-- Connecting the dots between our economy, government and business --
Summary and audio linked here.
Chicago’s political leadership is floating a pension buyout program as evidence it is seriously addressing the city’s thirty-six-billion-dollar unfunded pension liability, but Mark Glennon, founder of the Illinois policy research organization Wirepoints, said that the proposal moves debt from one column to another rather than reducing it, and that the broader fiscal picture facing the city continues to deteriorate across every measurable dimension. Audio here.
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
The state’s existing buyout program for its own pensions is the precedent for Chicago, which should be a warning: Look out for similar exaggerated claims and shoddy analysis.
Full interview and summary linked here.
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Hmmmm……..building where no one wants to live and can’t afford. Chicago can’t build on the fine reputation schools.
Query what the Chicago numbers will reflect by the fall. In Northern Virginia, there is worry about a repeat of 2007/2008. I think that worry is overblown. There is simply a very limited inventory here. Definitely there will be a slow down – the rise in interest rates, coupled with a likely decline in employment as we head into a recession – will cause a slow down. Apparently there is around one-tenth the amount of adjustable rate mortgages that there were in 2007, and those adjustable rate mortgages don’t have the same unrealistic pay as you want features that threw… Read more »
* 90%+ of mortgage defaults during the GFR were prime mortgages.
* Inventory increases as sales fall. Sellers are running for the exits
* Cash out refis last year was $1.2T, the same as in 2005, with 60% of all refi borrowers taking cash out
* Earlier this year new housing under construction was the highest its been in decades
There’s a massive bubble right now and it’s imploding
Spot on. The Case Schiller housing price index is the highest it’s ever been, and home affordability (home price vs. worker income) is the worst it’s ever been. This doesn’t end well.
Remember that the inflation rate doesn’t go down until the Fed rate is higher than the inflation rate. Yikes!
The best real estate data driven information I have seen is on the Reventure Consulting YouTube channel. All data sources on this channel are from well known public sources, and all data used is linked in every video.
Interesting, you’re the second person (or maybe the same person!) to recommend Reventure in the past 48 hours on forums I visit. I’ll definitely check it out…
Looks like a skinhead goofy looking guy peddling gloom and doom, hardly not biased, though I agree there is a downturn coming, but this guy is in 2008 mode, not the mode of a slow correction(not mass foreclosures like last time) What will happen this time, at a time when so little has been for sale the last few years as it is, is that first there will be a lot more listings, panic sellers, and then a slowdown of sellers AND buyers Just a cold market, not a falling apart market This skinhead dude is marketing and bannering his… Read more »
A bald guy interpreting publicly available real estate data is not a “skinhead”.
Housing boom ? In Chicago ? Building new apartments and condos to empty old apartments and condos is not a “housing boom”. Mathematically impossible to have a housing boom with a shrinking population base.
Not if some neighborhoods are tanking, and some are solid
The marginal areas have been losing pop for decades, Lincoln Park not so much, same as downtown and such, the housing boom as it was, the last 20-30 years, was all lakefront to begin with, whilst at the same time the struggling west and south sides were bailing to thr suburbs and out of the Chicago region entirely
See how much development occurred within TIF districts vs. non-TIF.
I doubt taxpayers understand that they end up subsidizing the profits of TIF developments for 35-23 years, because almost 100% TIF incremental property tax payments are forbidden to be paid to cover the costs engendered by new development (employment costs of schools, police, fire&rescue, etc.). Inflation burden over ensuing 35 TIF years is borne by existing non-TIF taxpayers.
Test for a failed city — when you can’t park your car on your own street without being robbed/carjacked, your city has failed.
How about when you can’t afford to pay to park anywhere, which has been the case
on the north side and downtown for years, which amounts close to the same thing?
If you remember the last boom/bust, there is a pattern. First:
prices increase
inventory decreases
prices plateau
sales fall
inventory jumps <——– YOU ARE HERE
prices fall
bubble bursts
look out below!
You forgot to mention what happens when the Fed doesn’t raise rates soon enough because they think inflation is transitory.
prices increase
inventory decreases
prices plateau
sales fall
inventory jumps <——– YOU ARE HERE
prices fall
interest rates increase
inventory jumps more
prices fall further
bubble bursts
look out below!
Very true LOL!
Platinum, thats just text book business cycle
You would see the same thing if you went back in time 100 years
Capitalism is a bitch, isn’t it?