Even as the state is set to pay $8.5 billion to the five retirement systems in 2019, it’s still not enough. Unfunded liabilities keep growing. And the 2019 contribution is more than three times the state’s payment a decade earlier: Illinois paid $2.8 billion to pensions in 2009. By 2045, the projected contribution will be $19.6 billion, according to a March report, based on actuarial valuations.
If the state’s required contribution increases from $8.5 billion in 2019 to $19.6 billion in 2045 (26 years later), that implies a compound annual growth rate of 3.27%. How bad is this? Here are two reference points. Most economists project that nominal gdp in the U.S., in the long run, will grow about 4% per year – 2% growth in real gdp on top of 2% inflation. The CBO, in its latest April 2018 forecast, projects that federal debt held by the public will increase from $16 trillion to $29 trillion over the next ten years, which represents a compound… Read more »
A largely unasked question is becoming glaring: Is Illinois doing all it should to use artificial intelligence to make government cost less and work better? So far, the evidence says no.
If the state’s required contribution increases from $8.5 billion in 2019 to $19.6 billion in 2045 (26 years later), that implies a compound annual growth rate of 3.27%. How bad is this? Here are two reference points. Most economists project that nominal gdp in the U.S., in the long run, will grow about 4% per year – 2% growth in real gdp on top of 2% inflation. The CBO, in its latest April 2018 forecast, projects that federal debt held by the public will increase from $16 trillion to $29 trillion over the next ten years, which represents a compound… Read more »
If the ramp up of pension payments is no biggie, then why is Ralph Martire obsessed with re-amortizing the debt? He certainly seems alarmed.