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Summary and audio linked here.
Chicago’s political leadership is floating a pension buyout program as evidence it is seriously addressing the city’s thirty-six-billion-dollar unfunded pension liability, but Mark Glennon, founder of the Illinois policy research organization Wirepoints, said that the proposal moves debt from one column to another rather than reducing it, and that the broader fiscal picture facing the city continues to deteriorate across every measurable dimension. Audio here.
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
The state’s existing buyout program for its own pensions is the precedent for Chicago, which should be a warning: Look out for similar exaggerated claims and shoddy analysis.
Full interview and summary linked here.
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But the amendment doesn’t necessarily need 60% yes votes to pass. Depending on how many people leave it blank, it could need anywhere between 50-60%. Drop off rates have lower in recent years, so expect a 55% cutoff to pass.
Latest polls show 54% support while 30% oppose. This amendment will come down to the 16% of the undecideds. If most of those 16% skip it then it will pass. Based on these numbers, for this to fail, you would need about 40% of the undecideds to break 100% for the “No” to make this close. I think most of the undecideds are that way because they don’t know much about the amendment and not sure that will really change over the next 10 days.