By: Mark Glennon and John Klingner
Deputy Illinois Governor Andy Manar said this last week:
We haven’t had population loss. There have never been more people living in the State of Illinois than there is today. In the census there’s a thing called the post enumeration survey (PES) that shows that Illinois gained population. It’s a correction. and it’s a real correction from the Census Bureau…. Illinois is not losing people, it is gaining people.
It’s a claim Gov. JB Pritzker and his allies have made before.
It’s preposterous.
Manar has no basis for his claims and overwhelming evidence says, instead, that Illinois has lost population year after year, probably a decade. Making matters worse, Manar’s claim was blindly accepted by Better Government Association President David Greising who moderated the panel where Manar made the claim.
Here are the facts:
For starters, the ten-year census on which Manar relied is four years old now. Not only does he ignore what’s happened since April 1, 2020, the census effective date, but his claim of “never been more people living in the State of Illinois” isn’t true either. The decennial census showed a small loss of 18,124 people over the decade, but the flight problem did not become apparent until about 2014. That’s when annual census estimates, as well as other evidence, began to show the downturn, continuing every year thereafter. Illinois population therefore probably peaked about then, not now as Manar claims.
Further, April 2020 is about when violent crime skyrocketed, including the 2020 riots in Chicago that summer, which one can reasonably assume contributed to flight from the state. Direct evidence of what has happened since April 2020 indicates accelerating flight. For that, we can start with the Census Bureau’s annual estimates, which show further decline each year since 2020. We lost a net 100,016 people in 2021, and another 107,826 in 2022 and a further loss of 32,826 people in 2023.
As for the Post Enumerations Survey (PES) Manar focused on, no, it does not officially alter the results of the 2020 decennial census, which showed the small 18,124 loss. The PES is a survey conducted after every census to attempt to identify potential errors. It’s based on answers from just 0.1% of American households, which the census says is too small to make any official changes with.
Finally, the Census Bureau recently announced it would do a one-time adjustment of Illinois’ population based on an undercount identified by the Post-Census Group Quarters Review (PCGQR). The change adds 46,400 Illinoisans, which the census says it will use to adjust future, annual estimates. That tiny adjustment hardly dents the far bigger losses since 2020.
Beyond Census Bureau numbers, we can look at IRS migration data. The IRS numbers are precise because they know exactly how many people file returns and where they are moving to and from. We’ve documented those numbers year after year. For 2022, the most recent year reported by the IRS, Illinois netted a loss of 87,000 residents, with 175,000 moving into Illinois from other states and 262,000 moving out. Since 2000, Illinois has lost a net 1.6 million people to net out-migration, according to the IRS data.
How about moving van numbers? Headlines have been routine for years about numbers from moving companies showing Illinois among the nation’s biggest losers. The most recent annual study from United Van Lines, for example, says Illinois had the highest percentage of moves being outbound: 61%.
When Manar made his population claims, Greising’s response was “Oh, okay, sorry…. Okay, Okay.” Shame on Greising. The facts laid out above have been long published by many sources and it’s inexcusable for him to kowtow to conflicting government propaganda, which he is supposed to be challenging.
As for Manar, it’s not the first time we’ve called out his dishonesty. See our earlier column here about his claims regarding Illinois’ borrowing to shore up its unemployment trust fund.
To date, no media has reported on any challenge to Manar’s claims, other than Center Square.
It’s important to remember that census bureau numbers, including those that Manar referred to, include illegal aliens, and there are over 600,000 in Illinois. You many recall the the Pritzker Administration made a strong effort to assure they were counted in the last census.
It’s a never-ending story. They lie and lie again. They succeed because the media and many of our supposed watchdogs let them.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- Another annual Census migration report, another 93,000 net loss of Illinoisans to other states
- Illinois’ rich, young residents join the exodus to other states
- Illinois’ Gov. Pritzker delivers Democrats’ national economic pitch at DNC. A look at his own record is revealing
- Illinois drives out residents of every age and income group
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
The County Resident numbers published by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank also show a population loss.
Then how does he explain our consistent loss of congressional seats?
Other states grew faster than Illinois so they get the spoils of more house seats.
I agree. Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania also lost house seats. People are less likely to move to the rust belt than the west coast, the south, or southwest.
Please don’t say ‘Whoppers’ around JB the Hutt. He’ll start shouting, “Ten! Ten! Ten!”
Lord, I apologize…be with the starving Pygmies of New Guinea. Amen.
The Post Enumeration Survey is not a correction.
It is fiction.
Can someone explain to me why getting the local communists to admit they benefit when their opposition gives up and moves out is important?
The ongoing refusal to acknowledge what everyone else knows and accepts as the truth is a sign of mental illness. That’s your Governor.
And an ex-president.
David Greising Is an establishment tool based on his Tribune Op Ed history. His lack of pushback is completely expected.
The entire JB administration are liars! They couldn’t tell the truth if it slapped them in the face!! Pitiful people!
Their job is not to tell the truth rather it’s to promote a storyline that positions their progressive governance to undermine the remaining Illinois taxpayers so they won’t notice until it’s too late.
Get out while you can! I’m sure An exit tax is making it’s way to your mailbox after the elections.
I apologize for the visual…
The Governor/Emperor has no clothes…
I moved away in the last year. Have you noticed that nobody you do business with ever lets you leave without asking how they did, and begging for an online review? Why didn’t Illinois and Chicago send me a request to give them a review? Google reviews, Yelp? Surely JB has a couple hundred idle staffers who could track this. Or CPS could have homerooms full of kids staffing pestering phone banks (nah, that would teach a skill). Guess how many stars I’d give….
You are mistaken. JB says you have not left Illinois. You only think you did. You are imagining it. You are not gone unless they say you are. This is where Illinois has come. Fantasyland.
The outmigration from CA is more stark than IL as reported in Epoch Times, and once again the raw numbers were only moderated by a massive number of noncitizen illegals being counted. The trends are pretty clear – Leftist Democrats policies to enact their radical progressive agenda are driving citizens out of IL, and Democrats are using illegals to fill the population gap. The malfeasance and resulting destruction is epic – nothing like this has ever been done in America before.
He’s correct, Illinois isn’t losing people, just losing people who have money and pay taxes.
Illinois is not only losing taxpayers but the state is also losing honest, hardworking people who pay their bills. Mayor Johnson, who makes six figures, doesn’t bother to pay utility bills, traffic fines, and credit card bills so why should anyone else pay their bills? The Dems will make sure deadbeat tenants and squatters work the system so that they never have to pay rent or property damage bills. Dems will make sure student loans don’t have to be paid. The far left will make sure that there are no consequences for shoplifters and thieves. The far left will make… Read more »
In progressive speak, replacing US citizens with illegals is moving on the right direction.
See!!! JB says it so it cant be wrong. Carnival Barkers!!!!