By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
Worries about the impact of the SAFE-T Act and no-cash bail were clearly overblown, you may have recently heard Chicago and Illinois lawmakers say. They claim that one year after the act’s passage, Chicago didn’t explode into lawlessness and in fact, crime is down compared to last year. So to them, everything is under control.
Similar can be heard of Chicago’s use of ShotSpotter, the gunshot-detection technology. Mayor Brandon Johnson let the program expire on Monday, saying the city doesn’t need the “walkie-talkie on a pole” program.
No, the facts aren’t that simple. The SAFE-T Act certainly succeeded in its goal of reducing jail populations – but could crime have been even lower today had the act not been passed? And ShotSpotter has purportedly saved 85 Chicagoans lives – would they be murder statistics absent the technology? The limited data and the dysfunctional nature of Chicago’s criminal justice system makes answering these kinds of questions definitively nearly impossible.
What we do know is this. Crime in Chicago is still a national outlier, so releasing more criminals out on the street was a bad idea. And so is getting rid of a policing tool with no replacement ready. Lawmakers have done both without having a clue as to what the outcomes might be.
The overall crime and policing outcome data we do have, however, begs for Chicago to ditch its soft-on-crime approach. The city needs to arrest more, prosecute more and sentence more. And officials need to obsess more about the city’s victims.
Otherwise, some 30,000 Chicagoans yearly will continue to suffer the trauma of violent crimes – homicides, assaults, robberies, batteries. And Chicago will maintain its title as the country’s murder capital.
Here are several facts that should condemn Illinois and Chicago’s leadership for their failures on crime.
Fact 1. Chicago’s homicide decline is lagging the rest of the country. Jacksonville murders are down 48% this year. Philadelphia, down 43%. New Orleans, down 40%. Cleveland and Baltimore, down more than 30%. Milwaukee, Detroit and Oakland, by more than 20%.
In contrast, Chicago’s 9% decline in murders YTD is one of the smallest among big cities. The overall decline among cities with populations greater than 250,000 is 18%, according to AH Datalytics.
Would Chicago’s murder decline have been much larger if the SAFE-T Act had never been passed? If more criminals had been behind bars? You have to wonder.
Fact 2. The number of violent crime victims was running at a six-year high through August. Contrary to what officials say, violent crime hasn’t gotten any better in Chicago. As of mid-August, violent crime victimizations were running at a six-year high.*
More criminals out on the street has coincided with more victims of violent crime.
Fact 3. Chicago is on track to lead the nation in homicides for the 13th-straight year. That fact alone should be a colossal embarrassment to Chicago’s leadership.
More felons on the streets and less ways to track gunshot victims will help guarantee Chicago keeps its title as homicide capital indefinitely.
Fact 4. Chicago’s murder rate is 5 times the rate of New York City’s and nearly 3 times Los Angeles’. New York has three times the population of Chicago and yet it had 200 fewer murders last year. Chicago’s murder rate was 23.3 for every 100,000 in population, while New York’s was just 4.7 per 100,000.
How can it be a good idea to put more criminals on the street and eliminate a program that helps detect shootings when the city’s homicide rate is running so much higher than its two big peers?
Fact 5. Major crimes in 2024 are still running at 40% above 2019 levels. Of the seven reported major crime categories, only burglary is down compared to five years ago.
Fact 6. Blacks and Hispanics are 95% of all homicide victims. And they’re 80% of all violent crime victims. If equity and social justice were what policy makers Mayor Johnson, Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx, and Cook County Judge Tim Evans really cared about, they’d dedicate much more time to the victim side of the crime equation.
Fact 7. More than half of 911 calls have no police available for immediate response.
Chicago’s 911 problems are extreme. They capture the essence of what happens when police morale is destroyed, when police actions are heavily restricted, and when city leadership is dysfunctional.
If a Chicagoan makes a high-priority call to 911, there’s only a 50/50 chance of an immediate police response.
Fact 8. The arrest rate for major crimes in Chicago is just 5%. Same as fact 7, this reveals a problem with police morale, procedures and leadership.
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The big takeaway is that criminals are virtually free to commit crimes, and even if they do get caught, they have a pretty good chance of never facing justice. And victims no longer trust the criminal justice to protect them. Low arrest rates and low response rates mean many crimes now go unreported.
The broken nature of Chicago’s criminal justice system makes getting rid of ShotSpotter a mistake. And it makes releasing more alleged felons – and ex-felons – a mistake.
In a well functioning city with competent leadership, Chicago’s ongoing violence and crime would be met with tougher-on-crime policies and more support for the police. But here in Chicago, it’s the opposite.
*By the end of July, Chicago was well on its way to setting a six-year high for violent crime this year, with murders, sexual assaults, robberies and aggravated batteries running 2% higher than last year. But a big, unexplained 34% drop in robberies in August – coinciding with the Democratic National Convention – altered the trend. Overall violent crimes are now running 2% lower than they were last year.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- Chicago crime still up 40% over 2019 as Johnson implements police hiring freeze
- It’s not racist to call Chicago the nation’s murder capital. The Chicago Sun-Times has 617 reasons to call it that.
- The DNC is coming to Chicago, the nation’s homicide capital 13 years running – A Wirepoints survey of America’s 75 largest cities
- If you’re shot, robbed or assaulted in Chicago, there’s a 50/50 chance there’ll be no police to respond to your 911 call
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
Expect no retraction or apology. This what they do.
This article hits on all cylinders! The only points I would add is that the crime rate would be higher except that Chicago’s reporting to the FBI is questionable at best and downright fraudulent at worst, and, as you stated, reported crime is down by a remarkable amount, so the crime rate is waaay below what it otherwise would be. The minority community had better wake up much faster – crime is affecting them more than anyone else. Thank you Wirepoints for keeping watch!!!!! Somebody has to!!!!!
https://www.lakemchenryscanner.com/2024/09/24/man-driving-vehicle-wanted-in-shootings-allegedly-runs-away-kicks-officer-in-face-in-gurnee/
“During a First Appearance Court hearing, Lake County Judge Michael Nerheim informed Lewis that the charges against him were non-detainable under the state’s cashless bail law and that he was unable to detain him.”
Does it really matter how many reasons there are? None of it matters because Mayor dip$hit wants it gone. His homies don’t like it cause it racist. Oops there’s that word that causes all you slaves and simps to run and hide under a bed.
Wouldn’t that word get the slaves and simps up in arms? You don’t make a damn bit of sense.
How crime is measured and methodology used has become highly politicized.
This WSJ article from a day ago, says crime is way up in big cities if you look at NCVS (National Crime Victimization Survey by Bureau of Justice Statistics) vrs FBI which is what media and left like to quote. With FBI changing their methodology on 2021 and other issues.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/contrary-to-media-myth-u-s-urban-crime-rates-are-up-violence-cities-9ce714f6?st=sszDQJ&reflink=article_email_share
Also, in this very good Cook County Record article, outgoing CC Circuit Clerk, Iris Martinez claims that according to her methodology defendants showing up for court appearances has been a disaster under Safe-T Act.
( https://cookcountyrecord.com/stories/664431039-cook-courts-clerk-casts-doubts-on-official-numbers-touting-success-of-il-criminal-justice-reforms)