By: Mark Glennon*
Total revenue for Illinois continued to decline in November. That’s based on comparison of both this November to last November and this fiscal year through November to last year.
That bad news is in the monthly briefing from COGFA, Illinois’ Commission on Governmental Forecasting and Accountability. “Last month’s briefing mentioned concern with FY 2017 revenue performance—that concern continues to grow,” says COGFA.
For this November, the bright spot was an increase in personal income tax revenue, which exceeded last November’s by $75 million. However, that improvement was offset by declines in revenue from the corporate income tax and sales tax, as well as smaller transfers from the federal government. For the fiscal year to date, all major sources of state revenue are down — corporate and personal income tax, sales tax and federal transfers. In total, revenue for the fiscal year to date (June – November) is off $607 million compared to last year.
As we’ve noted before, this shrinkage in state revenue is no longer attributable to expiration of the temporary income tax increase.
State revenue is not recovering. It’s shrinking.
*Mark Glennon is founder of WirePoints. Opinions expressed are his own.
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
The state’s existing buyout program for its own pensions is the precedent for Chicago, which should be a warning: Look out for similar exaggerated claims and shoddy analysis.
Why is it a “bright spot” if the people got to keep less of their money? This article is biased in thinking “more revenue for government”, is somehow better than “more revenue for individual families” in the form of lower taxes. If the state is getting les of our money, that’s a very positive development.
The state tax rate is the same this year vs. a year ago, so an increase in revenue from personal income taxes means personal income is up overall across the state. Said differently, if there are more people working and earning money and paying taxes – all the pillars of a healthy economy – then state income tax revenues will increase.
Unfortunately there is no increase in revenue. And people are leaving Illinois at record levels.