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Summary and audio linked here.
Chicago’s political leadership is floating a pension buyout program as evidence it is seriously addressing the city’s thirty-six-billion-dollar unfunded pension liability, but Mark Glennon, founder of the Illinois policy research organization Wirepoints, said that the proposal moves debt from one column to another rather than reducing it, and that the broader fiscal picture facing the city continues to deteriorate across every measurable dimension. Audio here.
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
The state’s existing buyout program for its own pensions is the precedent for Chicago, which should be a warning: Look out for similar exaggerated claims and shoddy analysis.
Full interview and summary linked here.
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It looks like JB will win big. Now the next big question is amendment 1. Early cook county reporting shows 82% voted yes. It’s only 3% reporting but if that continues it won’t really matter much what the rest of the state does.
With 14% reporting in cook the yes is down to 68%. Should be tighter at this pace.
60.3% now with 65% reporting.
Also, some of these suburban congressional districts were much tighter than they were drawn. Underwood has a .2% lead now, Lauf within 5%, Budzinski within 3%, and Sorenson is beating King by 1%. These were drawn, and last time around, were D+8 to D+14 districts. So there’s some silver lining to look forward to in 2024 as things in IL get even worse, and the right shift in these districts will continue.
Pritzger wins 5 counties statewide out of 102. Wins by 50K+.
Carries Cook/County/Chicago by a huge margin saving him from losing.
Reports, just from what I’ve gathered online, are of slow turnout in Chicago but higher turnout the farther you get out of the city with high turnout downstate. I’m cautiously optimistic this is really happening for once. They’ve been saying for a while this would be a historic election. It might be.
Keep in mind that 716k Illinois democrats voted early compared to 302k Illinois republicans. Now the good news is that number for early democrats is down 13% from 2018. If that holds through the night, Pritzker would only receive 2,157,000 votes. Now Trump got 2,446,000 votes in 2020. Can the ILGOP turnout for Bailey and the rest of the party the way they did in 2020? Democrats had 1.5 million voters show up on Election Day in 2020 and 1.65 million in 2018. So if those number hold out and you account for the unaffiliated voters (those not voting in… Read more »
When Cap Fax’s Kendall County Bill thinks things are bad for Dems today, then you know things are gonna be bad. He/she/them/zir is predicting that Amendment 1 is DOA and there’s a couple of flipped congressional seats too…
I also believe Amendment 1 is DOA and a couple of congressional seats will flip. I just don’t think Bailey is going to win. I think it’s going to be a good night nationally for the GOP and a horrible night for progressives. Good riddance.
Where is your source that 716k Illinois democrats did E.V.?
I get your logic but I think you’re underestimating the independents’ hard right turn. Bailey doesn’t need Trump vote totals to win. He needs the independents and hispanics to break hard for the R’s like they are every where else in the country from the LA’s mayor’s race to the NY Gov’s races. In this case, JB’s loss is truly Bailey’s gain.
Agree that if Independents break hard for R’s that relieves pressure but I still believe that Dems get 2.5 to 2.6 million votes for JB. That would still be about 900k fewer democrats voting than in 2020. Even after you factor in Dem apathy, the path for Bailey is still almost non-existent.
My source is targetearly dot targetsmart dot com. If I post the actual link then it gets kicked to moderation. Keep in mind that unaffiliated doesn’t just mean independent. It’s also people that don’t pull a ballot in the primary.
Agree that if Independents break hard for R’s that relieves pressure but I still believe that Dems get 2.5 to 2.6 million votes for JB. That would still be about 900k fewer democrats voting than in 2020. Even after you factor in Dem apathy, the path for Bailey is still almost non-existent.
Targetearly targetsmart is the source. If I post the actual link then it gets kicked to moderation. Keep in mind that unaffiliated doesn’t just mean independent. It’s also people that don’t pull a ballot in the primary.
I don’t see JB getting anywhere near the 2.5 to 2.6 million votes he did last time. Most incumbent govenors lose votes. Rauner lost over 100,000, Quinn lost slightly more, Blago lost 200,000. Keep in mind that JB had 700,000 NEW voters who hadn’t voted in any IL midterm election in 40 years show up to vote for him. That’s how he got 2.5 million votes in his first election. Will these low information, literally once in two-generation voters, show up again to keep JB in office? Because without the 700,000 new voters, he’s back to 1.8 million and he’s… Read more »
NY times has already called the race for for JB and Duckworth. 2 minutes after 7 PM. Who would have thought?
And the AP called JB too. Before any results are in. LOL
NY Times literally says 0% reported and called it for her. LOL. Not saying she’s gonna lose but come ‘on, man, that’s malarky.
It’s called exit polling and it has been used for years.
Let’s just say this: AP/ NYT are not credible sources. I’m not saying Bailey/Salvi won, but, no serious person relies on the AP/NYT for these decisions. I’ll wait for other sources to make the call. Thanks
Lake county with 52% in, JB is up 19 points on Bailey. Kane with 37% in and JB is up 25. Will county with 29% in and JB up 28. Doesn’t look good.
Fox just called it. at least they waited 36 minutes…instead of 3.
Fox News called it for JB and Duckworth. Does that work for you? Less than 36 minutes.
Disappointing, but not unexpected. Hoping for the best but IL really is f****d if the rest of the country has gone red, but IL doubles down on this.
Tonight I made my decision to leave IL.
I hope everyone joins me.
Good luck to you and I don’t blame you.
http://electionresults.countyofkane.org/Contests.aspx?Id=27
Kane County only has a 24% turnout? That’s 1/3rd of the 2020 election and only half the 2018 election.
WTF, this isn’t much higher than a municipal election.
Well he’s been winning big at the dinner table!
If forced to choose I’ll take the toenail.
Pritzker, Rose said, has “the charisma of a toenail. ”
What an insult to toenails.
The view of Pritzker from outside IL is more realistic. How many IL governors convicted? Why is everyone leaving IL? How does IL rate in taxes? Pension debt? Corruption? Crime? Voters outside of IL do pay attention to IL problems and don’t have any enthusiasm for an IL politician, let alone Pritzker. His size, his wealth, lack of charisma, all work against him.
that this morbidly obese, toilet-removing whiny loser is even in the top 50,000 Democrats being remotely considered for their presidential nominee proves how bankrupt and devoid of human candidates the Democrats are
“Pritzker can handle it. His voice in 2024 would bring a breath of fresh air.” What an absolutely absurd and silly puff piece. Clearly the author is a paid Pravda mecia Pritker PR shill. What a disgusting waste of electrons.
Pritzker supports high taxes (except for himself), unlimited union power, a permanent state of emergency, free criminals, big government- this is an unheard of breath of fresh air for a Democrat
I know, right? 25% of the state looks at this and says “amazing, please give me some more!! and another 25% looks and says, yeah, things suck, but muh pension!! But muh pension!”