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Summary and audio linked here.
Chicago’s political leadership is floating a pension buyout program as evidence it is seriously addressing the city’s thirty-six-billion-dollar unfunded pension liability, but Mark Glennon, founder of the Illinois policy research organization Wirepoints, said that the proposal moves debt from one column to another rather than reducing it, and that the broader fiscal picture facing the city continues to deteriorate across every measurable dimension. Audio here.
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
The state’s existing buyout program for its own pensions is the precedent for Chicago, which should be a warning: Look out for similar exaggerated claims and shoddy analysis.
Full interview and summary linked here.
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It pays to read more than the headlines. Hardly the doom and gloom that so many on this board desire.
You’re whistling past the graveyard with this take. Much of the country is in full on housing bust, especially out west and in other boom markets, and it’s making its way here. There’s a .75% rate hike coming, baked in the case, in the next few weeks, which will affect mortgage rates, housing prices and affordability. This tweet below was issued BEFORE today’s 9.1% hyperinflationary CPI… “Last year, one could buy a $500k house by borrowing $450k @ 3.25% for a monthly payment of $1958. At a 5.50% rate, that same $1958 monthly payment and $50k down payment can only… Read more »
Yet inventory remains low.
I follow these things pretty closely for my job. Inventory around the country is exploding pretty quickly. For example, “Buyers, [in Denver] who have struggled with a record-low number of listings since pandemic lockdown orders ended more than two years ago, had four times the selection available to them at the end of June as they did at the start of the year — 6,057 vs. 1,477.”
https://www.denverpost.com/2022/07/06/homes-inventory-increases-in-june/
Yet prices are still rising as noted in your article. Pretty good considering Denver has been on one hell of a run. The question becomes how desperate will home sellers be to sell their home? Will home sellers just take their home off the market and wait? How long can home buyers sit on the sidelines with rents jumping astronomically? Does a slow down in price increases or a small decline get some of these buyers off the sidelines? when? None of us truly know what will happen. My original point was that fewer home sales than the highest time… Read more »
I know exactly what is going to happen as do many, many others. We see this coming from a mile away. We are in the early stages of the crash when prices plateau while inventory spikes up. We’ve seen this all before during the previous global financial crash. This process is going to take years to play out. It’s OK to be a normie and not know what is going on. Most people aren’t as intimately familiar with the housing market. This crash is going to be worse, because during the last crash we had the specter of deflation, but… Read more »
This is all happening globally too with some places far ahead of the US. Australia is in full meltdown mode right now. Most home builders are basically insolvent: At least 15 builders have already gone bust and more could collapse https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/at-least-15-builders-have-already-gone-bust-and-more-could-collapse/news-story/edd793499f93a9461ee81b5209408ac3 New Zealand is the same way China is in full down meltdown too, with their housing sector imploding. The Evergrande thing never really went away and it’s spread all throughout the economy. They’re having 1930’s style bank runs in the rural provinces. Canada and especially Toronto is imploding. https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2022/06/home-prices-drop-toronto-market-cools/ Though the average price for the month was 9.4 per… Read more »
Here’s some stories on Chinese real estate:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-homebuyers-across-22-cities-062113892.html
https://www.archyde.com/analysis-how-bad-is-the-real-estate-market-in-china-debt-defaults-mortgage-loan-cuts-pboc-cuts-interest-rates/
Thanks for these links. I’ve been saying for over a year now that China is the canary in the coal mine, the black swan event that no one could have predicted, that causes the next global crash. that country, which is relatively new to capitalism, quite literally poured a large chunk of it’s new found wealth into poorly constructed concrete high rises in rural areas as ‘investments’ for middle class folks, shut out of every other sector of the economy. Now it’s all collapsing like a 1929 style ponzi scheme and there’s seemingly no bottom in sight. This will most… Read more »
That’s why economists are not sure about the outcome either. Just super genius internet debtsor from the internet. I’m sure you’ve sold your home and are waiting for it to bottom out. I love all the people that think they can predict any market all while complaining about the price of gas or some other taxes. You have a penchant for choosing the negative prediction and completely ignoring predictions that don’t align with your preconceived ideas. You’re one of the few “experts” that work in the field that are predicting crash worse than the last one. Now go make money… Read more »
Who says I’m not making money off this prediction? LOL Timing is everything and we’re in the early stages. I timed the last bottom near perfectly too, I still live in that house I snapped up for a song. Unfortunately, this is IL, so it’s only worth 2x as much as I paid for it, if this were some western state or FL it would be worth at least 3x as much, easily. I’m sure about this outcome, we are watching it happen all around the would right now. Easy money after coronavirus, easy lending since 2012, and it’s a… Read more »
“It’s not a matter of ‘if’ but a matter of ‘when’ the housing will lose its luster, and residential real estate prices will decline. In fact, evidence is emerging that the downward trend has already started. ‘In the US, mortgage applications have fallen by 28% from their peak, new home sales are down by 17% and housing starts have dropped by 13%,’ said Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics in a new research note. ‘A similar story is playing out in the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Sweden.’” “The fall is inevitable and the primary question now is… Read more »
Hmmmm…..I don’t understand? I thought everything was wonderful? Lori skeedaddled because this is going to be Bad News Week. When Lori returns, she’ll exit the aircraft with her fedora( The Shrieking Hat) over her face like a gangster hiding from the cameras. The chickens are coming home!
Downtown condos are headed for a crash