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Summary and audio linked here.
Chicago’s political leadership is floating a pension buyout program as evidence it is seriously addressing the city’s thirty-six-billion-dollar unfunded pension liability, but Mark Glennon, founder of the Illinois policy research organization Wirepoints, said that the proposal moves debt from one column to another rather than reducing it, and that the broader fiscal picture facing the city continues to deteriorate across every measurable dimension. Audio here.
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
The state’s existing buyout program for its own pensions is the precedent for Chicago, which should be a warning: Look out for similar exaggerated claims and shoddy analysis.
Full interview and summary linked here.
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Sending letter to Tranportation Secretary Duffy for some intervention to streamline and oversee the much needed restructuring of Chicago transit.
here’s Welch in Politico interview today stating transportation bill, TIER 2 “fix”, energy bill, etc are all going to come out in fall secession…One assumes with +$40gs SALT cap lift as cover to go for graduated tax/millionaires tax and probably a lot more taxes on services to fund. (https://www.politico.com/newsletters/illinois-playbook/2025/06/04/welch-on-transit-delays-00384589)
There is no cliff, save for the one intentionally created by the RTA’s executive directors.
Kids, this is simply the loss of the Coof money these same public servants gladly took in order to pretend that transit hadn’t lost 40% of its ridership to home working and business outmigration and just keep on spending to roll empty seats in and around Chicago.
That’s no fiscal cliff. It is intentional mismanagement of RTA/CTA/Metra/Pace. Now these political animals are demanding you pay for it.
Your terms are acceptable, executive directors. Bring on the right-sizing of your operations.
You can’t say that often enough. The service must be right-sized to fit the reduced demand in the new work-from-home era.
Unfortunately Mark, “right-sized” is a term that is used to determine the proper size and structure of an organization. That’s next to impossible when it comes to public transportation. When the CTA starts crafting their plans of cutting lines, stops or frequency, they will by law need to ensure that those changes don’t adversely impact minority or low income riders at a greater rate than the rest of the population. So if the Title VI equity analysis comes back showing disparate impact, those reductions won’t be “right-sized” but instead just cut and reduced. So instead they will cut busy or… Read more »
Mr./Mrs./Ms. state retiree, the CTA runs exactly zero profitable routes.
When the money’s gone it’s gone. The political animals can play the equity game all they want. When the payroll stops, so does the organization, unless its a volunteer organization without payroll. That is certainly not the CTA.
These reductions should have been done gradually as ridership fell off. Instead, we heard stories about ‘service enhancements’ and ‘transit equity’.
There is no fiscal cliff. This was intentional mismanagement turned extortion.
You need to chill Choo Choo man. I didn’t say they wouldn’t cut. I stated that it wouldn’t be “right-sized”. Yes reductions will have to take place but in my opinion it won’t be in the right areas because of the equity requirements. Also, I never disputed whether this was a “fiscal cliff” or mismanagement. Obviously they should have cut sooner and by not doing so they created this fiscal cliff. I agree that it was done on purpose because they figured they could get a bailout from the state. Will this strategy work? Somehow I have a feeling when… Read more »
Choo choo man? Weak, even for you, Mr. Mrs./Ms. state retiree. We still love you though and continue to fork over mightily so those checks keep coming.
Transit needs to shrink to its core users or the bottomless financial hole that was feared when the RTA was created will become a reality. The political animals infesting the GA bailing the RTA out from the mess the executive directors intentionally created through their mismanagement would be a new low for a GA that has excelled at racking them up.
So in plain English, they will take and hold hostages until they get what they want. It’s the public sector way of conducting business.
Extortion by any other name.
It’s not the public sector but rather federal law based on the civil rights act. I made no statement as to it being right only that before any cuts take place an equity analysis regarding Title VI is required. Some of you really lose your mind when I present basic facts. In plain English, the CTA will need to start doing their analysis soon even if the state bails them out later. They will then present their findings as to where and how cuts will be done along with who is impacted. Will could mean even areas with fewer riders… Read more »
>>>they will cut busy or profitable routes in the name of equity.<<<
Good! Cut them as well.
Absolutely comical – ever hear of ‘Transportation Engineering’? You’re way out of your depth.
You’re correct that I’m not a transportation expert. I’m basing my statements from what other experts are saying. “It’s going to be chaotic,” said P.S. Sriraj, the director of the Urban Transportation Center at the University of Illinois Chicago.As the agencies evaluate where to cut service, Sriraj said, they’ll be weighing Title VI responsibilities along with ridership metrics on various routes and lines and the availability of alternative modes of transit near routes slated for cuts. I’m sure when you factor in Chicago politics, equity will be a big part of this process. Then again, maybe Jack from Peoria knows… Read more »
PPF – I don’t understand your overall point. Will politics and equity concerns impact the cuts that must be made? Yes. Will it be chaotic? Yes. The system is a huge minority employer and yes one can expect a firestorm with cuts. However it appears the system as is common with many patronage systems has been poorly managed and the looming cliff is really material. Can’t run away from Railroader’s view that not meeting payroll matters. Also can’t ignore that even in Illinois the populace won’t pay for running empty buses and trains. The question that nags at me is… Read more »
My point is that this is more than just an operational problem that the train enthusiast believe it to be. Since equity will be heavily factored into any decisions, the right choices will not be made. Title VI will prevent making the right choices. I didn’t even think that would be a controversial point of view but once again people are upset when you point out bumps in the road ahead. On top of this is the political side to these type of cuts. The proposed cuts will be outlined in the fall to be implemented January 1. That means… Read more »
I would think that my criticism borne of direct experience might indicate my not being a terribly loyal enthusiast, making me persona non grata in the train enthusiast community. Actual train enthusiasts are in a full panic over these long overdue service reductions, but the travelling public is not. These service reductions might have caused chaos in 2015, but not when total ridership has declined so much since. Ultimately, this is a ridership issue, Mr./Mrs./Ms. state retiree, not an operational issue. The RTA it simply drags too many empty seats all around Chicagoland. How can the continued imprudent waste of… Read more »
Managed transportation has been around for a very long time for rail and buses etc – If UIC academics wish to make things political, they need to be removed from the restructuring / right-sizing process.
He wasn’t making it political. It’s a legal issue that goes beyond mere transportation questions. Also, in what world are you living where Illinois or Chicago removes politics from any process?
Actually, the current sorry situation has developed due to obscene mismanagement because of Democrat politics. The ‘solutions’ being floated so far, i.e. how to cover the mess made, are just more of the same and not any kind of meaningful fix.
Hmm.. a director of a state funded entity coming up with the worst possible scenario to gin up the game in another state funded entity’s favor. Yep, better believe what he says! To do differently would be, er, “ chaotic “.
I AI-ed, and big picture:
The entire system, for 2024, has budget of $3.924 bil (+ pensions & benefits?) with 361 mil rides. Or $3.924 bil / 361 mil rides =$10.87 per ride (+ pensions & benefits?). With cost to ride on CTA currently at $2.50.Even if ridership went way up, which it’s not, the entire system is MASSIVELY subsidized on a per ride bases.
I think the PBO (Pension Benefit Obligation) is included in that budgetary figure. Yes, the CTA/Metra/Pace have been hovering around 25% of operating expenses covered by farebox revenue since 2021. The minimum requirement by the RTA enabling law is 50%. All transit is subsidized worldwide. Some places more than others. The RTA had to run a tighter ship when half its operating money came from customers. Take that constraint away and the executive directors, train enthusiasts, and political animals will be right back here demanding more confiscated taxpayer money in short order. The transit money pit is exactly what detractors… Read more »
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Fixed now. Thanks for the heads up. https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FINewsArticle?id=202506031331SM______BNDBUYER_00000197-325c-d29c-abdf-3a5f80c90001_110.1
Maybe they should be trying harder to survive sans taxpayer handouts.