a politician that picks and chooses the categories and the numbers she wants to tout. She can twist and turn those numbers as accountants to promote a healthy financial business environment. She promoting a healthy city and selling it as a great place to live, work and play, which true Chicagoans know it’s all smoke and mirrors. She’ll never admit that it’s the taxpayers who are hurting the most and those with the most financial resources will move to a place more stable. The very unfortunate situation Chicago will be facing is another Lightfoot mayoral win, because voters… Read more »
Population in the city will continue to shrink until the rate of crime decreases significantly
Every single night it’s breaking news.. someone is mugged, pushed onto the rl tracks, shot, car jacked run over, etc. Every single night. Every weekend the statistics are huge for the amount of shootings. How in gods name could it be less than last year? And I agree I think a lot of it is not reported for fear of retaliation because we all know the thugs are the ones who get the “get out of jail card”
Thank you for this illuminating article. Not much I can add except we have made major improvements in trauma care for gunshot victims in recent decades. Half the people who would have been murder victims a generation ago are now simply gunshot victims. This lowers the murder rate, of course.
Recent disclosures by all government officials indicate that we can never really trust any of them to tell us the truth about crime or virtually anything else. It is amazing how crime in Chicago and Cook County escalates while the population continues to decline. Correlation does not always mean causation, but in this case, it just might.
Thanks, Matt… The crime problem is real…and thanks again for doing the MSM’s job!
“Where there is no vision, people perish.”
Proverbs 28:18
A leader would find 1 shooting, or, 1 mugging, or any deviation from what should be to be a call to harken the goodness as a standard from the citizenry.
We have no leaders, thus, we have no vision. We have worse: chaos as a result.
Please wake up Democratic Voters!
Another enlightening article by Mr. Rosenberg. The City of Chicago attempts to hide real crime numbers by using gimmicks and selected categories, etc., but anyone who has been anywhere in the city has experienced the reality. Public safety for all citizens is an essential role of government. If current officeholders and bureaucrats cannot provide the most basic services, then perhaps they should be voted out of office or replaced with competent people willing to step up and protect the people.
The year after year comparisons I always found so disingenuous after a particularly violent year, so it’s refreshing that this article draws attention to it. It also shows how lazy media and pundits are when they echo those talking points that favor the politicians spinning the data. 2019 is the key year. And again note: No other country in the world had violent crime spikes like USA did in 2020. Everyone had a pandemic. Also, the undercounting is also important to highlight and I found this paragraph says much about this murky area of measuring crime: “Bottom line: the undercounting… Read more »
People in the neighborhoods talk, and they know all about the “ unknown unknowns”.
The communities have turned into the US equivalent of Brazilian favelas, no go zones for the police, where local criminal warlords control the comings and going of the residents, often block by block. Justice is received by asking the local gangbangers to do you favor.
While I’m certainly glad crime isn’t down from 2021, your story highlights one of the main problems— the criminals being let out on electronic monitoring. I’m also very fearful of this “no cash bail” non-bail being instituted under a distorted idea of justice. These criminals aren’t committing crimes out of poverty but because they can.
There is a concerted effort to skew these statistics in ANY way possible, so from the start it is untrustworthy. For example those killed/murdered. slaughtered on State property, highways etc are not counted as City deaths. Well, why not? To be dishonest. Bottom line. Until Chicago politicos are driven to honesty nothing any one of the says can be taken as straight truth anymore as they try to cater to special interests and the flirtations with business concerns which have time and again proven to be utterly false. How I wish for the days of ‘mild crime” with Capone and… Read more »
Nothing but slight of hand and parlor tricks for Triple Threat. We all know crime is out of control and she just gaslights to cover her own rear end.
It’s time to stand against the lethargic mush in place to address the crime today and get in committed leadership throughout the city.
Outstanding as always.
Perhaps a requirement to purchase a firearm might be the ability to read!
That oughta thin down the wait from the Secretary of State.
And there’s one question that puzzles & troubles me! How do these criminals-reprobates buy ammunition without a FOID Card ? Most certainly, these licensed gun owners don’t hide or keep an abundance of ammo in their cars ! Black Market anyone ?
If you want Law & Order you must depart from these Urban areas. There will be no resolution, no safety and no peace of mind for any sentient human being. Escape ! Not only are these suburbs populated with educated kids, intact families and adequate/responsive police protection, but they’re kept clean, the parks are safe and enjoyable, and the civil servants are cognoscente of their responsibilities and duties. Going a little to fast. heading west down Lake Street, I was courteously pulled over. Before you could say ‘lickety-split’, there were three patrol cars, three courteous and respectful officers. Funny how… Read more »
The faster we, the sane, leave the lower the concentration of rational people who can vote out the scum.
Looks bad from all angles.
In the continuing narrative tragedy which is daily life in the once great city of Chicago, Al Capone must be screaming from hell, “Are you kidding me”? Capone would be amazed at the mayhem and the casual march of anarchy in today’s Chicago. And he could legitimately ask, “What, no modern Eliot Ness”? Matt Rosenberg, without fail brings laser focused lucidity to the protracted conflict of a city administering benign neglect and blaming every name in the US Census for its outcomes. It appears this descent will be a permanent fixture of the citizens with no hope of abating. Viewing… Read more »
The IL (D)-(R) cabal – “Who you chumbalones (hat tip Kass) gonna believe, us or your lying eyes”…?!?
You know *trust the science* and all…
I doubt the situation will improve unless Lightfoot, Brown and Foxx are out. Thanks, Matt, for an informative piece.
Doubt the situation will improve much if Lightfoot, Brown, and Foxx are out. Have things improved with Madigan gone?
It’s called distorting the books which lightfoot and brown are good at
Election year coming up
By the time it approaches closer, they’ll say we have no crime in chicago as citizens are being shot at carjacked and robbed
We cannot be genuinely surprised Lightfoot and Brown are using the wrong year for the baseline to contrast this year’s crime stats when they stand up and dishonestly give us what can only be referred to as BS-ignore-the-facts-on-the-ground review each Monday of the outrageous number of murders/shootings the previous weekend. I pray the electorate takes the officials by the proverbial ear and shocks the nation in November and next February. I know – not common wisdom right now but there’s a truck driver in Trenton, NJ, that you can correctly call senator now who replaced the NJ Senate president –… Read more »
Thank. you Matt for all your hard work. I hope everyone shares your article so they reach as many Chicagoans as possible.
An old sayin is “if you can’t beat them join them.” Let’s all head to the stores for shoplifting Saturday tomorrow…see ya there.
Great work on a sad situation that our city has devolved into. The only hope is new leadership.
One category of crime that is under reported is retail theft. My wife witnessed two individuals fill two shopping bags of children’s clothes and walk out of the store. When the employees of the store were notified on what just occurred, they said” their policy is not to call the police and report the theft. It’s just part of doing business”. Another high end store on Chicago’s Michigan avenue, does not report thefts. Their policy is not to chase, or hold a thief because going to court is more money for them. So, is our business community slowly surrendering to… Read more »
Lori Lightfoot must have read those statistics while getting her hair done. After all she is a tv personality and cares about her looks. Think covid lockdowns.
We didn’t believe that, we don’t believe this. She has turned into a carnival mayor. You know that game where the heads bop up and you need to hit them down. Yep that’s the game she’s playing. If she could step
aside and let someone who knows what they’re doing do the job she can’t.
She is ridiculous.
Thanks for your words Matt.
More gaslighting by Lightfoot and Brown. Everyone knows things are worse as 406,829 911 calls weren’t responded to in 2021. And, things will not be any better unless there is a new mayor and Police Superintendent in 2023.
Lightfoot is an asshole and Brown is nothing more than a puppet.
Everyone knows that Lightfoot and the other leaders are lying. Even though no city leader should lie or even shade the truth, in a way it doesn’t matter at this point. She and the other leaders have lost control of the narrative, no one believes them (including their supporters), so everyone simply tunes them out as they blather on with cherry-picked statistics. What is important is the perception of crime. Everyone now rightly perceives Chicago as violent and dangerous, so the exact statistics no longer matter to the average person. Decision making on a personal level is based on perception.… Read more »
You make an excellent point: perception.
When my sister visited Italy in the 70s and was asked where she was from and responded “Chicago,” more than one person responded with a ‘Tommy gun’ mime. It had been decades since Al Capone’s reign, yet the perception remained in the mind of some Europeans.
Chicago may again be wearing this new ‘legacy’ of violence. Wonder what mime they’ll use now.
I wonder whether the city has resisted conforming to these new guidelines. And exactly which CPD positions are tasked with accurate and thorough reporting.
I don’t think that the mayors misleading the public will make anyone feel better about her or about the crime in the city. Had crime truly been down she would be taking all the credit that she could take. But it seems that there is no victory lap from her. Chicago deserves the truth.
The Mayor and her puppet of a Superintendent use smoke, mirrors and magic tricks to fool the public on the actual amount of crime that occurs on a daily basis. The agenda based media falls in line with the lies and deceit cause that is their agenda. People that actually know, see it and live it are not buying into the BS. Crime is out of control but let’s build a dome on top of Soldiers Field. Leadership failure at every level. It’s a clown 🤡 show and the law-abiding citizens are the ones suffering the consequences.
Apparently social media posts instructing how to carjack certain vehicles, organize schedules for mass raids on retail stores, and organize street riots are not considered eligible for ‘banning’ from social media? Protected free speech? while source-cited research by licensed medical professionals is taken down without a whiff of protest by citizens?
Time to jump ship?
I know a retired Chicago police detective who said that social media brought gang crime to a whole different level ! Through the roof !
Re: carjacking, I must say that I take a perverse pleasure when carjackers are thwarted because they can’t operate a manual transmission. Provided the victim isn’t hurt, of course.
Hopefully, the truth about the increase of crime in Chicago will be realized by all living in the US. and especially, Chicago. Mayor Lori Lightfoot needs to stop the deception or resign. If not, she need to be voted out ASAP.
Mayors, police chiefs and the media that seeks to curry favor with them will continue to tout statistics that make them look good and downplay statistics that make them look bad. You are correct to point out what they’re doing though. Productive economic activity in Chicago is certainly being hurt by increasing criminal activity.
Thanks for pointing out the BS! What a cherry picker Lightfoot is! Great job showcasing her analytical prowess! ha ha ha…. Beyond that, her “rationale” about how/why she’s doing a good job sort of reminds me of a twisted relativism comparing Stalin to Hitler to Kim Jong-il to Mussolini, etc…
Her crowing amounts to “I’m a relatively better idiot in a sea of idiots here in Chicago!” (But I’m not so sure she’s right.)
Excellent piece and breakdown . The crime is out of control you know thar from the empty store fronts on Michigan Ave . We have killed tourism and working people don’t want to work in the Loop anymore .
At the cost of public safety and human lives, this smoke and mirrors show will only get more ridiculous as the election draws near.
I was in San Francisco a couple months ago when my son’s car which I borrowed was broken into and valuables taken while parked in a public garage. I called the SFPD who politely informed me that unless a gun was taken, the report needed to be made at the station. After talking with my son, we decided that doing so would be a waste of time. The window glass was under the deductible, the laptop would be covered by employer and the rest, would just be a personal loss. Fortunately or unfortunately, my son knew a good auto glass… Read more »
Excellent example of what so often does not get counted in official crime data. Thanks for sharing that.
I went to SF in 2002 and I was riding the subway in a car with about 4 or 5 others and I took out a candy bar and took a bite out of it.
Almost immediately a voice came on over the speaker and said “Sir, you in the green shirt, eating is not allowed on SF public transportation, please put away your food,”
So I did and I thought, “Man, they are really serious about the rules.” I guess things changed in 20 years.
Must have been when there were actual conductors. Yes, now you could take a dookie in the BART and no one would say a word, just like is done everyday on Chicago’s CTA rapid transit trains and buses. 🙁
As a first responder on scenes of multiple shootings, I’ve often heard the incident would be reported as one shooting!
The Truth about Chicago’s Crime stats that nobody will ever know about except the readers of this great truthful piece. Chicago Politicians have been fudging Crime figures for decades but Lightfoot and her Puppet Top Cop have Olympic Gold medals for just outright deceiving the public with virtually no feedback from a lazy undermanned Press corps. Comparing 2022s to 2021s Crime stats is like comparing the Murders at Little Big Horn the day after Custer and his men were slaughtered. Chicago’s Cops are undermanned, demoralized, and are lacking miserably in LEADERSHIP which are kept literally with leashes and collars by… Read more »
By the way, Bob. Is there anything you can share with readers here on how the politicization of promotions and appointments in CPD? Is that much of a problem and if so, how, and for roughly how long? If anyone else has some informed perspectives, jump in.
Those so-called Merit Promotions can be traced to some powerhouse Politicians who are responsible for Promotions not on Merit but the usual cronies system. Even the Department of Justice called it out. The Interim Superintendent From Los Angeles banned them but this Political Puppet Lightfoot has installed has quietly brought them back. Some of these guys have had 3 promotions and are now actually dictating policy and have no clue what they are doing. When the TOP fails everything else crashes down. I have never seen such demoralized, exhausted, and leaderless ranks in my entire career and beyond. On Top… Read more »
Interesting that the FBI, always above reproach and worthy of our trust and admiration since J. Edgar and his boyfriend created it, is “encouraging “ Chicago and other cities to adopt the NIBRS system. And we all know what “encouragement” from the fed looks like. Seems as if this NIBRS system has the potential to maintain the record of incumbents being re-elected at an astounding rate nationally. Crime a problem? I’ll carefully select my base year and prove it isn’t. Sunshine and lollipops. And Mayor Lightfoot and her cronies are better than most. You’re thinkin’ of votin’ for da udder… Read more »
Absolutely
Of course it all depends on the base line…Like Biden and Harris saying we had zero inflation in the last month…The worst part is that it is an intentional effort to deceive, when the most honest thing would be to report the facts and work on fixing the problem. But politicians are not about fixing problems. Politicians are about getting re-elected, staying in power, and reaping the financial rewards that flow from pulling strings.
It surprises me not that crime is under-reported. When I was growing up, numerous criminal acts were perpetrated against me over the course of about seven years. Of those, only one was reported to the police, the theft of a bicycle. Why weren’t the others reported? First of all, because I didn’t think it would make a difference or do any good. The mugging, or jumping in the streets, or the chases or intimidation tactics, from people not from our neighborhood, occurred so often that, thanks be to God, that 7 or 8 or 9 or 10 years old kid… Read more »
As usual the suitor gets it right!
Time to bring back the Italian Mafia. People probably actually felt safer at that time.
The Great Unraveling is the perfect term.
I long for the days of MAGA.
You wouldn’t do anything differently if you were intentionally trying to hurt Chicagoans.
Lies, damn lies, and statistics. Beetlejuice has followed the example of the White House in manipulating data to make things seem better than we all know in our guts. It’s quite unseemly to watch our leaders do this solely to make them look better. God forbid, speak compassionately to your constituents.
Nice digging into the data, and explaining the data, by Matt.
If only you’d choose to forsake the travel, I’d support you wholeheartedly for Mayor of Chicago.
Matt has my vote!
But talk about inheriting a mess!!!