We are now getting reasonably good data on how Illinois revenue is trending. That information has been obscured because the income tax rate increases in July 2017 made year-over-year comparisons difficult. (Month-over-month comparisons don’t mean much because seasonality distorts them.) Now, however, the rate changes don’t heavily distort the monthly year-over-year comparisons.
Comparing October tax revenue to October 2017 shows increases of 9.9%, 5% and 10.7% for the “big three,” respectively, the personal income tax, corporate income tax and sales tax. That increase totaled $120 million for the month.
Total fiscal year-to-date (July through October) for those taxes increased by 16.1%, 22.4% and 5.5%, respectively. That totaled an additional $1.2 billion, though that does reflect the increased rates.
It’s all in the monthly report from Illinois’ Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability.
The long term effects of the tax increase are a much different story. Illinoisans were already fleeing to escape high taxes, and the full effect of increased flight resulting from the rate increases will take years to show up.
-Mark Glennon is founder of Wirepoints.
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
The state’s existing buyout program for its own pensions is the precedent for Chicago, which should be a warning: Look out for similar exaggerated claims and shoddy analysis.