By: Matt Rosenberg
It’s back. Namely, that specious argument that Chicago’s murder problem is nothing much to worry about because there’ve been other years when the total was considerably higher. The “So what? It used to be worse” argument is utter nonsense and callous, dehumanizing, and dangerous.
Yet in exactly this vein a Chicago columnist for Politico recently wrote that there is “a perception that crime remains a reality even when numbers show otherwise.” The columnist then further articulated that, after all, Chicago’s crime totals were higher in the late 1980s and 1990s than in 2022. In addition, the blog Capitol Fax approvingly highlighted the same defense – the dismissive view that crime concerns are exaggerated now because of greater media coverage and because “…many Chicagoans…don’t remember the 80s.”
But the “remember-the-bad-old-days” partisans evading present-day Chicago crime themselves forget some inconvenient data. In the 12 years covering 2004 through 2015, the city averaged 454 murders a year. That was versus 2022’s 695 criminal homicides in Chicago, the highest in the nation. That 12-year average of 454 annual murders should be the city’s immediate interim target. Not “less than 900.” Then aim for the 177 murders a year acknowledged in 2020 by Mayor Lightfoot in a major crime strategy report (p. 4) as a tough but important performance benchmark. Setting the bar at merely less than 900 homicides a year is effectively a way to rationalize murder. A lot of it, too. It’s a gold-plated invitation to the worst among us.
It’s true that the city’s all-time homicide highs were 970 in 1974, followed by 940 in 1992, and 930 in 1994. But cherry-picking some of the worst years in modern history from 30 to 50 years ago – plus two recent and anomalously high-crime years – in order to minimize Chicago’s nation’s-worst homicide total is an exercise in tone-deaf political spin.
Here are five reasons the argument to downplay Chicago’s still-outsize annual murder total is so wrong.
1. It glibly skates past the reality of hundreds of black men, women, and children being murdered in Chicago today, each year. It amounts to “these black lives don’t matter.” When Politico says there is “a perception that crime remains a reality even when numbers show otherwise,” it means Chicago’s 695 homicide victims of 2022 do not comprise “a reality” of crime. Their loved ones would beg to differ. “It’s not as bad as the 90s” is an affront to human decency.
2. It’s grossly inconsistent. Laquan MacDonald is everything, but 700 murders is nothing? Sorry. We can’t really have it both ways. On the one hand there is a rightful hue and cry and pledges to thoroughly investigate whenever a black or Latino man dies in an officer-involved shooting. Yet some of the very same voices want to downplay the 695 murders in Chicago in 2022. Murders mostly of black men. The only humane and responsible approach is to understand, to espouse, and to act upon the reality that all crime victims and particularly all homicide victims matter.
3. It’s illogical. Many of today’s Chicago violent crime and murder victims weren’t even born when those all-time record highs were set. Ask their grieving families and friends if they’re comforted by the higher homicide levels of 1974, 1992, or 1994. Today’s victims of homicide and other violent crimes in Chicago have known little but urban violence rising and falling each year, and then rocketing higher since mid-2020. To tell the city that crime today is not a urgent concern because annual murders aren’t running higher than totals in selected years or decades past is to forfeit any notion of civic improvement. It is also to turn tail on today’s competition between cities for residents, tourism, and employers – in which crime is a very real consideration.
4. It ignores data from the peaceful years of 2004 – 2015. Then there is the inconvenient Chicago murder data from the relatively peaceful years of 2004 through 2015 when murders averaged a lower 454 per year. Why should this not be the interim standard against which to measure 2022, and 2021, and 2020 murder totals in Chicago. Do we really want to wave proudly a flag that says: “Chicago: Another year of less than 970 murders”?
5. We should be aiming to do much better. Lightfoot herself voiced in 2020 the need to aim for 177 criminal homicides a year in Chicago to pull closer to New York and Los Angeles in homicide rate. That would put Chicago at 6.6 per 100,000, comparable to New York’s 2022 rate of 5.1 and better than L.A.’s 9.9. Instead, Chicago’s 2022 homicide rate was 25.8. That’s less disastrous than the city’s rate for 2020 – but far higher than 2010 or 2000 and not much better than 1980 or 1990. (Details in comments).
The argument that a third straight year of 700 murders or more in Chicago is somehow no great concern because it used to be worse is a vote to let our city rot and sink.
Anyone who supports such an idea has clearly cast their lot with the worried and self-interested political elite and against the people of Chicago. There should be no quarter, no relief, and no tolerance for this retrograde view.
It amounts to an endorsement of murder. That is, so long as there are not more than 900 of them a year.
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
Oh boy, what’s another murder here or there? People are becoming numb to all this, which is very dangerous. And add in all the carjacking, mugging, robbing …..it just keeps going further off the charts.
HEYJACKASS.COM
The real story about death and violence in Chicago. No handing out of fluff pieces about what a great job Lightfoot and its team is doing.
Maybe the race of the murder victims needs to be publicized so that murder will be looked at as a form of racism. Would that grab peoples attention? Even one murder is too much.
This issue is not really about the murders…It’s about the shootings. The hospitals have done a much better job keeping folks alive. I would suspect if the data was viewed from the standpoint of shootings it would look much worse
I’ve thought the same for years! That it’s not about shootings is egregiously intentional.
Saying “it’s not as bad as” only allows it to continue. How about “it’s much worse than”, or maybe even “this is just not acceptable”.
Excellent column as usual, Matt.
Our society at large has become way too desensitized to violent crimes such as murder, sexual assault, etc. Making the excuse that the murder rate in Chicago “is not as bad as it was in the past” is the argument of an immature, intellectually lazy, arrogant and uncaring mind. Lightfoot and Foxx are the very definition of all of those traits.
I love the chart, and so much want to share on social media a simple message: “I have a response to people who like to say murder and crime was worse in the 1990s: F*** YOU.”
One hates to be crude, but it gets tiresome when the Chip Mitchells of the world (covers crime for WBEZ and Sun-Times) focus only on police abuse and ignore the pain in which attacking our institutions has wrought.
Let me repeat Matt’s sentiment: “ Anyone who supports such an idea has clearly cast their lot with the worried and self-interested political elite and against the people of Chicago. There should be no quarter, no relief, and no tolerance for this retrograde view.”
When will the people in Chicago say enough is enough? Why aren’t the people marching in the streets demanding change?
When it’s too late.
Whenever I read statistical evidence, I am reminded of the quote contributed to Benjamin Desrali , concerning the fact that there are LIES, DAMN LIES, And STATISTICS. I believe reasons for fewer murders may have to do with the fact that medical knowledge in treating gun wounds has come a long way. Also, I know regarding shootings that one statistical shooting may involve 10 wounded, but it is considered one shooting. My new reality is a fear of crime and no faith in our criminal justice system.
Bring Back ‘3 Strikes’ … and then put these rabid Animals Down!
I’ve been a crime victim. In 3rd grade someone stole my lunch. The teacher did nothing, the cops did nothing. My peanut butter and jelly sandwich was gone. I was assaulted as well, duct tapped to my locker by vicious bullies. The teacher did nothing, the cops did nothing and the firemen that cut me off the locker laughed at me. On the playground they wouldn’t let me play tag so I sat alone in a corner clutching my rubber toy soldier that was in my pocket. Oh the crime, oh the suffering I went through. I’m mentally challenged these… Read more »
The majority of Americans have resigned themselves to accepting policing as it currently exists. The beating of Nichols, a 29-year-old Black man.
You mean a complete anomaly? Some of us are tired of knowing less than 1% of police use of force incidents could be considered excessive, that Chicago has 150 people shot by citizen for every 1 by cop, and racial disparities map onto crime. An incident involving a black citizens is 12 times more likely to get news coverage? 2 people killed by cops in Chicago last year the lowest in record with zero media acknowledgment.
Tell me who’s brainwashed?
Tell me what’s the real problem?
Debating anything with that idiot is like talking to a post
Trying to sugar coat Chicago’s murder statistics is disingenuous and misleading. The Chicago Bears have not beaten the Green Bay Packers since September 9, 2018. But hey…it’s not as bad as when they lost to them 55-14 in 2014. Does that really matter? Of course not. It’s the trend that has to be the focus. From 2010 to 2019 Chicago averaged 518 homicides annually. For the past three years that average has spiked to 755. That’s a 46% increase. Has no one asked why this trend is occurring? If nothing else it’s a public health issue. Homicide is the leading… Read more »
Spot on. Homicides are down in Detroit too. What’s never mentioned is the population is less than half of Detroit in its heyday.
Matt does an exceptional job as he works to harvest statistical information and then works it into an article outlining the concerns of civilized, thinking people. Reading today’s offering, a thought re-surfaced…just where EXACTLY do these statistics come from? Who keeps track of the big black leather book into which a green visored old gentleman, dipping his pen into his ink and drawing his pen across the parchment in his best Spencerian Script, inscribes the names of those victims of the Dark Streets? I guess it’s now a computer “somewhere”, and “someone” enters the names gathered from here and there….but… Read more »
To support your contention- those murdered in Chicago are NAMELESS.
So insignificant and unremarkable, that they aren’t worth identifying to the public.
That to me says everything about how unimportant these people and their loss to the community are.
But, they aren’t unimportant and their passing IS significant.
Another terrific data driven piece that shreds the spin to pieces.
Tyre Nichols, the man who died this month after an alleged beating by five police officers
Get ready for Riots and cops doing nothing but collecting lots of overtime and spiking pensions. Great work if you can get it.
Somewhat unrelated. Can anyone tell me what’s happening with insurance rates in Chicago/Illinois given the increasing crime? With all the carjackings I would expect claims, and therefore premiums, would be going thru the roof?
Well you can’t get insurance for a Kia in Chicago.
It is said to see Chicago regress, but until Chicago voters change the way they vote they will get more of the same. As the violence spills out of the neighborhoods that have been traditionally been known for being bad, and into the the neighborhoods known for being peaceful people will act shocked but still nothing will be done till it peaks. Will we have to wait till it hits 850-900 a year before something is done? Probably
What we have here is Democrats killing Democrats.. all black on black, No NRA Member, no FOID cards…………….and I bet no white Republicans, just using round numbers at 500 per year or 5,000 per decade and if we go back 5 Decades we have over 50,000 black Democrats killing 50,000 black Democrats… But Chicago has Been under Democratic rule since time Began, so lets Blame Whitey
This is the Elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about
That is a new low even for Lightfoot and Brown
Yes, the politicians cherry-pick the comparison years because, guess what, some years there were more murders and some years were less. The most important information is – do people feel safe? Are tourists flocking in? Are businesses/ employers moving in? Are residents moving in? If violent crime is impacting those numbers, then that is a situation that needs remedy.
Lori Lightfoot is an admitted progressive, and her progressive policies have damaged the city almost beyond repair. Let’s also look at the types of crimes. Burning, looting, carjacking–to my recollection, none of those crimes were even a factor in the early 70s or early 90s, for that matter. Too many criminal are set free by Kim Foxx and others, only to perpetuate the same or worse crimes. Again and again. One might think Governor Pritzker, whose Hyatt hotels dominate the skyline, might show concern but sadly, his views are also progressive so that leaves the citizens with police who fear… Read more »
Very well written and straight to the reality of what’s happening in Chicago and to some extent, the rest of Illinois.
Exactly. Why is the rest of the media not saying this?
It’s breathtaking isn’t it? They find this rampant murder acceptable, on some level. How do the people who live in these neighborhoods feel about? Are they comfored k owing “only” a certain number of people died? Do they accept that’s just part of daily life in Chicago? If that’s the case, the “powers that be” have zero regard for the residents who are forced to endure this constant blood shed. They’re written off, disregarded, dismissed, and disrespected. The mayor has no doubt given up on the people and decided for them that it’s normal and acceptable to live in a… Read more »
The reality is that they want to kill each other without interference from the systemically racist criminal ‘justice’ system. They’d rather kill or be killed by their enemies, but be free from state interference, than face prison time. That’s what they voted for. That’s what they are getting: the return to the 1970’s and the 1990’s where gangs operated out in the open with impunity and a culture of ‘snitches get stitches’ lead to record homicide rates. In hindsight, the 1990’s tough on crime laws that increased incarceration and the feds crack down on gang leaders slowly ended the mayhem.
Well Mary, they’re also the party of abortion. They should rename themselves the “Life’s Cheap Party.”
“
Word salad and deflection 🤦♀️ while Rome burns those that don’t care about gangbangers and thugs are fiddling away Chicago’s precious youth. Those in Chicago have a choice to make. Close well my friends this could be your last chance.
Apologies voice to text is not my friend.
While these statistics argue about relatively small numbers of murders in the city, I do believe that the escalating random acts of ‘general gun violence’ is a far more meaningful measure. Inarguably, most of these homicides occur in areas of the city that do not affect the readership of this column. I’d suggest that it’s the ‘random violence’ that occurs on our turf that troubles us most. If we ride the Metra, drive or walk to work we’re very rarely affected by the random crime. If we drive to our jobs…. we’re invariable quite safe. It’s the random acts of… Read more »
Crime during the 1970’s and 1990’s affected more areas because the city was not gentrified. Today the crime is spreading into good neighboorhoods. Check out this snippet about 1991 Chicago: 922 HOMICIDES MADE 1991 YEAR TO FORGET [SNIP] The year that passed into history at midnight Tuesday achieved some notorious distinctions: 262 people under the age of 21 were killed in Chicago in 1991, more than ever before. Killings with Uzi submachine guns and other automatic weapons became chillingly commonplace. A record number of gang-related killings occurred, most of them linked to drug trafficking. August, when 121 people were slain,… Read more »
Thank you for the stats….
Violent crime and murder in Chicago must be the number one focus in our next election. There seems to be only two candidates that have some solutions to act correctly on this. Paul Vallas or Dr. Willy Wilson. Let’s pray one of them gets elected.
Whoa Whoa! It’s gotta be true! Arbuckle told the audience at Davos that Chicago crime is dropping. A known liar tells a lie to a room full of liars and charlatans. Watch them all closely.
So Mayor Lightfoot would be happy with “only” 177 murders in Chicago this year, as if what many see to be an unattainable goal itself is somehow good? What alternative universe does she find herself in? Why doesn’t she start to promote strengthening families with one mother and one father, united in marriage to the exclusion of all others, until death do they part? Families that strive to live by the Ten Commandments, and encourage respect and honor and virtue. What’s so complicated about that? It’s not complicated at all. Of course she will need a conversion of heart, and… Read more »
Increasingly, or perhaps because we are paying more attention, the powers that be cherry pick the numbers to alibi terrible performance. It doesn’t matter if it is the Biden administration trying to tell us how great the economy is, despite inflation, or lying to us about the flood of immigrants at the border…it is all in the vein of putting lipstick on a pig, and they ought to be ashamed of themselves — but they never are.
Since about 98% of all murders in Chicago are committed by POC the fact remains that until severe penalties are handed out to the serial gun violators and not barely slapped on the wrist by the restorative justice states attorney the violence will continue. That narrative of punishing the real criminals just is not part of the progressive agenda who scream racism because too many POC are arrested and in prison. Looking at the stats it’s quite apparent what and who the problem is and the failure of cook county justice just adds to mayhem. Nothing will change until the… Read more »
Yet, one of our Mayoral candidates believes that more money pumped into CPS, will cure the problem. Aren’t we already spending more per student, than any other U.S. city?
Leadership: If it saves one life – thwarts one murder – then it is worth whatever is involved, be it the use of persuasion – both at the legislative level or the moral arena – to accomplish that goal.
Our leaders have accepted numbers far greater than 1, and thus we have the situation we have: no leadership; no moral proposition valuing human life at all stages – especially by the Democratic Party; and thus, the decay and our degeneration to a “Clockwork Orange” society.
We can and must do better.
Amen. Put political aspirations aside and do what’s right for each person, each community and the entire city. However, politicians don’t ever seem to have the requisite leadership qualities. Such an evil profession.
Looking forward to retirement as millionaires, seems to be the passion.
It would be interesting to see the murder rate per 100,000 people in the city of Chicago. Could it be that the higher murder rates mentioned in the 70’s and 80’s were actually lower because of Chicago’s population back than? It would also be interesting to break these same stats down by race.
Mark, actually, I just pulled that together. Focus on Census touchpoint (Decennial) years plus 2022, using official population and murder totals for Chicago. A truncated historical view. Bottom line: The murder rates for Chicago in 2020 and 2022 are not the highest ever, versus Census touchpoint years, but they are much worse than 2000 and 2010 – *and* not far off from the worst of the seven touchpoint years examined here. The data (murder totals from CPD Annual Reports, and population from the U.S.Census) is as follows: 1970: Chicago murder rate of 24.1 per 100K population 1980: 28.7 per 100K… Read more »
https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Ander%20testimony.pdf
Useful University of Chicago per capita murder rate by year 1991-2020.
Chicago’s four worst neighborhoods have a higher per capita rate today than during the worst of the 1990’s, roughly 30% higher; and Chicago’s four best neighborhoods are about a third lower than they were during the 1990’s.
Matt Rosenberg’s third-to-last paragraph summarizes the terror perfectly, “The argument that a third straight year of 700 murders or more in Chicago is somehow no great concern because it used to be worse, is a vote to let our city rot and sink.” In the view of me and my family, Chicago is completely rotten and has already sunk. We never go in anymore. Never. No more museums, no more parks, no more Navy Pier, Mag Mile, State Street, or River North. No more nothing. None of our dollars are spent in Chicago now. None. What I miss… Read more »
You are so right!
Most of us have listened to Lori for years. We’ve heard her litany of excuses as to why. When speaking of criminals she stated they need hugs. Oh ok. Then it was this is the fault of covid. Oh ok. We’ve had to endure crazy videos of the census Cowboy, her singing karaoke and numerous others. I shook my head as I said out loud please do your job. Many in my age group will no longer go downtown our once beautiful city. Lori has repeatedly turned her back on the very officers she wants to protect. They are leaving… Read more »
I don’t know how you continue to be such a positive person, Matt, having to wallow in crime like you do. But thanks for the hard work!
James Q Wilson brought some Americans back to sanity in his 1975 book Thinking About Crime. As Wilson pointed out, since the 1960s the United States had waged a massive war on poverty through the enormous social welfare programs of the Great Society. If poverty and oppression caused crime, then surely crime should have decreased since the Civil Rights legislation of President Johnson—which had expanded exponentially after he left office. But instead, the crime explosion seems statistically linked to the explosion of social welfare programs themselves. Wilson convinced millions of Americans that liberal ideas about crime effectively made excuses for criminal… Read more »
Please add that while overall murders down slightly, I believe shootings have trended upward. That our trauma surgeons are better at their craft saving lives should not let Lightfoot and her ilk off the hook at the ever-increasing lack of feeling safe while living in Chicago.
Cops do not fight crime, they buy luxury homes in Punta Gorda, Fl.
Cops do not stay in Chicago, far too dangerous place to raise a family.
Give it up already. Are you a defund the police person masquerading as a conservative?
Most cops perform their duties honorably within the bureaucracy that restricts doing their job effectively. If you are unhappy with their pensions, blame the legislators who approved it, not the workers who earned it. Don’t blame them either for retiring in Punta Gorda, a far safer and warmer place to live … I don’t.
Do not need excuse for not doing a job that I am paying for. If the job is not going to be done, I do not need to pay in the private sector. They are lucky they are not paid by performance. Welfare would pay more. I am a super conservative and want protection that I pay for. I have to pay some of the highest taxes in the US and get the worst services. Not a good fit if you ask me.
The Chitty of Chicago is the murder capital of the USA.
They are Number 1 in something.
It is not safe for anyone, private law-abiding citizens or criminals.
“You can’t charge me for murder. It was an accident. That’s wasn’t the person I was shooting at.”
It’s the old “decrease” in the “increase” mind trick that seems to work so well for them…
Same thing applies to taxes, “we only raised your tax 3% instead of 10%”…
The spin isn’t wrong, it’s fraud. It’s a deliberate attempt to deceive. Anyone in the private sector who committed the level of fraud the fat man and Lightweight are committing would be in jail
The Chicago population in 1974, 1992, and 1994 was significant higher than in 2022. Matt should calculate the murders per 100,000 of the population in those three years. These murders are also not confined “those” parts of the city, it includes Lincoln Park, the Mag Mile, etc. It’s not only murders, its car jackings. Car jackings are much more violent than the old days of some kid stealing an empty car for a joyride. The jacked cars are used to commit other crimes. The media does not seem to contradict Lightfoot and Pritzker when they brag crime is down.
Wally – For the 1991-2021 period see the UofC Crime Lab information
https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Ander%20testimony.pdf
Couldn’t find per capita rates by city in prior years.
This chart from the linked report above is even more telling.
LOL i just linked this chart too without first seeing your post. Great minds think alike!
Here you go. Compared to LA and New York over time through 2021…piece linked below.
https://wirepoints.org/chicago-2022-homicide-rate-5-times-higher-than-new-york-citys-2-5-times-higher-than-los-angeles-wirepoints/
The Chitty of Chicago is NOT SAFE at any speed. Just ask Ken Griffen.
The Chitty is its own worst enemy. It is a cancer patient dying a little more every day.