“Don’t frighten the children”- an actuary’s view of Illinois’ phony pension numbers
How could the state get away with lying about the size of the pension problem and why would the media be asleep at the switch? Here’s how it happens: The key number in the pension debate is the estimate of unfunded liability. Illinois claims the total unfunded liability for the five state guarantied funds is $96 billion, a figure the media endlessly repeat without scrutiny. That figure changes dramatically if you change its underlying assumptions, particularly the annual rate of return pensions expect to get on their investments. Because those assumptions are easily manipulated by politicians, the state hires an