By: Mark Glennon and John Klingner*
Are political preferences truly behind the census data showing migration away from places dominated by Democrats? Where is that heading?
We finally have at least some empirical evidence for the answers beyond the net population changes which we’ve already seen showing flight from blue states. It’s a national survey conducted by the Trafalgar Group last month indicating that America may be politically segregating at a much faster pace than is apparent from net population changes.
The national survey asked likely voters, “Have you moved in the last 3 years, or plan to move in the next year, to a region that aligns more closely with your political and/or personal beliefs?”
Over 4% of Republicans and independents said they had already moved, in the last three years, to a region more closely aligned with their political beliefs.
Far more importantly, over 10% of Republicans and over 9% of Independents say they plan to move in the next year to a region in which they are more politically aligned.
Just as significantly, those numbers are far smaller for Democrats. Results are summarized here:
If those answers are even close to accurately reflecting the direction of political migration, a national re-sorting is unfolding on an historic scale and it’s mostly right-of-center voters who are moving, though a few caveats are in order.
First, it’s possible survey respondents exaggerated since it implies that 10.7 million voters will be moving in the next twelve months for a region to which they are more aligned. That’s a large number given that only around 30 million Americans (not just voters) have moved annually for any reason over the last several years, according to the Census Bureau.
On the other hand, in earlier periods moving was far more common, often exceeding 40 million Americans annually in the 1980s and 1990s, so perhaps the survey reflects a coming return to high migration rates thanks to growing political division.
It’s also possible that far more people are moving for political reasons than a survey would uncover. A person who cares nothing about politics might well say, for example, that she moved to Florida for a good job, low taxes and less crime, not recognizing such things are inherently political.
Second, the survey asked about moves to a different region, which may or may not be a different state, so you cannot necessary let the survey characterize all interstate migration. Intrastate political migration happens, too. For example, liberals in southern Illinois may move to Chicago; conservatives in Portland may head to eastern Oregon and liberals in upstate New York might prefer NYC.
Still, what’s striking about the survey results is how much more likely Republicans and Independents are inclined to move for political reasons than Democrats. The survey therefore certainly does seem to confirm that political preference is a major factor behind the recently released new Census Bureau estimates of interstate migration. For 2022, the bureau estimated particularly severe population losses for New York, Illinois, California and other blue states, with Texas and Florida as the big winners. Taking the survey and census numbers together, in other words, certainly seems to indicate that conservatives and independents are fleeing the most liberal states and dominating interstate migration.
It’s key to remember, when thinking specifically about political segregation, that net population changes shown in census numbers don’t really matter. Net population changes may be small or large for any given state, but they say nothing about the gross numbers moving in and out, which are always far higher than the net. If those gross in and out numbers are based on politics, then the nation is politically segregating at much faster pace than is apparent.
The implications for America are huge. As right-of-center people move to more right-of-center places and vice versa, their new jurisdictions will be more inclined to accommodate them politically, expanding the division and becoming more still more unwelcoming to the other side.
We’ve seen much of that already. For example, Illinois voted in November to constitutionally outlaw right-to-work while Tennessee voted to enshrine it; some conservative states strictly limited abortion after the Dobbs decision while some liberal states moved to further protect it; and many states adopted voting procedures designed to favor the party in power.
If the net result is accelerating population gains for conservative states, their political power will likewise expand. If just the most recent interstate migration trends continue, without any acceleration, the next Congressional seat allocation in 2030 will mean gains of four House seats for Texas and three for Florida, with losses of 5, 3 and 2 for California, New York and Illinois, respectively, according to Michael Li, an analyst at the Brennan Center.
The Trafalgar survey is just a start. Much more research on this topic is badly needed. Given its importance, political scientists and pollsters should be all over this, targeting people who are confirmed movers with multiple, specific questions about their reasons for moving, where they left and where they went.
Call it what you want – the U-Haul Revolution, the Great Re-Sort or the National Divorce – it’s underway, it’s important and we need much better research on it.
States are “the laboratories of democracy,” as Justice of the Supreme Court Louis Brandeis famously wrote. Some are thriving and some are failing miserably. Get used to it. It’s working beautifully.
*Mark Glennon is founder and John Klingner is Senior Policy Analyst of Wirepoints.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- Red states Texas, Florida crush blue New York, California and Illinois when it comes to 2022 population growth – A Wirepoints 50-state survey
- New 2022 Census data: Illinois’ population down another 104,000, nation’s 3rd-worst drop
- DeSantis’s Florida blows away entire country in competition for people and their wealth
- Illinois has been bleeding its wealthiest residents for years. Now it’s Ken Griffin’s turn to leave.
A set of state lawmakers want to extend CPS’ current school closing moratorium to February 1, 2027 – the same year CPS is set to transition to a fully-elected school board. That means schools like Manley High School, with capacity for more than 1,000 students but enrollment of just 78, can’t be closed for anther three years. The school spends $45,000 per student, but just 2.4% of students read at grade level.
Hopefully, all media will get the message, in Illinois, too.
Ted joined Tom Miller of WJPF to talk about Illinois’ highest-in-the-nation property taxes, why lawmakers don’t want to touch the tax’s cost drivers, just how much Illinoisans’ tax burden has grown over the decades, why Gov. Pritzker failed to meet his promise to reform property taxes, and more.
Very few people that leave Illinois ever come back. Many people leave other states to come back one day. Only the mentally challenged come back.
Southern states make sense if you hate winter weather. Some of us however hate 9 months of hot humid weather. To each their own. This lifelong downstate Illinoisan is looking at Indiana. The red wave washed over the Hoosier state unimpeded. We’re looking for our wooded piece of heaven in western Indiana with just a short drive home to see the kids and grands.
I’m with you, Jay. I like the seasons. We need at least one bastion of sanity to form somewhere with seasons.
LOL, I feel no pity for the IN Democrat Party. It’s been two months since the election, and their outdated website still says “Project Rebuild: We’re rebuilding Party infrastructure from the ground up so we can hit the ground running in the 2022 elections.”
That didn’t work out so well for them!
Anybody who lives in the South knows this without the survey. My state, and specific town, have had an influx of Northern Republicans who bring their money with them. We were already a high median-income town (part of the appeal for out-of-staters) and we’re just becoming more posh. We are not affected locally by Biden’s border invasion and we do not have homeless. Why? No social programs and the laws are enforced. Crime has not increased; we support our police and have hired more. The biggest news story of the year was about a conflict over architecture downtown and the… Read more »
Have you seen any concerns that the new arrivals bring their bad ways with them? In some places, that has clearly been a problem, Austin TX being a clear example — overrun with California-style libs.
Austin Has Been Invaded by Texas:The progressive paradise is over for some, and they’re fleeing to bluer pastures.
Nov 5, 2022
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/11/the-people-fleeing-austin-because-texas-is-too-conservative.html
Yes. I sent that to a friend in Austin and he responded by saying, “It’s working.” Seriously, it would be interesting to know how much of that is truly going on — libs moving to lib places. The Trafalgar survey says they do less moving for politics, but it’s probably not insignificant.
I love Chicago and Cook County. I have been informed that my medical debt will be erased because I live in CC. Said it was part of Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan. At least the D’s are looking out for the people that need help. Don’t think any of the red counties signed up for this program. Sucks for them but great for city people. Maybe the trailer parks will start voting blue in future elections.
Gimme, gimme, gimme.
Who do you think it actually is picking up the tab for your medical care? It’s those poor people in the trailer parks, paying taxes and buy scratch off tickets so your masters can buy more votes.
You have a morally disgusting attitude.
So you agreed to incur the debt, but you also agreed to pay it back, didn’t you? Is there no moral hazard in wiping away your obligation at the expense of someone else? Of course there is. And just because of your address you benefit from debt forgiveness? Seems like just another form of discrimination. When and where does it end?
The ultra-liberal business plan is failing nationwide, and the conservative business plan is succeeding. In other words, 50 separate tests are showing socialism is losing to capitalism. The result is a slow national reorg. It was predictable as is the future increasing speed of the reorg. If the poll is reliable, and many remaining conservatives and independents are looking to leave Illinois soon, that means when the next election comes, the only way the results will be different is if the hard-core Democrats/Liberals start voting Republican/Conservative. What are the chances of that happening? Those of you sticking it out in… Read more »
The Normies have had enough.
Dems won’t leave Illinois because the government will support them whether they need that support or not. Illinois will use OPM to support these people. That’s why so many other people are leaving Illinois. So glad I didn’t move to Texas though, even with all their benefits that state is still a mess. It’s not turning out the way they advertised it would.
Texas really has something for everyone. If you like San Francisco then Austin is your town. While no state is perfect, it has been a little gem of “Southern Hospitality” in my opinion. DFW is by no means uniquely perfect but it is better than Chicago and Illinois. By far. Texas is what the country will look like after decades of Latino immigration. With bust out Beto still gaining 40% of the vote, one could only wonder how long Texans can fight off the Socialists. I am sure Texas will eventually change. But not for now. It felt good voting… Read more »
The only hope for those who remain in IL is for continued federal bail-outs for mismanaged states. Otherwise, taxes and user fees would soar to unthinkable levels to perpetuate the abuse of taxpayers.
I’m not suggesting a civil war will ensue, but if this trend continues, and very likely will accelerate, the polarization may become permanent, causing an economic and political schism between red and blue states. That is not a healthy environment for a republic. Even if people remain in Illinois, moving elsewhere within it, the polarization will create enmity within.
However, I sympathize with those seeking to Illinexit. The list of reasons has only expanded during the Pritzker regime. So many financial, political and social reasons to find peace and a better life elsewhere. Invest in U-Haul stock (UHAL).
Hence, why the Democrats want to get rid of the Electoral College. I moved to Nevada for lower taxes. It is mostly a “blue state”. Supermajority in the legislature, both Senators, most Representatives, and most state offices. The Democrats gerrymandered the state to keep it as blue as it is; combined with ballot harvesting. New Republican governor. We will see what happens but I told my contractor if this state stays blue I am out of here too. Texas or Florida will be my next stop most probably. In states like CA, NY, IL, the choice is fight or move.… Read more »
It’s more Sisyphean than Pyrrhic because any progress we make – like a Republican Gov. in 2014, we just lose ground on the other side as the boulder rolls down the other side of the hill.
This survey may be showing the flywheel effect on political influenced moves. The more people move for this reason the greater the pressure on those who have not yet moved.
We moved from Illinois to Tennessee when I retired a couple of years ago and find discussions around town or at work that happen to turn political much more comfortable and less confrontational. This is certainly more enjoyable than conversations had become in Illinois for a few years before we left. Political leadership down here appears to be advocating for us rather than fighting us like in Illinois.
This is a great point. The marginal cost of staying increases when people like you move
I very much welcome the coming schism in America – it will bring great clarity.
Agreed. Discipline is painful but essential.
Indeed. We are pilgrims now.
Pilgrims. Great word for it. I will start stealing that.
might bring some violence
Already has (in blue states).
Many people are ashamed to admit to anyone that they are from Illinois.
Let the Democrats eat their own young. Illinois is DOA. The more republicans that move out the more democrats stay and eat the carcass of a dead animal. Once a great state to live in is now a great state to leave. The line to get out is growing faster and faster. Other states have their problems, but nothing like Illinois. Give it the finger as you cross the state line to greener pastors. Anyone that leaves is tens of thousands of dollars ahead.
It is about $1100 / month savings for me. Move and fund your own retirement.
My numbers are similar.
“pastures,” unless you follow some eco-minded sect.
I concur that tax savings can be just that high, but note that where Illinois taxes producing income, Tennessee taxes consuming it. To us this mattered immensely as we are trying to fund future care for our disabled child, in her name. Seeing 5% of her proceeds stolen every year when she has barely begun consuming it was a very very bad effect.
It’s not so much political beliefs that made us move, it was financial. $10K less in property taxes, less sales tax, no billions in pension debt. Of course, there aren’t any blue states that fit that financial outlook, it is Democratic policies that cause those financial problems in blue states, with no acknowledgement of the problems.
I congratulate you on your move. I’m still trying to figure out my exit plan. However, please make sure you get involved, ASAP, in a conservative organization or two…..especially a voter integrity organization, to preserve and save your new state from the leftist rot that is seeking to take swing states and red states down. Simply voting isn’t enough anymore. Illinois is likely beyond saving at this point but make no mistake, the leftists won’t stop their ruination. Make sure to take an active role in saving your new state.
We too are saving more than $10k per year on property taxes. The kicker is that most of the schools down in our new county score higher than the Illinois district that we left.
We are also not being feed to death. Our sales tax is 9.25% compared to our Illinois sales tax of 8.25%. A small price to pay in order to avoid the large increases Illinoisans will see in the very near future.
Assuming you are in TN. If you move to Tri Cities you can cross into VA for lower sales tax.. I am in Florida, 7% sales tax, no state income tax, low property taxes and gas is 2.64 a gallon.
Florida made my final list. I opted for Tennessee. It’s more conservative, not so hot, and just a one day drive to Chicago when I visit remaining family.
Believe me, I know. I may still move to TN. Down here when I go to the store, normally wearing an FJB or “Don’t blame me, I voted for Trump” shirt or something similar I always get thumbs up and compliments from people I’ve never seen or met. And when the Prius’s have NRA stickers on them you know you’re in redneck heaven.
It’s tough to not fall under the magical, tropical spell of Florida. Many of us have fond vacation memories from that state. Of course, that was before Disney went ultra-liberal.
Look at their financials. They figured out what Trump said was true about going woke. Voting with you wallet sends a very unequivocal message.
Disney is ideologically driven. They’ll continue to produce woke drivel even if it loses money, even if it bombs, even if it angers parents. They’ve been doing this for several years now. The new CEO (same as the old CEO) is just as woke and leftie as the previous guy. Nothing will change. They’re on a course of self-destruction
Basically all of Florida north of Disney is quite conservative. So is the entire west coast except for Tampa/St Pete metro, and that’s marginal.
Leave the democrats in their failed states –and start building walls around the successful GOP led states — to keep out libtard refugees.
I’m sure you mean a metaphorical wall. We can’t seem to build a real wall, but can spend billions on others’ walls.