13 Illinois counties among the top 50 property markets nationwide most ‘at-risk’ of a downturn – Wirepoints Quickpoint

By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner

Illinois is home to 13 of the nation’s 50 housing markets that are most at-risk of a downturn. That’s according to a recent report by ATTOM Data Solutions, a company that provides comprehensive data on property values and taxes across the nation.

The Chicagoland area is, collectively, among the most “vulnerable to decline” property markets in the nation. Property in Kane County is the 6th most at-risk of a decline. Will County is 8th. McHenry is 13th and Cook County is the nation’s 20th most at-risk. 

A look at a county-by-county graphic shows that no counties in Illinois’ neighboring states made the top-50 list. On the contrary, Wisconsin had six of the least at-risk counties in the nation (Brown County, Dane County, Eau Claire County, La Crosse County, Washington County and Winnebago County).

Other very at-risk U.S. locations include inland California, New Jersey, Delaware and New York City.

ATTOMs’ analysis was based on a variety of metrics, including an area’s general property costs, amount of underwater loans and foreclosures, and its unemployment rate. 

The company’s metrics mirror Wirepoints’ own concerns about Illinois: its high taxes, poor jobs climate and its growing out-migration. We break those issues out in the following articles:

Appendix

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schenk.c.a
11 months ago

But we have never had an upturn in the housing prices in McHenry County. Our home is worth less than what we paid for it in 2002..

Freddy
11 months ago
Reply to  schenk.c.a

Same here in Rockford. Extremely high property taxes have diminished home values. The tax rate here went down but taxes are up. Ptell has a lot to do with that. You are in a ptell county just like I am. With Ptell taxing bodies can get what was levied (not billed or collected) the year before regardless of property values. Anyone getting an abatement or incentive to build there the tax rate goes up to compensate and that includes all exemptions. This was never brought up when they pushed people into voting for it. Even with record low interest rates… Read more »

Susan
11 months ago
Reply to  schenk.c.a

True. In Woodstock CUSD 200, property tax rates have ranged from 3% lows to nearly 5% for over a decade. Trending upward again given unrelenting higher public spending burdening stagnant property values.

No contributory development possible due to large TIF footprint in Woodstock.
This economic downturn will be devastating for all property values outside TIF.

Bross
11 months ago

Why not offer teachers salaries 2x the current rate that has social security and 401k retirement? It would get IL out of the whole pension mess…just an idea…

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Bross

No it wouldn’t. The pension debt would still remain.

Aaron
11 months ago
Reply to  Bross

It is not your place to offer solutions. It is your place and obligation to work until death paying PPF’s pension.

Mike
11 months ago

Man oh man Illinois really sucks!

Won
11 months ago

That’s what u get when you pay for something not worth it. When I bought my house I knew I couldn’t lose any value. It’s worth what the loan was worth and I said to my self wait till these people get screwed in there 400,000 dollar homes.

Marie
11 months ago

Deplorable numbers don’t bother Blue State politicians. This is what they want. We don’t know what they plan to do about this as it continues to get worse. As counties implode and the great exodus continues, how do politicians expect to get paid or subsidize pet projects? There won’t be any companies or employees to fund government pensions.There will be no new builds or new hires, no tax revenue. Democrats won’t take responsibility for any of this. Seems like the only plan is to go down in flames AND take us with them, whether we voted for them or not.

Jose Avila
11 months ago
Reply to  Marie

You know Illinois is run by republicans, the governor is a Democrat. So the blames goes both ways.

Gerald Titus
11 months ago
Reply to  Jose Avila

Not sure what you are basing that comment on, Demos have controlled all 3 (Gov, House, Senate) 16 out the last 20 years.

Waggs
11 months ago
Reply to  Gerald Titus

And with a supermajority in the GA as well.

Da Judge
11 months ago
Reply to  Jose Avila

Jose, Did you take a short bus to school?!!

Clark Erickson
11 months ago
Reply to  Jose Avila

Jose, my man, give up tik tok for a week and read a paper, you are seriously in lack of facts

SadStateofAffairs
11 months ago
Reply to  Jose Avila

Illinois has really never been truly run by a Republican majority in the governor’s mansion and the legislature. It had governor’s like Edgar and Thompson who operated from the center. Most of the last 30 years under Madigan have been under his complete control. There is no real opposition party which is a part of this massive problem.

Fullbladder
11 months ago
Reply to  Jose Avila

Ok Jose!

Hale DeMar
11 months ago

It’s little wonder that when my contemporaries and neighbors have the opportunity to depart for Arizona, Florida or Tennessee they do ! When eight out of ten black births occur in fatherless homes, there’s hardly a bright future for these urban cesspools. This is a trend that will only accelerate. Wishing-Hoping otherwise, nothing but folly.

Old Joe
11 months ago
Reply to  Hale DeMar

Hmm, could that sociological outcome be caused by “Systemic Racism?”

RedRaspberry
11 months ago
Reply to  Old Joe

It looks like it’s Dem areas in Illinois though, at least large urban cities included.

K6
11 months ago
Reply to  Old Joe

Systemic gaslighting. When you get on the government cheese. You are keeping yourself very limited. You can not get rich quick.Get out educate yourself. Work hard.

Fullbladder
11 months ago
Reply to  Old Joe

No Old Joe, it’s caused by CULTURE.

mmack
11 months ago

Interesting that DuPage county isn’t on that list. Have they got “Magic Dirt” that protects them?

Fight Harder
11 months ago
Reply to  mmack

DuPage dirt runs true blue. Inconceivable they are not the list. There is no escape from the pain coming.

sue
11 months ago
Reply to  Fight Harder

ABSOLUTELY FALSE

jajujon
11 months ago
Reply to  mmack

I’m a former DuPage County resident. They were running balanced budgets and a surplus in 2022. The 2023 budget included measures to reduce property taxes. That’s why they are the donut hole in the map up above. Democrats, however, are moving in, bringing their ideologies, voting tendencies and destructive policies with them. The Board chair is a Democrat, Deb Conroy; possibly the first in the county’s history. The transition to purple seems complete. The donut hole will eventually be filled in.

Eugene from a payphone
11 months ago
Reply to  jajujon

DuPage also has an incredible number of profitable businesses located within its boundaries. The thinking seems to be that good government attracts successful businesses and encourages healthy economies. How wrong can they get?

sue
11 months ago
Reply to  mmack

BELIEVE THEY HAVE REPUBLICANS RUNNING LOCAL GOV’T NOT BRAIN DEAD SOCIALISTS

SadStateofAffairs
11 months ago
Reply to  sue

The collar counties have been slowly moving blue over the last 10 years, see Sean Casten and Lauren Underwood for starters. Assuming the votes are on the up and up and there is not wholesale cheating going on, they will be solid blue and that’s only a matter of time. Their school districts are union, woke, and fairly communist. The city halls on the other hand are not falling overnight but they will. These counties are surrounded and are slowly being impacted by their proximity to the source of the real problem, Cook and Chicago. Property taxes in the collar… Read more »

Last edited 11 months ago by SadStateofAffairs
Nz
11 months ago

They have been going blue due to the gerrymandering of voting districts by Madigan and the Democrat machine that has ruined the state

jajujon
11 months ago
Reply to  sue

Sue, stop typing in all caps. IT SEEMS YOU’RE YELLING!

ToughLove
11 months ago

Not a single Tennessee county on the worst 50 list. I love it when Wirepoints finds data that validates my move from Illinois. Thanks Ted and John.

Poor Taxpayer
11 months ago

They have taxed the equity out of the houses. Texas and Florida make the homeowners money.

Freddy
11 months ago
Reply to  Poor Taxpayer

This is the main reason. https://www.rps205.com/205vibe/205-vibe-news/defult-post-page-clone-clone-clone/~board/news/post/rps-205-teachers-agree-to-4-year-contract
All these contracts are made behind closed doors without any public input from taxpayers. No one knows the details until it’s ratified. The media/mayor/state reps/governor/etc cannot be in any of these negotiations. Transparency is sorely needed. Don’t forget these are “public” institutions but are run like private corporations.The only stockholders are the employees. The public has no say. If tuition was charged most people would demand that they have a more integral part in costs.

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Freddy

“The public has no say.” The public has a say in who they elect not every little contract that is negotiated. We have a representative government and we are not going to negotiate every government contract on CSPAN or some local cable network. It’s just not realistic. If you are unhappy about the outcomes of these contracts then you have the right to select different representation. I’m curious what you find so egregious about this contract. The state minimum wage for a teacher is 40k per year. They are barely paying above minimum wage. At the other end of the… Read more »

debtsor
11 months ago

The teacher can quit if they don’t like the new contract.

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  debtsor

That’s true. They can also strike and withhold their labor if they don’t like it. As is their constitutional right.

You can also move away if you don’t like the government of Illinois or work on getting new leadership elected. We all have choices. Life is good.

debtsor
11 months ago

Teachers going on strike, just like abortion, is morally reprehensible, but unfortunately legal. We live in IL, where’s it’s encouraged to harm the children. I’m not a religious guy, but if I were, I’d believe that the wrath of God would come down pretty hard on the Democrats voters of this state.

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  debtsor

What an absurd opinion but you are certainly welcome to it. It would be morally reprehensible to force people to work for a wage that they don’t agree with. They are trading labor, not for free, but for an agreed upon price. You want them to work even though you don’t want to reach an agreement on costs. Instead of just walking away from a bad offer and being forced to quit, they have the right to negotiate collectively. You’re fine if they withhold their labor as an individual (quitting) but just don’t like it that they can do the… Read more »

Fight Harder
11 months ago

Public Unions receive dues generated from public funds and use them to “lobby” the representatives that negotiate the contracts. It’s a broken system and is killing the state. Its unethical if not illegal. We can’t even fight this in a court because of this exact same issue. Fair wage for fair labor, what a joke!!!

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Fight Harder

Public unions receive funding from their members not taxpayers. It’s not the publics money but the members. It’s not unethical or illegal.

Freddy
11 months ago

Respectfully disagree. The members of the public union get paid for services they provide that are paid for by the taxpayers mostly homeowners via property taxes. So directly they pay but indirectly we pay. They have the right to do what they want with their money so there is no argument there.

Facts before storyline
11 months ago

It is 100% the public’s money as the teachers are paid out of property taxes, and the dues flow to the unions. It is ALL the public’s money and teachers contribute next to nothing to their pension. Illinois is also one of four states left who’s teachers contribute nothing to social security. The state can’t service the interest on debt they owe the pension fund and continue to kick the can down the road, all with the backing of the union. CTU has done more to murder black teens in Chicago than any gun, a mayor elect wants to defund… Read more »

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago

Once that money is paid it is no longer the taxpayers money and completely belongs to the teachers. Taxpayers pay for services not union dues. It’s not your money.

Marie
11 months ago

You say once that money is paid, It is no longer taxpayer’s money so I guess that means before that money is paid it is taxpayer money? Don’t paid teachers services include their pensions? If not receiving teachers pay there would be no pensions. Teachers contributions don’t subsidize their whole pension so where does the rest come from?

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Marie

It doesn’t matter it’s part of their pay that was agreed upon in their contract. Teachers agreed to exchange their labor for the financial gain. They don’t need to pay money to get their pension if they fulfilled their end of the contract. Once they have done that it is no longer taxpayer money but their money.

SadStateofAffairs
11 months ago

One day you will understand that labor is a commodity just like anything else. Normally it would be unacceptable to run a business where the product is inferior, service is poor, or the product fails completely. Why would anyone in their right mind find it acceptable for a child who reads at a third grade level? Once it becomes a commodity the parents can review alternatives and in effect shop around for better alternatives where religion, values, morals, and love and respect for country and our history is fundamental to that education and formation of the young mind. The UAW… Read more »

Freddy
11 months ago

We are required to pay for the public school system mostly thru property taxes and one’s ability to pay is not ever factored in. The value of your home or property determines how much we have to pay. Last I checked there is no net worth or asset tax in Illinois yet for many people the largest asset is their homes. There needs to be some dramatic changes on how public schools are funded like a local income tax in exchange for property tax reduction but not in addition to which would be likely if ever implemented. In Boulder,CO tax… Read more »

Marie
11 months ago

Check you facts, please.

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Marie

I’ve checked the facts and I’m correct. Thanks for having me double check though.

Marie
11 months ago

I’m sorry, I didn’t know you checked with the Illinois Policy Institute.

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Marie

Point out where I’m wrong Marie. Saying “look at IPI” isn’t really a rebuttal. Try using a couple of your brain cells to form a cogent argument.

Marie
11 months ago

Try using a couple of your brain cells to read the Illinois Policy Institute articles. This can go on forever. I’m out.

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Marie

I read that site often. Yet you can’t muster the ability to show which fact you believe I have wrong. Early dementia is clearly setting in for you. I’m happy you are “out”. Get some rest.

Last edited 11 months ago by Pensions Paid First
Bill also
11 months ago

As a former union carpenter , I wouldn’t have union contractors work on or in my house . So I certainly should not have to pay for them in my government.
But I do think private unions are ok but public unions should be ended . As they are just an arm of the people that want to destroy society as we have known it.

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Bill also

That’s fine for your own house but decisions made in our state government are decided by the people of Illinois. The people have decided that they want to allow collective bargaining and believe it is a fundamental right. One of those tools at the unions disposal is striking until the terms of a fair contract are reached. You do you for your house and the rest of the state will act according to the constitution.

Some people don’t want guns in their homes but that doesn’t remove the 2nd amendment from the constitution.

Marie
11 months ago

What is a “fair contract”?

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Marie

One where both parties agree.

Marie
11 months ago

Sorry, I thought it was when one government institution is held hostage until they reluctantly agree with the other government negotiating body.

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Marie

That’s a strange definition Marie. I’m glad I could help you learn.

Aaron
11 months ago

The people want a balanced budget. Any funds from an unbalance budget are unconstitutional. Your pension is unconstitutional unless it is funded via a balanced budget.

James
11 months ago
Reply to  Aaron

Don’t you think various slickster lawyers have tried that argument and failed over and over again? I do.

jajujon
11 months ago

NOT an absurd opinion. A clear majority of states don’t allow public employees to strike. And why don’t air traffic controllers strike? Because it’s illegal. And why is it illegal? Federal legislation made it so. The ability to move people in all directions every day around the country and elsewhere is critical and fundamental to the economy of the country. They are the guardians of the sky. Likewise, aren’t teachers the guardians of our children’s education? Setting aside the stupid wokeness infiltrating the classrooms, I say yes. Therefore, they, too, shouldn’t be allowed to strike. Let a lazy county employee… Read more »

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  jajujon

Absurd was directed at the “morally reprehensible” comment not whether or not it should be legal. If the voters want that then they should vote for politicians that will change the laws. Instead voters decided to enshrine the right to collectively bargain into the constitution. Illinois and Chicago is definitely a pro union state and city so I wouldn’t expect that to change any time soon. But who knows. Also, if you want to get rid of the ability to strike then expect contracts to go to arbitration. Giving a “take it or leave it” contract typically won’t fly with… Read more »

jajujon
11 months ago

You have been consistent in your position that the voters vote what they want. But with Amendment 1 in the books, that will no longer be true regarding public sector job demands. Even politicians elected by and honoring the wishes of voters who seek to eliminate the right to strike by teachers or any public employees can do nothing short of amending an amendment. What an abomination Illinois voters have created for themselves.

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  jajujon

But with Amendment 1 in the books, that will no longer be true”

The voters added it to the constitution and the voters could remove that provision. Nothing changes. Stop acting like the voters are helpless victims. The voters want these laws and want this constitution.

jajujon
11 months ago

Helpless victims? I’ll repeat myself: They can do nothing short of amending an amendment. In other words, voters voting. You seem to suffer from “last wordism.”

Old people off the Internet
11 months ago
Reply to  debtsor

Lol said like a true Christian, xxxall over them. Likexxx our faces please [edited]

Admin
11 months ago

You’re ‘outa here.

debtsor
11 months ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

LOL I don’t even understand what he said, but bring up religion and abortion and it really triggers the crazies! I even said that I’m not a religious guy!

ToughLove
11 months ago
Reply to  debtsor

I didn’t understand it either.

Admin
11 months ago
Reply to  debtsor

Gutter language in two of his comments, which we had to delete.

Freddy
11 months ago

Every little contract? The Rockford school district has almost a $500 Million budget with declining enrollment. Teachers account for a large portion of that so taxpayers should have a say and the school board tends to always side with the teachers if not they would not be reelected. The school board cannot say what the demands are to give taxpayers a hint of what the costs would be. Not even a FOIA request is allowed. So much for being a public institution. Like I said tuition would change a lot of things. Parents can get reimbursed from the state whatever… Read more »

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Freddy

You’re struggling with representative government. That’s how we operate in this country.

You still haven’t outlined what you find upsetting about the contract. Would you have voted to reject it? If so why?

Freddy
11 months ago

Here in Illinois we have a one party representative government thanks to political boundaries/gerrymandering which whomever is in power draws the maps. It is not just the wages which for many is nowhere near outlandish but it is the benefits regardless of wages. I spoke to a paraprofessional a while back and she said she had to quit because they were paying her around $12/hr. This was a while ago. I asked how are the insurance benefits. She said she had to pay $60 per month for full coverage and she could not afford that. Within a few days the… Read more »

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Freddy

“Here in Illinois we have a one party representative government thanks to political boundaries/gerrymandering which whomever is in power draws the maps.” When was the last time someone drew the Rockford school board map? So clearly gerrymandering isn’t an issue for these contracts. “This was a while ago. I asked how are the insurance benefits. She said she had to pay $60 per month for full coverage and she could not afford that.” So it’s not affordable because this employee makes so little and your complaint is that you, the taxpayer, are too generous. Your solution is to make them… Read more »

Last edited 11 months ago by Pensions Paid First
Illinois track
11 months ago
Reply to  Freddy

Freddy – Rockford schools have a long history of mismanagement. In the 70’s we looked forward to competing against Rockford East as no other athletic team was anywhere close either nationally or at the state level. So of course Rockford schools in their incompetence cancelled all sports – needlessly vindictive and political. I kept up with some of the Rockford guys in college and they were negatively impacted by this move. Their per capita spending was nearly equal to our district’s level – the schools weren’t being run for the students.

Fight Harder
11 months ago

Dont forget, teachers work about 9 months a year. So the hourly wage is much higher. 50k out of school is better then Residents (Doctor) make and higher then the average income for most employees in Illinois. IL teachers are some of the highest paid in the nation, with modest results.

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Fight Harder

Go apply if you find it so lucrative. I’m just saying for me it’s not worth such a low wage. Work your whole career and get to a whopping 100k? No thanks.

Fight Harder
11 months ago

Ah, but there is the kicker.. you forget pension and health benefits. The take home salary is 100k but the extras are worth much much more. The level of education and responsibilities make the 100k for 9 months work reasonable but the total compensation is outrageous.

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Fight Harder

Starting out at 40k per year and getting a pension that doesn’t offer the same value as social security is not lucrative in my book. Waiting 10 years to vest and if you leave you have zero social security or pension doesn’t seem like a great deal. If that’s good enough for you, go for it. I don’t work as a teacher but I get a large 401k match, make more money, get 6 weeks off, and also have health benefits. Everyone of my friends with similar education background has the same. Sure it may look good to a non-professional… Read more »

Last edited 11 months ago by Pensions Paid First
Marie
11 months ago

I will take a pension over Social Security any time. I waited longer than most teachers to be vested in Social Securty and Social Security doesn’t give me a 3 percent annual compounded increase. Financially, I’m falling way behind my teacher friends.

James
11 months ago
Reply to  Marie

No, it didn’t. Your last SS raise a few months ago was in excess of 8%!

Pensions Paid First
11 months ago
Reply to  Marie

“Financially, I’m falling way behind my teacher friends.” I appreciate your honesty in your response. This is the reason many are upset. Public employees have something better than the private sector and many are jealous. You could have worked as a teacher but you made a different choice. Nothing stopped you from going that route but you didn’t see the long term benefits. That’s not other teachers fault but your own. “I will take a pension over Social Security any time” Well you don’t get to “take” a pension but you must earn one. Since you didn’t choose that path,… Read more »

Marie
11 months ago

There’s a lot of reasons why I didn’t choose that path. It really has nothing to do with money. But yes, my teacher friends do make more money than I do in retirement, that’s just a fact. I’m okay with my choices.

ToughLove
11 months ago
Reply to  Poor Taxpayer

Do your research before leaving Illinois. Mistakes can be very costly. For example, make sure you understand the home insurance laws/problems of Florida if that state is on your short list. Also, educate yourself about how your liberal/conservative any area is before committing.

(I haven’t had any surprises after 2+ years in Tennessee. All my costs have been as expected and the GOP dominated in recent elections.)

Indy
11 months ago
Reply to  ToughLove

That’s why Indiana & Tennessee are the smarter choices.
Plus there’s the Hurricane Ian tax coming.

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A statewide concern: Illinois’ population decline outpaces neighboring states – Wirepoints on ABC20 Champaign

“We are not in good shape” Wirepoints’ Ted Dabrowski told ABC 20 Champaign during a segment on Illinois’ latest population losses. Illinois was one of just three states to shrink in the 2010-2020 period and has lost another 300,000 people since then. Ted says things need to change. “It’s too expensive to live here, there aren’t enough good jobs and nobody trusts the government anymore. There’s just other places to go where you can be more satisfied.”

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