By Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
There’s not enough data yet to make any claims about the impact of Illinois’ elimination of cash bail, part of the SAFE-T Act implemented just two months ago. But we do know two facts that spell trouble for the city in 2024:
- Total 2023 major crimes in Chicago will end up about 60% over 2019, a post-covid record, and;
- Cook County’s jail population is at its lowest level in more than 40 years.
Despite that, where Chicago crime heads next year is still tough to guess. Has Chicago’s “crime wave” hit a peak and begun to flatten or trend down, as murders appear to be doing? Or will Chicago’s decarcerationist trend – supported by the end of cash bail and Mayor Johnson’s soft-on-crime policies – embolden criminals to do more?
Below we share the facts and what might impact the city’s 2024 crime totals.
1. Chicagoans will be victims of nearly 80,000 major crimes in 2023. That’s about 29,000 more crimes than in 2019 – an increase of nearly 60 percent. And it’s an 18 percent increase over last year.
2. Robberies, car thefts are driving 2023’s record crimes. Motor vehicle thefts still account for a vast majority of the increase in crimes over last year, with Chicagoans losing more than 25,000 cars to theft so far. That’s 56 percent more YTD than in 2022.
Robberies are next, up 25 percent compared to last year. Theft is still up 5 percent and aggravated battery is up 4 percent. Only homicides have seen a decrease, down 11 percent compared to 2022. (More on homicides below.)
3. Recent monthly crime totals have plateaued near 2022’s maximums. Chicago’s 2023 monthly crime totals were running far higher versus 2022 for most of the year. That changed in the second half of the year, with total crimes now averaging about 7,000 per month for both 2022 and 2023.
A big driver of that change is motor vehicle thefts. The number of car thefts in 2022 skyrocketed between June and October, nearly tripling over just four months. Chicago hasn’t experienced, so far, a similar jump in the second half of 2023.
4. Robberies continue to soar past their 2019, 2022 levels. Chicago’s criminals began a robbery-spree in June of this year that shows no sign of ending. Robberies have jumped more than 50 percent between June and October, with over 1,200 now happening every month.
5. Chicago’s homicides are down in 2023, but they are down in other big cities, too. Homicide is the only major crime to significantly decline this year. Through the end of October, murders are down 12 percent compared to 2022.
Other major cities have seen murders drop more than that. Los Angeles homicides are down 19 percent so far this year. Philadelphia’s are down 20%. Houston’s are down 22 percent. Only New York is down a similar 11 percent.
6. Cook County’s jail population has been cut in half over the last decade. 2013 marked a near-peak in the number of inmates in Cook County jails. Since then, the number of inmates has collapsed by more than half, reaching just 4,800 on 11/13/23. That’s the lowest number of people in jail in 40 years (excluding covid-impacted 2020). That drop reflects the ongoing push for decarceration and a reduction in efforts to deter crime. Included in that movement is Chief Judge Tim Evan’s 2017 low-bail reforms and, of course, the SAFE-T Act.
Since no-cash-bail went into effect on September 17th, the jail population has fallen 10 percent, to 4,817 from 5,419.
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Anyway you cut it, the outlook’s not good for 2024. Mayor Johnson has so far only excused crime. The ongoing trend for emptier jails will continue as no-cash bail takes full hold. And knowing how Chicago voted for mayor earlier this year, Kim Foxx’s replacement as Cook County State’s Attorney could be even more radical.
Place your bets.
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Audio and summary 
A largely unasked question is becoming glaring: Is Illinois doing all it should to use artificial intelligence to make government cost less and work better? So far, the evidence says no.
I guess this publication has an issue with posting the King of all King’s name Jesus Christ because it was taken down. I will make it 100% clear, Christ is King, he is the beginning and the end, he is the Alpha and the Omega, he is King, he is God, he is the Messiah and Savior.
We are happy to post comments based in Christianity or anything else, but we do want comments that are about the articles they go on, not broad messaging.
Ok fair enough. You do a great job exposing the insanity of the policies the Chicago politicians are putting into place.
Liberals are as Braindead as Joe Biden
I guess releasing all prisoners during the plandemic fraud wasnt such a good idea huh
Only to a liberal! They should all be places on Jeffrey Epstein Island forever!
Like Dick Durban refusing to release the list……
Because he is on the list
Typical democrat
Are you libtards going to destroy your city again when Trump wins in a landslide?
Hello everyone im a typical braindead leftist Chicago democrat who wears a mask everywhere i go, even in my car by myself, thats all
Cook County’s jail population is at its lowest level in more than 40 years, hahaha jokes on you Chicago, you morons going to keep voting democrat? lol
DEI in a nutshell
Seriously Chicago? Have you finally learned your lesson or are you going to keep getting played for the fools you have been?
Vote Trump 2024! Now I await all the pathetic moron leftist crybaby responses……lol
The amount of negativity for many of our comments is a result of seeing many years of Chicago and Illinois destroy itself to the point where many of us voted with our feet and checkbook. There is no “turning this ship around” and it’s slowly sinking to the bottom and currently it’s capsized but this isn’t Gene Hackman in the Poseidon Adventure. It’s going to take on more water where it cannot float and then begin a rapid descent to the bottom. Optimism is healthy if there is something to be optimistic about. Under Fat Fredo and Comrade Johnson there… Read more »
Start helping by finding new candidates to run in Chicago and Illinois. The Chicago democrat machine is absolutely terrified of Republicans getting elected. Get involved with the Illinois GOP, knock doors, put foot work in, get involved. Democrats can be defeated, just have to get more involved. Look at the red states and cities, way better run. Sitting back and bitching and complaining wont do anything, get involved.
There are solutions to crime problems and political corruption. Instead of complaining, we need to take action and participate in political matters. It’s that simple. We need to rally around recalling these dirty politicians. We have well over majority support.
Anyone on here claiming that nobody cares about getting assaulted or their car stolen is full of it.
I know you hate it when people point out to reality to you Dave but recalling politicians is extremely limited in Illinois. Yesterday you commented that we should recall Brandon Johnson from the mayors office even though that is not currently allowed. For a guy that thinks everyone is negative and we can all just “rah rah” our way to victory, you might want to spend 5 minutes and research if your ideas are even legally allowed. Your delusion is strong.
There’s already a website! Bills have been presented almost every year for the past few years regarding recall and referendum. Something needs to budge. People are pissed.
https://www.recallbrandonjohnson.com/
There is a 0% chance that Springfield will pass a mayoral recall bill. 0%.
Springfield is watching Brandon’s performance in Chicago, and is debating whether he should be given Dick Durbin’s seat. Dick Durbin is 78 FREAKING YEARS OLD and he’s in office until January 2027. He’ll be 81 years old in 2026 if he runs for re-election again (unlikely).
That seat is opening up. It will be filled by a black man or black woman. Brandon’s term also ends in 2027; and he’ll need to run for re-election, or, for higher office, in 2026.
You said the same thing about black folks voting Republican too.
There’s zero evidence black folks are voting Republican. Two weeks ago many states had elections and republicans got their butts kicked and there was zero evidence black people flipped their votes.
There’s some evidence that black men would vote for Trump. Not republicans, but Trump.
But black Republican or potential Trump voters – while completely awesome people and we love each and every one of them – are tiny voting population. The black vote’s strength comes from churches, community organizations, and facilities in the neighborhoods. How else do you think Kim Foxx gets 97% of the vote?
Zero evidence? What planet are you on? I can’t even go on social media without getting bombarded by black folks against Chicago policy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfAL_h1bCWc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKedi6Ah86w&t=83s
Help organize and help get them registered Republican and out to vote, need to take action and get more Republicans out to vote and get them voting early too. Only way to beat the corrupt democrat machine. It is possible to win Republican
Here’s more:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVZw_VWts98
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoL-Pek025s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgxC7R_oLCg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVh9wCKME5Q&t=157s
Being against Chicago policy and voting Republican are two separate things.
Of course they’re unhappy, everyone is unhappy. But they seem to be demanding accountability from their Democrat elected officials. They’re not courting Republicans.
Get involved with the Illinois GOP and help get them registered Republican and out to vote
She got 97% of the vote exactly how Fake President Brandon won, by voter fraud, pretty obvious these morons cheat because they are bottom feeders. Only way to combat it is get out and get involved, put the work in, knock doors, help Republicans get elected, only way, otherwise these marxist frauds like Kim Foxx stay in
There’s already a website? Why didn’t you say so. I mean a website. I had no idea. This changes everything. Who cares about existing laws. There’s a website everyone.
Obviously, Brandon doesn’t care about existing laws. You sound agitated. Perhaps you’re starting to realize that the people didn’t vote for this.
I’m definitely not agitated. If anything, I’m quite entertained by your ignorance. You ability to be confidently incorrect is next level. Even when people point out your ignorance, you double down with an absurd claim that it’s about to be changed and as proof you provided a cheesy website. It’s truly comical.
Last week you thought we moved past money in politics and now this week you’re claiming that recalling BJ is right around the corner.
With all this said, please don’t stop. It’s pure comedy gold.
There’s nothing funny about watching your neighborhood burn to the ground. Maybe things would make more sense if you started looking at your pension as a reverse equity mortgage.
Neighborhoods burning are obviously not funny but your ignorant comments are comedy gold pure and simple. Keep it up.
Recall is great, but also put time and effort into being involved with the Illinois GOP electing Republicans. Donate money, knock doors, help Republican candidates get on the ballot, its going to take effort and boots on the ground. Chicago democrat machine is terrified of Republicans getting elected. Everyone who is concerned needs to take action otherwise nothing will be done and results will always be the same. Get out and get involved.
Its pretty much impossible to recall politicians in Illinois, completely agree PPF. Hopefully Chicago wakes up and starts voting Republican, red states/cities are run way better. Going to have to wait to the following elections. The Chicago democrat machine is absolutely terrified of Chicago voting Republicans in because Republicans will uncover their massive fraud, theft, probably kickbacks the democrat politicians are getting from the gangs and drug dealers and now the next grift which is all the money from illegals. I would demand an audit of Brandon Johnson, he’s probably pocketing big money from this new grift. Start voting different… Read more »
In Cook/County/Chicago do you think that the loyal, never a Republican, democrat voter would oust a party favorite to vote for, GASP, a Republican? Never.
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With no education, thus no employment, crime will continue to grow in Chicago. The actions of the CTU, the Governor and apparent lack of concern by the populace things will only get worse on the education front meaning, for Chicago, it is hopeless for a very long time and possibly forever.
Lack of concern by the populace? Who are you kidding? Hopeless? Come on man. You can do better and make a difference.
Riverbender is correct. If the populace cared, they would vote differently. Yet they keep voting for Democrats, the coddlers of criminals.
This article projects 80,000 crimes in Chicago in 2023. That’s the best reason for never going to Chicago. There are better hospitals, doctors, lawyers, realtors, universities, museums, memorials, jobs, shopping, etc. elsewhere in the United States. Chicago is on life support with a self inflicted wound.
Based upon my readings it seems that there can be quite a bit of frustration when trying to get police intervention and/or reporting of crimes due to current political circumstances. I just wonder if there are a lot of unreported crimes as many victims may just give up, shrug their shoulders and chalk up their victim status as one of the pitfalls of life. Such a shame to be happening not just Chicago but Statewide as well.
Courtesy of a lack of political will, Chicago will be amending its motto from “the city that works” to the “city that works for felons”.
Yesterday was a first for me, two crimes in one day that I saw. First one relatively minor a thug threw a water bottle at the security guard at the Walgreens at State and Randolph. Security guard chased him, almost caught him, didn’t follow him into the Red Line. Second one really bad. Guy knocked out a woman in front of the Burberry store on Michigan ave. People that saw it think he was a homeless guy and they said he hit her in the head with an object. She was still out cold when the ambulance took her away.… Read more »
More midnight basketball will solve the crime problem, oops, that’s been tried multiple times and…….it didn’t work. How about midnight basketball in prison for real criminals?
Beverly is the new ‘soft’ target – like the victim said, they had no fear.
I seem to recall an era 30, 40 years back where gangs milked the city’s anti-violence funds for millions without any reduction in crime. Human nature has not changed any since then.
Good ole Woodlawn and the Blackstone Rangers! A million dollars for neighborhood improvements down the drain in the late 60`s and Rev Fry kept the Ranger’s firearms in the basement of his Presbyterian church. I remember the tanks firing machine guns in Lawndale and seeing the airborne troops lining 63rd st with their M14s as I rode the L to UICC. Glad I relocated to SC 2yrs ago after living in Chiraq 73 yr. Chitown is finished!
Heightened crime will be with Chicago for a generation or more. We are reliving the 1968-1998 time periods, with the riots, social upheaval, and flight to the ‘burbs all over again.
Looks like the $100s of millions in anti-violence funding by city & state is having a huge effect? (not!!)…Does anybody in press even ask for what or where all those $millions$ went?
These politicians and union folks are not financing anything or helping. They’re literally pocketing the money.
Don’t leave home without it!
The goal of the progressive liberal (Pritzker and the gang) is to create an environment where prevalent criminal activity is acceptable as part of every day life.
A world where everyone has the same standard of living. Unfortunately, the standard is one of that of a third world country, so as not to hurt the feelings of the uneducated non achievers in life that rely on crime and welfare for their livelihoods.
A culturally divided nation is easier to rule and destroy.