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Chicago set almost a 34 year record with a 13.1% gain, which put us near the bottom of the list of 20 metro areas. But the good news is that at least another metro area fell behind us. We are now 4th from the bottom, ahead of Minneapolis, New York, and DC.
Summary and audio linked here.
Chicago’s political leadership is floating a pension buyout program as evidence it is seriously addressing the city’s thirty-six-billion-dollar unfunded pension liability, but Mark Glennon, founder of the Illinois policy research organization Wirepoints, said that the proposal moves debt from one column to another rather than reducing it, and that the broader fiscal picture facing the city continues to deteriorate across every measurable dimension. Audio here.
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
The state’s existing buyout program for its own pensions is the precedent for Chicago, which should be a warning: Look out for similar exaggerated claims and shoddy analysis.
Full interview and summary linked here.
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Hmmm… has there been a corresponding increase in buyers? Values increasing but nobody is buying. How is that a win except for the tax collector?
It’s so surprising that home prices in Chicago are rising. One would think that with so many people leaving the state and city, that homes would be vacant and prices would be dropping. Very confusing. Who’s buying all this property if everyone is leaving?
When $14 Trillion in federal money is sloshing around from the federal government from over the past couple. years, lots of prices get inflated.
Where are all the vacant homes Mark? If people are leaving in droves then who is moving into these homes? Were they homeless before?
You’re the king of the strawman argument. People are leaving in droves. Some of them are replaced by non-natives and foreign born immigrants. The rest who’ve left were likely renters.
Are “non-natives” and “foreign born” not people? Do they not count? Are they less than you or Mark? Don’t understand your point. The argument by you and others is that people are leaving the state even though the census data shows Chicago has been flat or slightly grown. If your numbers are correct, one would expect real estate to plummet but it’s not. Rockford home prices are declining with the same money pumped into the economy. Chicago crime is high. Yet people still want to live there. Also, rents are way up as well. Clearly the demand is there despite… Read more »
Your argument PFF is basically: “IF IL IS SO BAD, WHY DOESN’T IT LOOK LIKE UKRAINE OR SYRIA, HUH,HUH??”
You still didn’t answer my question. What’s your point around “non-natives” and “foreign born”? Why don’t they count as people in your mind?
Yes, I’d like to see the native Illinoisans stay rather than be replaced by sanctuary immigrants no income. Sorry if that’s a controversial position.
You ask where is the vacant housing…have you looked at the south and west sides, and south suburbs?
The vacancy rate for rentals statewide is 8.0%.
https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/rental-vacancy-rate
No, my argument is if we are losing the population that you and others say we are then one would expect their to be vacant homes and rentals. We are not seeing that so I’m asking you why?
PPF, if you want to argue that home price increases in Chicago area are just a function of population driven demand in Illinois, have at it.
Of course home prices aren’t just a function of population. Just as they are not purely the function of monetary supply. You have made the argument that the census numbers are wrong and we are seeing mass migration out of the city and state. I’m merely asking why we aren’t seeing more vacant homes if your theory is correct.
It’s ok to say you don’t know. Nobody does.
How do you know we aren’t seeing vacant homes?
https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/rental-vacancy-rate
Statewide rental vacancy at 8%; FL is 5.4% and even CA is only 3.5%.
Indiana is 9.7% which seems surprising, but that might be Gary and North Indy.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/gary-indiana-housing-vacancy-demolition_n_5bce2346e4b0d38b587b231f
Vacancy rate in the city? I have no doubt statewide we are seeing higher vacancy rates. Look at Rockford. Their home prices continue to decline because people don’t want to live there. If people didn’t want to live in Chicago then vacancy rates would rise and the price of homes would soften. We are not seeing that.
PPF – 13.1% is what inflation rate really is not 8.5% CPI government says . So in essence IL is flat no growth at all ….what a success story
Try venturing out to any mountain state or sunbelt south mostly low tax red states . The appreciation rate since Covid began… is close to 100% growth —yes that is partly government and fed money pumping it is also be driven by high tax state money coming in buying in cash . IL is languishing but you go with your narrative that IL is thriving ….. typical
I never said Illinois was a success story. The point I was making was around population decline. This site and many of its commenters have claimed that the 10 year census data is wrong (because it showed population was flat for the last 10 years) and they love to talk about data showing a mass exodus of the population. They seek out data that aligns to their beliefs. If the population was declining and the city was dying then we would expect prices to soften. I’ve merely asked a simple question as to why that is. The only response has… Read more »
You will see it in full display when the R/E bubble pops which is coming I see the cracks starting to form. The downside in IL will accelerate much faster and without experiencing the huge gains many parts of US has ….it will be way more painful. Also I Know people where I live in Colorado mountain resort town…some have moved here full time and kept their Chicago and North Shore homes vacant in past for years since they could not sell at even reasonable prices with a loss…….some were just able to sell this year due to inflation boom… Read more »
“This site and many of its commenters have claimed that the 10 year census data is wrong (because it showed population was flat for the last 10 years) and they love to talk about data showing a mass exodus of the population.” Now you’re willfully being obtuse. The evidence is everywhere of the mass outbound migration – from JB’s college students, to moving van line out-migration data, USPS change of address, declining college and school enrollments, high rental vacancy rates, and most importantly, Census data showing a decline in population in 87 out of 102 counties in Illinois. The there’s… Read more »
So yes, people are fleeing the state as it turns into a third world sheethole, with rich people living along the lake and in the west and north suburbs, but overall, the average household income (adjusted for inflation) is declining fast everywhere.
https://patch.com/illinois/tinleypark/top-30-illinois-counties-largest-decline-median-household-income
Top 30 Illinois Counties With the Largest Decline in Median Household IncomeThese 30 counties saw the biggest drops in median household income between 2000 and 2014. Did your home county make the list?
https://247wallst.com/state/how-income-inequality-in-illinois-compares-to-other-states/ How Income Inequality in Illinois Compares to Other States The United States has some of the highest levels of income and wealth inequality in the world. * * * * * * The Gini coefficient in Illinois is 0.480 — in line with the national average but eighth highest among all 50 states. Across the state, the average income among the top 20% of households by earnings stands at $245,173. The cohort accounts for 51.2% of all income earned in Illinois. Meanwhile, the average income among the bottom 20% of households by earnings is just $14,667, accounting for 3.1%… Read more »
Debtor, kudos for bringing up the Gini Coefficient, which measures inequality. The higher the more unequal. Despite all the talk about equality in Illinois and despite our high taxes, we are, as you point out, quite unequal in results. Of course, actual results don’t matter to progressives.
Where are all the vacant schools? If teachers are leaving in droves then who is teaching in these schools? Were they teacher-less before?
The teacher to student ratio has been adjusted downward in many school districts. Instead of 32 to 1 many districts have negotiated for 28 to 1 or lower. This increased the demand for teachers while the supply has not increased. Hence the shortage. You continue to act as if teachers don’t leave the profession. Why then, do only about 12% of all teachers in the state make it the full 35 years. If they are not leaving then I would expect higher full retirement. Why is that nixit? Also, schools become vacant when students are not attending not when teachers… Read more »
and artificially low interest rates…The primary buyer of mortgage backed securities for two years has been…..The Fed
Spot on, Debtsor. Fed was buying an astonishing $40 billion of mortgage securities a month until just recently. Dumbest Fed since the Great Depression. All they accomplished was pricing people out of the market.
When student debt is cancelled, it will inflate the housing market even more.
State retirees