-- Connecting the dots between our economy, government and business --
Summary and audio linked here.
Chicago’s political leadership is floating a pension buyout program as evidence it is seriously addressing the city’s thirty-six-billion-dollar unfunded pension liability, but Mark Glennon, founder of the Illinois policy research organization Wirepoints, said that the proposal moves debt from one column to another rather than reducing it, and that the broader fiscal picture facing the city continues to deteriorate across every measurable dimension. Audio here.
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
The state’s existing buyout program for its own pensions is the precedent for Chicago, which should be a warning: Look out for similar exaggerated claims and shoddy analysis.
Full interview and summary linked here.
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Soon the biggest export of Illinois will be native born Illinoisians!
Article fails to mention what we export! LOL journalisming! probably ag products and equipment from the red parts of the state.
I too was disappointed the article gave no specifics and was surprised when I found out what we export. Manufactured goods make up 71% of what we export. Non-Manufactured goods, which includes agriculture, make up 9%. And Re-exports, goods we import then export without altering those goods, make up 20%. I would have thought our exporting of corn and soybeans would have been a huge part of our exports, and they make up 5% of the total (just over $4 billion) but was surprised by the amount of manufactured goods (the stuff we apparently don’t make anymore) we export was… Read more »
Thank you for this update. I know we export a lot of ag equipment.
See my comment below for an explanation. Manufactured components now go to Mexico and China, because the former U.S. production has been moved there.
I did see your comment below. To me a customer is a customer. Why should you care if China and Mexico are some of your largest customers? The corn and soybean farmers love Mexico and China. We grow way more soybeans than we can use domestically so we export about 45% of the crop and China takes about 55% of that with Mexico taking about 10%. With corn we also grow more than we need domestically but only export about 13% with Mexico being the #1 destination at about 40% and China at #3 with about 12%. Without these 2… Read more »
I agree, a customer is a customer. But it’s misleading to say that exports are increasing if the truth is that exports are only increasing because domestic shipments are decreasing. At least in our small manufacturing space, that was the case. We didn’t suddenly develop an export market. We just keep shipping the same parts, but the customers left the US to go to Mexico. So our company had an increase in “exports”. Like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. I expect that other manufacturers found the same thing: what used to be shipped within the US now goes to… Read more »
Adjusted for inflation? Nah. A pesky little detail that doesn’t quite fit the narrative.
Illinois number one export is residents.
If WP starts a comment of the year contest, I’m voting Ex Illini’s as #1 so far.
Ain’t inflation great.
How do exports contribute to inflation?
The dollar amount vs quantity. Dollar amounts / revenue/ sales are up everywhere due to inflation. Need to normalize to compare YoY actual dollars.
OK, lets do YoY. In 2022 Illinois exports were $78.2B. They grew 6/10ths of 1 percent YoY from 2022 to 2023. Inflation in 2023 was 3.4%. So from the YoY perspective Illinois under performed in export growth in relation to inflation. But lets look at export growth from 2019, the last full year before covid hit and the Trump/Biden inflationary policies took effect. Illinois exports were $59.8 billion in 2019. Inflation was about 19% from 2019 until 2023 but exports grew at 31.5%. So taking inflation into account, Illinois had real growth in their export markets in the last 4… Read more »
The CPI is up +22% since 2019, so discounting the real export level is +
$60B, or about were it was in 2019. So IL has had some meager real growth in that period. This makes sense given all the other economic data that shows no real growth or even slight declines overall – operations have downsized or moved out of IL.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation from January of 2020 to December of 2023 is 19%. Export growth in Illinois from 2019 can be attributed to 60% due to inflation and 40% due to growth in the market. To me that’s significant. And exports for the United States are up 22% since 2019. Illinois export growth is higher than the country’s export growth since 2019.
How much of the increased exports sales are due to shipments that used to go to U.S. factories, but now go to Mexican and Chinese factories?
My company makes component parts for the automotive industry. Ten years ago, our shipments were to our customers’ factories in the US. Now, the US locations have been closed down and that production moved to Mexico. Our “export sales” went from about 10% to about 70%. Same product, same customers. But the factories using the components moved from the US to Mexico. A sign of a thriving economy?
With the economic benefits of trade, why are so many democrats and republicans trying to limit trade through higher tariffs?