Editorial: The Real House Democratic Nightmare: Democrats could lose 10 seats in 2030 as voters flee blue states – Wall Street Journal

"Start with the raw numbers. Between 2020 and 2024, California (-1,465,116), New York (-966,209) and Illinois (-418,056) lost the population equivalent of Kansas to other states. Texas (747,730) and Florida (872,722) gained the equivalent of West Virginia. Utah, Idaho, Arizona and North Carolina also experienced a rush of newcomers."
22 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
your dime, your dance floor
7 months ago

The most interesting ramification of this population swing will be the electoral college for the 2032 election. It’s not as simple as red states picking up 10 and blue states losing 10. North Carolina and Arizona will pick up 1 electoral vote each, but they are moving into swing state territory along with Georgia, rather than being solid red at the presidential level as been their history. In the 70’s – 80’s these states voted heavily republican, sometimes at the rate of 2 – 1, but not so much recently. In the last 5 presidential elections: North Carolina voted blue… Read more »

your dime, your dance floor
7 months ago

I don’t agree with the author’s analysis that the democrats could lose 10 congressional seats after the next census. I don’t disagree on the number of seats gained or lost by each state but reapportionment will be more complicated than the raw numbers suggest. California and New York, if they lose a combined 6 congressional seats, will just gerrymander 6 republican districts from their two states. In essence 6 republican congressional districts will move from New York and California to Florida and Texas. A net change of zero seats.  The real state to watch is Wisconsin. If you look at… Read more »

Leaving Soon, just not soon enough
7 months ago

Democrats tend to stay Democrats; Republicans tend to stay Republicans. The Red states are hoping that the democrats do not bring their politics with them. They are leaving because of what the public sector unions have done to them. The Public Sector has destroyed the quality of life for everyone but themselves. PPF please stay in Illinois.

PPF
7 months ago

May move to Florida, Tennessee, Texas, Michigan, Missouri or Wisconsin. Stay away from those places Poor Taxpayer. Heavily leaning towards Tennessee with its zero income taxes, favorable estate planning and low property taxes. A retiree can really make their fixed income pension last in a state like Tennessee.

Your dime, your dance floor
7 months ago
Reply to  PPF

And possibly add a blue voter to a red state (I don’t actually know how you vote, but….).

PPF
7 months ago

Why would you think I would be a “blue voter”? Because I believe in following the constitution? Because I don’t think it’s right to offer people a public pension where they had no opportunity to opt out, and don’t want to let the state get away with cheating retirees what was contractually promised them? When did following the laws that we all agreed to and the constitution that we help craft become a “blue voter”. In fact the pension clause was introduced by republicans because they believed it was unfair to cheat public workers after decades of service and wanted… Read more »

ProzacPlease
7 months ago
Reply to  PPF

Eloquent. And I actually believe you, to a point.

But you absolutely reject any compromise that would reduce pensions somewhat, but would spread the pain between taxpayers and pensioners. You cheer for increases to public worker contracts, knowing they only make the situation worse. And you insist the voters really want to make sure public employees suffer no repercussions of fiscal malfeasance. Voters prefer to take on the entire burden themselves.

Sounds more like hiding your own beneficial interest behind claims of righteousness.

PPF
7 months ago
Reply to  ProzacPlease

“But you absolutely reject any compromise that would reduce pensions” Yes. That would be theft. Would you have any sympathy for a thief that told you he was only going to steal some of the money in your wallet and you should be ok with it because they didn’t take more. What kind of compromise is that? They earned that money based on what the state offered them. If the state needs more money it needs to come from the taxpayer base as a whole not from what is owed to pensions. If you want public pensioners to pay more… Read more »

Your dime, your dance floor
7 months ago
Reply to  PPF

I never said I thought you were a blue voter. I said you could possibly be a blue voter which also means that you could possibly not be a blue voter and I followed that up stating that I have no idea how you vote. That’s all.

PPF
7 months ago

You wrote “I don’t know how you actually vote, but…” Certainly seemed like that’s what you were insinuating. Not sure how to take that sentence any other way.

With that said, I’m glad you wrote it as several here believe because I don’t want to steal pensions that I must vote blue. Pretty wild thinking if you ask me.

your dime, your dance floor
7 months ago
Reply to  PPF

Fair enough.

Tom Paine's Ghost
7 months ago
Reply to  PPF

“A thief can really make their stolen loot last in a state like Tennessee”. There. Fixed it for you. You’re welcome.

PPF
7 months ago

Only a jealous loser would think a retired police officer, firefighter or teacher is a “thief” for collecting what the state offered them for working that career. It sucks that Illinois has to raise taxes because of their debt but I truly enjoy seeing your complaints. It’s very rewarding knowing that you have to pay more money. Enjoy!

Ataraxis
7 months ago

Want a fairer Illinois election? ICE agents at each Illinois polling place.

the doctor
7 months ago
Reply to  Ataraxis

The fraudulent ballots are all being mailed in. Need ICE before ballots are mailed out.

Ataraxis
7 months ago
Reply to  the doctor

Agreed. Feds need to force Illinois to clean up the voter rolls.

9mm
7 months ago

Alexi Giannoulias is playing his part handing out id cards at the dmv like it’s Halloween. Does anyone think for a minute our new arrivals won’t be casting a ballot or filling out a census card. Give me a break.

Tom Paine's Ghost
7 months ago

Democrats will lose more than ten seats once the criminal illegal immigrants are no longer counted in the census.

PPF
7 months ago

So never then. Illegals will continue to be counted in the census as required by the constitution. Kids born to illegals will also remain citizens. That constitution keeps getting in the way of your delusions TPG. It’s amazing how you are consistently wrong on almost every legal issue. lol

Hello, Indiana!
7 months ago

May the Dems die slowly, choking on their DEI.

earthling
7 months ago

the same to the GOP with their corporate welfare & christian nationalism

ProzacPlease
7 months ago

Trump fed them a heaping helping of DEI with naming Gloria Gaynor for a Kennedy Center award. Everyone knows that’s ridiculous, but they don’t dare question it. One disco hit in the 70’s? He’s shoving DEI down their throats.

SIGN UP HERE FOR FREE WIREPOINTS DAILY NEWSLETTER

Home Page Signup
First
Last
Check what you would like to receive:

FOLLOW US

 

WIREPOINTS ORIGINAL STORIES

Mark Glennon on AM560’s Morning Answer: Chicago pension buyout plan mostly shifts debt rather than eliminating it, property tax surge doubles inflation over three decades

Chicago’s political leadership is floating a pension buyout program as evidence it is seriously addressing the city’s thirty-six-billion-dollar unfunded pension liability, but Mark Glennon, founder of the Illinois policy research organization Wirepoints, said that the proposal moves debt from one column to another rather than reducing it, and that the broader fiscal picture facing the city continues to deteriorate across every measurable dimension. Audio here.

Read More »

WE’RE A NONPROFIT AND YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS ARE DEDUCTIBLE.

SEARCH ALL HISTORY

CONTACT / TERMS OF USE