By: Mark Glennon*
Each month, the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability issues an update on how much revenue the State of Illinois is taking in. The August report, including fiscal year-to-date numbers, came out last week. (The state’s 2015 fiscal year started July 1).
Unfortunately, year-to-date total revenue numbers are actually down by 6% compared to the same period last year. (See page 7 of the full report, linked here.) Much of the decline is attributable to a decline in certain refunds to the state, according to the report, but it still remains troubling. Personal income tax receipts, by far the state’s largest source of revenue, were basically flat. Sales tax receipts, the next largest source of revenue, improved by 1.5%, but corporate income tax receipts declined by 20%.
*Mark Glennon is founder of WirePoints
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
The state’s existing buyout program for its own pensions is the precedent for Chicago, which should be a warning: Look out for similar exaggerated claims and shoddy analysis.
Remember that early 2013 income tax receipts were higher than expected because individuals accelerated capital gains to avoid the federal rate hike on 1/1/2013. That said, the Quinn campaign was quick to boast of the August employment gains; it will be interesting to see if these higher employment levels has any impact on state finances.
Jim- You’re right about the “April suprise” that temporarily jacked up 2013 numbers. But still, even beyond income tax receipts, there’s been no meaningful improvement.
On employment, remember that it’s only the unemployment rate that has dropped. Actual increase in the number of people employed has been pretty flat — that’s what Quinn is hiding.