-- Connecting the dots between our economy, government and business --
Summary and audio linked here.
Chicago’s political leadership is floating a pension buyout program as evidence it is seriously addressing the city’s thirty-six-billion-dollar unfunded pension liability, but Mark Glennon, founder of the Illinois policy research organization Wirepoints, said that the proposal moves debt from one column to another rather than reducing it, and that the broader fiscal picture facing the city continues to deteriorate across every measurable dimension. Audio here.
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
The state’s existing buyout program for its own pensions is the precedent for Chicago, which should be a warning: Look out for similar exaggerated claims and shoddy analysis.
Full interview and summary linked here.
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The issue on migration is the scale of the losses. Saying “this has happened for a long time” or “this happens to states around us” ignores that Illinois’ out-migration is accelerating and magnitudes higher than surrounding states.
Indiana often has net out-migration too, but their run-rate is less than 10,000 per year. Illinois is at 105,000/year.
Michigan used to lose 100k+ plus per year in their worst years 2007, 2008, 2009. Now with economic growth they’re losing about 40,000 per year on net.
He is probably confused on the difference between net out-migration and absolute population loss. Illinois has always for a long-time had net out-migration, but only recently was the net out-migration substantial enough to cause absolute population loss. Illinois has experienced net out-migration for decades, losing more people to other states than it has gained from other states. However, population always grew because the combination of more births than deaths and net gains on international immigration (like every other state) out-weighed the losses to other states. It’s only in the last two years that losses to other states out-weighed gains on… Read more »