-- Connecting the dots between our economy, government and business --
Summary and audio linked here.
Chicago’s political leadership is floating a pension buyout program as evidence it is seriously addressing the city’s thirty-six-billion-dollar unfunded pension liability, but Mark Glennon, founder of the Illinois policy research organization Wirepoints, said that the proposal moves debt from one column to another rather than reducing it, and that the broader fiscal picture facing the city continues to deteriorate across every measurable dimension. Audio here.
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
The state’s existing buyout program for its own pensions is the precedent for Chicago, which should be a warning: Look out for similar exaggerated claims and shoddy analysis.
Full interview and summary linked here.
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The key phrase is “over the last 10 years.” When you look at that period, the population loss wasn’t that bad. But look at the last seven years. Yikes! So, I guess the carnival barkers were right after all.
“But look at the last seven years.”
In order to do that you need to look at “estimated” census from 2013. However, those numbers have been shown to be inaccurate. If 2014-2020 estimates were undercounted then it’s also possible that 2011-2013 were over counted. The only thing we know for sure is a few thousand less people live in Illinois than they did in 2010. While not ideal it’s far from the doom and gloom that’s been sold.
myql, that’s possible. The ten year’s of estimated changes for each since 2010 if you total them up are off by about 230,000. So, it’s possible the errors were in the earlier years and the losses estimated in more recent years were accurate. There are lots of questions like that which are now being looked at. It really doesn’t matter much, though, since even a small net loss is a killer, which puts us in the backwater with only Mississippi and West Virginia. There is no fixing IL without growth. No growth means our problems continue.
Mark, I think you meant to reply to PPF. Anyway, points well taken.
PPF, I’ve read several studies showing marked population loss in IL over the past several years. Are they all wrong?
mqyl, You read several studies showing population loss in IL based on census estimates. Now that we have the actual 2020 census data it calls into question the accuracy of those estimates and more importantly the studies you have read. Are they all wrong? If they all used data from the same estimates then does it matter how many studies are done? You really only have few choices here. The estimates were wrong. or The estimates were right but somehow Illinois gained 140k residents in 2020. Illinois gained residents from 2010-2013 and then Illinois lost population but just not as… Read more »
mql and PPF, you may want to wait before debating this to get more of the facts and issues on the table, which will be coming. Ted will have an article up on some of it tomorrow and the Census Bureau puts up more detail in the first week of May when we will write on it again. A couple things in the meantime: That bottom-line number from the new census, showing the small loss, really doesn’t say much about people moving in and out. For that, you could look at the IRS migration numbers to see 640k net loss… Read more »
In my heart, I truly believe Occam’s Razor that the simplest explanation is the most likely. I honestly believe that in our state, fraud and purposeful miscounting in the census figures is why our population figures are reported as stagnant. The state spent millions of dollars to count every resident (*wink, *wink) and we are not told to believe our lying eyes, and dozens of scientific estimates, evidencing the state’s rapidly shrinking population. Our representatives aren’t honest, and they purposely set up systemically dishonest systems (like absentee balloting, etc). Why would the census count be any different? It wouldn’t surprise… Read more »
“It really doesn’t matter much, though, since even a small net loss is a killer, which puts us in the backwater with only Mississippi and West Virginia.” That’s not the spin our one-party state presents to its subjects. They blame it on college students leaving the state because of the cost of college; and oh look, we have a solution to reverse our population loss, we’ll just tax everyone to make college free!!! Yet, we all know people are fleeing the state. Each and everyone of us knows people who continue to leave. But the census numbers, if true (and… Read more »
debstor, yes, all valid questions, and see my comment above. More will be coming. Some other states had much larger deviations from their annual estimates, so we may learn something from that, too.
My theory might be correct. This ABC article you linked to today says: “Cordova said while whites and Blacks are leaving Chicago, the same number of Asians and Latinos are moving in. She said Illinois’ population loss is being driven by downstate declines.” So basically everyone we mostly natives know are leaving and being replaced by foreign born and immigrants. That’s why when all our friends leave Illinois we feel like foreigners in our own land. Even my suburban area is a diverse suburban with so many communities that it feels like a foreign land. Korean signs everywhere, next to… Read more »
Mark, all. “No growth means our problems continue”. Nail. Hit. On. Head. At no time during my tenure in Illinois have I heard a single Governor or local Politician spout that growing the private sector in Illinois is the way forward. More businesses, equals more tax revenues, and with fiscal prudence on spending a win win for all. That is what Margaret Thatcher did in the UK in the late 70’s / early 80’s, when the UK, like Illinois now, had a bloated (albeit less corrupt) Government, over staffed public sector, taxes through the roof and high inflation (which is… Read more »
We are 48 out of 50 in population growth, in league with West Virginia and Mississippi, and he’s dancing around like that Bears defensive player, a few years back, who injured himself celebrating a lucky tackle in a game the Bears were losing by 20 or 30 points.
They are lying to us, we know they are lying to us, they know we know they are lying to us, yet they continue to lie to us anyways.
This is the awful state of IL.
Is Pritzker now denying that IL is losing a House seat and electoral college votes?
Biden issued an EO to embargo the data on illegals counted. Blue State Blues.
As usual Pritzker is delusional 7,500 we’re does he gets these numbers from who is providing him with false numbers, remember 2022 vote this man out of office or live in a lockdown state forever.
The governor showed complete contempt to Republicans
He has no idea what he is talking about. Only 7,500 over ten years?
The last census showed loss greater than this. He’s trying to make his tenure look good.
Vote in a good leader for Illinois and remove the bullies.
A good leader is irrelevant when the IL legislature is gerrymandered to have supermajorities.