"Given that sooner or later, once Tier 2 teachers have greater levels of seniority (and, let’s face it, more union power), the state will have to face up to their poorly managed benefit cuts running afoul of Social Security safe harbor laws, and it’s highly likely that the state will just boost those benefits and worsen the funded status."
Tier 2 assumptions should scare all these ratings agencies. I guarantee you Tier 2 will be enhanced multiple times in the upcoming decades, yet every assumption made today regarding pension funding assumes nothing will change.
My guess is that the state will re-amortize pension debt, then will greatly enhance Tier 2 benefits to a point where they almost equal Tier 1, then the pension obligations will look just like they were before the re-amortization. Same as it ever was.
My money is on the following Tier 2 pension enhancements: Retirement Eligibility: Reduce the minimum age to receive full pension benefits w/ no penalty from 67 to 62 (probably 60). This is going to be the biggest stickler for teachers who already reached full pension vesting of 75% and can no longer accumulate service years. Probably helps the most w/ the Safe Harbor rule too. Change the benefit formula: Decrease the highest average salary calculation from the 8 consecutive years’ salaries to 4 (like today). They already did this for safety personnel. Annual Cost-of-living Adjustments: Raise COLA from 1/2 CPI… Read more »
A largely unasked question is becoming glaring: Is Illinois doing all it should to use artificial intelligence to make government cost less and work better? So far, the evidence says no.
Tier 2 assumptions should scare all these ratings agencies. I guarantee you Tier 2 will be enhanced multiple times in the upcoming decades, yet every assumption made today regarding pension funding assumes nothing will change.
My guess is that the state will re-amortize pension debt, then will greatly enhance Tier 2 benefits to a point where they almost equal Tier 1, then the pension obligations will look just like they were before the re-amortization. Same as it ever was.
My money is on the following Tier 2 pension enhancements: Retirement Eligibility: Reduce the minimum age to receive full pension benefits w/ no penalty from 67 to 62 (probably 60). This is going to be the biggest stickler for teachers who already reached full pension vesting of 75% and can no longer accumulate service years. Probably helps the most w/ the Safe Harbor rule too. Change the benefit formula: Decrease the highest average salary calculation from the 8 consecutive years’ salaries to 4 (like today). They already did this for safety personnel. Annual Cost-of-living Adjustments: Raise COLA from 1/2 CPI… Read more »