No, the downturn in Illinois COVID does not mean Pritzker’s mandates are working – Wirepoints Quickpoint

By: Mark Glennon*

I had set aside yesterday evening for some administrative work, but as happens so often, Gov. JB Pritzker’s office as well as the press made a ridiculous claim that we cannot let pass.

Pritzker’s press secretary tweeted, “Pritzker’s mandates appear to reduce COVID-19 cases in Illinois.” 

And she added, “Shorter headline: following science works.” She cited a recent report by ABC Springfield making the same claim.

Both Pritzker’s office and ABC Springfield have no basis for their claim.

The claim is based on the drop in the daily number of reported COVID cases in Illinois after August 26. That’s when Pritzker announced the statewide indoor mask mandate and the vaccination mandate for certain government workers.

Pritzker’s triumph might at first seem true. The number of daily cases indeed dropped from about 3,700 on the date of the mandates to 2,900 today (using seven-day moving averages).

In fact, however, most of the nation is seeing a similar drop, including states with no mandates.

The chart below is from the Center for Disease Control itself. It shows the trends in daily new reported cases per capita. The relevant part is the drop-off at the end.

You can see for yourself at the tail end of the chart that Illinois is merely experiencing the same drop seen across the nation. Florida and Texas, widely ridiculed for having no mandates, have seen the same drop. Likewise with our neighbors, Wisconsin and Indiana, that have no mandates:

Let’s get a bit more specific. Both Pritzker’s office and ABC Springfield seem to be attributing the case decline to the vaccination mandate in particular. The ABC Springfield video claims there was a “massive spike” in vaccinations after Pritzker’s mandate.

Not true. In fact, vaccinations dropped significantly after Pritzker’s mandate, as you can see at the tail end of the chart below.  It, too, is from the CDC, and you can look at it more closely on their site. Vaccinations bumped up for a few days after Pritzker’s mandate, but fell far more after that. The nation as a whole, which is the grey line, followed a similar path.

So, if anything, the drop in vaccinations after Pritzker’s mandate might support the claim by some that mandates only increase vaccine hesitancy.

I don’t claim to know all the reasons why case numbers have dropped in Illinois and nationally. However, it’s clear that something else must be happening that should not be attributed to Pritzker’s mandates.

I also want to emphasize that this is not an anti-vax message. Vaccines unquestionably are cutting the number of cases here and everywhere. Personally, I think there remain many unvaccinated people at risk who should get the jab. Those are primarily the elderly and the obese. COVID remains dangerous to the elderly and those with comorbidities.

It’s mandates, however, that I question, because I think the vaccination should be a matter left to the ethical and legal principle of informed consent. Those with natural immunity from prior infections, in particular, should not be subject to a vaccination mandate.

And I am particularly fed up with comments like we saw from Pritzker’s office saying “following science works.”

Yes, it does, but making up stuff does not.

*Mark Glennon is founder of Wirepoints.

19 Comments
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Terry G
2 years ago

jb’s biggest fear is IL might lead in “cases.” His mandates allow him to say “I did everything in my power to kill the virus and protect my voters.” What a putz.

Not the Senator's Son
2 years ago

Mark, you are 100% correct.

susan
2 years ago

Are prisons, jails, and police holding facilities (including back seats of cop cars)mandating prisoners’ vaccination? Are southern border holding facilities mandating vaccines (for COVID, and TB and other prevalent diseases of other countries)? Why are civil rights so carefully protected for some while carelessly trampled for others? Those who see fit to state that the ethical and legal principals of informed consent should be disregarded deserve to be avoided as a matter of personal self-defense. Denial of service can work both ways. A Communist-esque (with Leaders enjoying special exemptions and privileges) country needn’t employ torture and re-education camps as persuasive… Read more »

NoHope4Illinois
2 years ago

Pritzker has done this now three times by my count – timing a E.O. mandate so as to take any credit for the dropoff which was going to happen anyhow. Pure fraud.

Andrew H.
2 years ago

Mark, I unfortunately have to disagree with you again about vaccine mandates. We need over 90% of our population to be fully vaccinated and end this pandemic; current rates will cause result in more virus mutations and cause this to drag on and on. There need to be strong vaccine mandates with only very limited exceptions granted for legitimate medical reasons. Vaccine mandates have been around since the days of George Washington, and there is no reason to stop now. We can eradicate Covid-19 with the help of vaccines and mandates.

Joey Zamboni
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon
Everett Flatch
2 years ago
Reply to  Joey Zamboni

A quote from one of the original researchers of the chicken vaccine, “Extrapolating from our chicken work to argue against vaccination because of the delta variant has no scientific rationale: The delta variant would have become dominant even if everyone refused vaccination.”

https://theconversation.com/vaccines-could-affect-how-the-coronavirus-evolves-but-thats-no-reason-to-skip-your-shot-165960

James
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

He’s afraid. Facts are then assembled, obliging you to soothe his fears. (Misery DEMANDS company.)

Not the Senator's Son
2 years ago
Reply to  Andrew H.

Very sorry to see that you are obviously NOT following The Science.

Wilmette
2 years ago
Reply to  Andrew H.

Show me the studies supporting 90%. Tell me where they are so I can read them. What is the precedent. These bureaucrats just make up these numbers as we go — Fauci himself keeps increasing the numbers. Listin to Scott Gotlieb talk about how the 6 foot social distancing was basically out of thin air by politicians sitting around a table. Vaxx mandates have never destroyed lives. Avoiding Spanish Flu vaxx meant a $5 fine. Not firing employees or preventing you from going to a restaurant/school/grocery store. I can’t believe so many people have bought into this nonsense. Wake up… Read more »

Last edited 2 years ago by Wilmette
Hunter's Lap Dance
2 years ago
Reply to  Andrew H.

Nice to know you identify as state property.

Who should I call to lease you for parties?

Mark
2 years ago
Reply to  Andrew H.

Check out Israel,and Sweden. I can also remember that moron on WGN mornings saying if everyone wore a mask for 2 weeks this would dissapear

Joey Zamboni
2 years ago

***—Pritzker’s press secretary tweeted, “Pritzker’s mandates appear to reduce COVID-19 cases in Illinois.”—***

So, the logical next statement should be: “Therefore the mask mandate will no longer be in effect as of 1 OCT 21…”

Because *following the science works*…

Last edited 2 years ago by Joey Zamboni
Mike Z
2 years ago

Pritzker is the equivalent of the toddler in the back seat of mommy’s car with a toy steering wheel-once in a while the car goes in the direction he turns the wheel.

Wilmette
2 years ago
Reply to  Mike Z

Lol

Not the Senator's Son
2 years ago
Reply to  Mike Z

Mike Z You are correct. Pritzker is simply a School Yard Bully. I’ll bet he bullied kids in school too.

GM
2 years ago

All he needs is a beanie hat with a propeller on top, lol…

Thee Jabroni
2 years ago

im pretty sure the little fat man was the geek that GOT bullied

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A statewide concern: Illinois’ population decline outpaces neighboring states – Wirepoints on ABC20 Champaign

“We are not in good shape” Wirepoints’ Ted Dabrowski told ABC 20 Champaign during a segment on Illinois’ latest population losses. Illinois was one of just three states to shrink in the 2010-2020 period and has lost another 300,000 people since then. Ted says things need to change. “It’s too expensive to live here, there aren’t enough good jobs and nobody trusts the government anymore. There’s just other places to go where you can be more satisfied.”

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