Note, especially, his comment about actuaries, whose bad assumptions are a keystone of our pension crisis, from 1975:

“Consulting actuaries are very good at making calculations. They are frequently terrible at making the assumptions upon which the calculations are based. In fact, they may well be peculiarly ill-equipped to make the most important assumptions if the world is one of economic discontinuities. They are trained to be conventional. Their self-interest in obtaining and retaining business would be ill-served if they were to become more than mildly unconventional.”


“Earthquake risk”: Warren Buffett’s pension management advice from 1975