New revenue estimates for the State of Illinois are out from COGFA, the state’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability.
For the current fiscal year, which ends on June 30, revenues look good. “Through the first two-thirds of FY 2022, overall base receipts are up an impressive $2.125 billion [over the previous fiscal year],” says COGFA.
The problem is next year. For the fiscal year starting this July, COGFA projects a 4.5% decrease in revenue. That means an overall reduction in revenues of $2.171 billion. That falloff includes the one-time impact of money from the federal government under the American Rescue plan.
Importantly, however, it also includes a forecasted drop of $671 million in general funds revenues.
There’s plenty of uncertainty in these projections in light of recent economic chaos. As COGFA said, understatedly, “recent history shows that unpredictable events could alter the landscape and impact on these forecasts.”
What has been clear to us, however, is that current tax revenues have been artificially spiked by the astonishing amount of money pumped into Illinois by the federal government under the guise of pandemic relief, which now totals some $180 billion. That includes not just the $8.1 billion that went directly to the state, but all private sector assistance that helped generate current tax revenue.
Gov. JB Pritzker recently testified before a Congressional oversight committee and claimed that Illinois now has budget surpluses projected “for years to come.” We’ve never seen any such projection from any office in Illinois. Once the federal pandemic relief ends, Illinois’ fiscal crisis will return, unchanged.
-Mark Glennon
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
The state’s existing buyout program for its own pensions is the precedent for Chicago, which should be a warning: Look out for similar exaggerated claims and shoddy analysis.
There will be no default. The pensioners will get paid back with a 70%+ cut related to inflation, and most still won’t know “who to blame”. It’ll be funny except for that the degenerate United States will finally lose huge in standard of living. Most of the urban areas will be war zones. Suburban IL won’t feel all that good.
Hey, can’t say we didn’t tell you so.
Budget surpluses for years to come? We’ll see. Guaranteed you and I won’t see any rebates. Beyond suspending the gas tax increase temporarily, don’t expect the governor to cut Illinois’ gas taxes like other states are doing to ease the inflation burden on their citizens. Better that our wallets are thinner than the state’s. Greed and fiscal mismanagement know no bounds.
Pritzker’s goal appears to be lie to get re-elected and then push for a tax increase and borrowing to paper over the continued structural deficit. This is criminal. Lying to Congress is against the law. If Republicans take the house, he most definitely should be prosecuted.
The fiscal management of the state has been criminal for years. Madigan needs to go to prison, Pritzker needs to go too. Even empty suit Irvin would be better than him.
With the direction the economy is headed in 4.5% is an optimistic estimate.
with inflation not included in COGFA projections?