If annual income tax revenue growth caused by secular income growth matches the state’s recent experience, the progressive income tax rates passed by the Senate will fail to pay off the state’s pension debt – ever.

In a preliminary plan called “Rebuild Illinois” and shared with legislators Friday, the governor allocated $175 million to build and improve cost-effective housing options primarily for seniors, those who are homeless, and people with disabilities.

The preliminary analysis of Illinois officials pointed to non-wage taxes like capital gains and dividends playing a large part in the revenue surge.

“As a result, this significant one month overperformance cannot safely be extrapolated into future underlying growth,” according to the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability.

A republication of our Wirepoints article.

Comment: She beat The Machine and her commitment to ethics reform appears real, making this a genuinely historic day for Chicago. But pity her for the impossible fiscal mess she has inherited.

Rahm has a new gig: Contributing Editor at The Atlantic. This is his first article.

An actuary’s perspective.