New IRS migration data: Illinois third-biggest loser of people, biggest loser of incomes, to other states in 2019 – Wirepoints

By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner

A Wirepoints analysis of the Internal Revenue Service’s just-released 2019 migration data shows Illinois lost, on net, 82,000 residents to other states that year. The state ranked third-worst nationally for net resident losses, both in nominal terms and per capita.

Illinois’ tax base also took a hit as a result of that flight, losing a net $6 billion in taxable income (AGI) to other states. That, too, was the third-worst performance in the country. But when measured as a share of total income, Illinois’ losses were the nation’s worst.

The new IRS data confirms what the recent decennial census numbers for Illinois showed: the state is a loser in the competition of people and their wealth. The census numbers reported Illinois was one of just three states nationally to lose population between 2010 and 2020. West Virginia and Mississippi were the other two states.

Wirepoints’ analysis uses national state-by-state migration data compiled by the Internal Revenue Service. The IRS reviews tax returns annually to track when and where people move. It also aggregates the ages, income brackets and adjusted gross incomes of filers. 

That data shows Illinois continued to be a national outlier in 2019 when it comes to losing people and the money they earn:

  • Illinois lost 81,770 net tax filers and their dependents in 2019. Illinois’ losses were the third worst in the country, with only California and New York losing more residents, 165,355 and 152,703, respectively.
  • On a per capita basis, Illinois also ranked 3rd-worst for out-migration, with net losses of 0.64 percent of its population. Only Alaska and New York fared worse, with losses of 1.02 percent and 0.78 percent of their populations, respectively.
  • Illinois lost $6.0 billion in Adjusted Gross Income to net out-migration in 2019. Illinois’ losses were the third worst in the country, with only New York and California losing more AGI, $9.0 billion and $8.8 billion, respectively.
  • But based on a percentage of total income, Illinois ranked worst nationally for income losses. Illinois lost 1.41 percent of its total AGI in 2019. Alaska and New York ranked second and third, with losses of 1.35 percent and 1.1 percent of their total incomes, respectively.

  • The three biggest gainers nationally of people and their incomes in 2019 were Florida, Texas and Arizona. Florida was the biggest winner by far, gaining a net 126,789 people and $17.7 billion in AGI. Texas gained 114,194 people and $4.0 billion in AGI. Arizona gained 65,967 people and $3.8 billion in AGI.

Illinois’ deeper losses

The Illinoisans who fled in 2019 earned, on average, nearly $21,000 more than the residents Illinois gained from other states. Outgoing residents earned nearly $92,000, while incoming residents made just $71,000. That’s the biggest gap since at least 2000, based on Wirepoints analysis of the IRS data.

So not only is Illinois losing people outright, but the people moving into Illinois make far less than those who are leaving.

The problem with Illinois’ chronic outflows is that one year’s losses don’t only affect the tax base the year they leave, but they also hurt all subsequent years. The losses pile up on top of each other, year after year. And when you lose income to other states for 19 straight years, the numbers add up.

In 2019 alone, Illinois would have had nearly $60 billion more in AGI to tax had it not been for the state’s string of yearly losses in income. 

When we add up Illinois’ losses since 2000, Illinois has lost a cumulative $468 billion in AGI that it could have taxed over the 2000-2019 period. 

**********

Illinois is chronically losing its population and its tax base. It is a national outlier. The outflow is particularly alarming given the state’s pension shortfall, which is already the highest in the nation. As the state’s population and tax base continue to shrink, the risk of insolvency for the state continues to rise. 

And more tax hikes will only exacerbate the situation – Illinoisans already face some of the highest total tax burdens in the nation, according to Kiplinger and Wallethub.

The Illinois legislature, as evidenced in its most recent session, shows no signs of pursuing the spending and pension reforms needed to make Illinois competitive again. Until that changes, expect the Illinois exodus to continue.

Read more about why Illinoisans are leaving:

Appendix

19 Comments
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NoHope4Illinois
2 years ago

In case you missed it, in the free Red State of Florida Gov DeSantis just signed a budget with a $180M tax cut, and reported FL added to it’s rainy day fund bringing it to $10B, or 10% of the budget. This does not count ANY of Biden’s stimmy money.

The seperation between free and prosperous Red States and tyrannical debtor Blue States is widening.

Thee Jabroni
2 years ago

Was just in Key West last week,WAAAAY better state then this one,the politicians here dont seem to get it,one enormous clown show and JB is the ring leader!!

Fed up neighbor
2 years ago
Reply to  Thee Jabroni

Like I’ve said before Chuckles the Clown

Thee Jabroni
2 years ago

yep,like the atomic bomb-“little fat boy”!

Jockey
2 years ago

I’m weary of the “FL is the best Red State ever” b.s.

DeSantis won by a razor thin margin of 34k votes to a drug addict.

debtsor
2 years ago
Reply to  Jockey

I think he’s proven himself quite capable. The democrat party in FL is DOA. I read a few months back that the FL R party had millions of dollars in the war chest but the Democrat party had only five figures. Kind of like IL except reversed.

NoHope4Illinois
2 years ago
Reply to  Jockey

That’s Ok.

US News declared FL to have the best public university system in America. Lowest tax per person. And there are more accolades.

Aaron
2 years ago
Reply to  Jockey

Razor thin due to election fraud.

Kimberly Brandt
2 years ago

Got that right .. i fled the blue state of Illinois right over to the beautiful red state of Missouri ..

Old Spartan
2 years ago

This information ought to scare the living daylights out of every public official in Illinois, as well as every intelligent business person, chamber of commerce type, and any Illinoisan with a three digit IQ. But when you watch what just went on in Springfield the last month, I guess they don’t care.

Fed up neighbor
2 years ago
Reply to  Old Spartan

Exactly they don’t care.

Aaron
2 years ago

Yes, they care. Money is power. If the money leaves, they, the communist democraps have more power. more. More. MORE! Ah ha ha ha ha.

Ex Illini
2 years ago
Reply to  Old Spartan

The public officials in Illinois choose to ignore this data and believe the apples to oranges census bureau lie that Jabba engineered. The population decline in Illinois is certain to continue. An aging population base, anti business Governor, brutal taxes and awful climate are just a few of the reasons.

LessonLearned
2 years ago

Remember, the covid impact started in 2020 and the census was done prior to 2020. I suspect that the 2020/2021 out migration will be worse than the 2019 numbers. Don’t let the recent hot housing market fool you into thinking your Illinois home is suddenly a good investment. The gap between Illinois home appreciation and other states still exists. That means the longer you wait to leave Illinois the more it will cost you.

Admin
2 years ago
Reply to  LessonLearned

To be precise, the as-of date for the census was 4/1/20. Anecdotally, the big flight seemed to accelerate later, in the summer, after the Michigan Ave riots. And most people can’t just up and leave. You have to find a new job, maybe wait till your kids finish in their school, sell home, buy home, etc. It can easily take five years to leave once you’ve decided to do so.

Indy
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

Not with work from home and the lasting trend in that direction.
The housing market is the only thing holding people back. If there we’re a greater supply of homes the migration would be much larger.

Ann S
2 years ago
Reply to  Indy

I’d like to see my truck driving husband work from home. Like Mark stated, it’s not always that easy to just pick up and leave. Good for those who can, but not feasible for all due to multiple factors.

Aaron
2 years ago
Reply to  Ann S

Illinois need people to stay to foot the bill. Good for those who choose to stay and pay the democraps.

klyde
2 years ago
Reply to  LessonLearned

I am waiting for the pigs in Springfield and Chicago to figure out a way to charge people to leave, thereby forcing people to stay and pay for their abuses.
The midterm elections should hopefully slow the federal damages being done by king Biden, but Illinois will never correct itself.

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WIREPOINTS ORIGINAL STORIES

A statewide concern: Illinois’ population decline outpaces neighboring states – Wirepoints on ABC20 Champaign

“We are not in good shape” Wirepoints’ Ted Dabrowski told ABC 20 Champaign during a segment on Illinois’ latest population losses. Illinois was one of just three states to shrink in the 2010-2020 period and has lost another 300,000 people since then. Ted says things need to change. “It’s too expensive to live here, there aren’t enough good jobs and nobody trusts the government anymore. There’s just other places to go where you can be more satisfied.”

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