By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
The multi-year pattern of population growth among the nation’s big red states – and shrinkage among the big blue – continued in 2023.
The deep-red states of Texas and Florida grew their populations by more than 470,000 and 365,000 respectively while red North Carolina grew by nearly 140,000. In all, the three grew by nearly 1 million people. These states remain a magnet for both Americans and foreigners alike.
Meanwhile, deep-blue New York, California and Illinois, are only driving more Americans away. New York and California, lost 102,000 and 75,000 people respectively while Illinois lost another 32,000. The combined loss totaled more than 210,000.
These findings are based on a Wirepoints’ analysis of the latest 2023 population estimates provided by the U.S. Census Bureau on December 22. The bureau performs a population estimate each year in addition to its full decennial census count at the end of each decade.
A look at percentage growth/decline
The nation’s winners and losers on a percentage basis are similar to those listed above. New York was the biggest loser, with more than 0.5 percent of its population disappearing between 2022 and 2023. Louisiana and Hawaii were next with declines of about 0.3 percent. Illinois, West Virginia, and California followed.
On the flip side, South Carolina, Florida and Texas all experienced population gains above 1.5 percent, with South Carolina’s 1.71 percent increase being the nation’s big winner.
The three-year trend
The divide between the nation’s winners and losers is even more pronounced when adding up changes over the post-decennial 2020-2023 period.
Both Texas and Florida have added more than one million in population – no other states come close. They’re near the top on a percentage basis too. Idaho’s population has grown 6.2 percent since 2020, followed by Florida and South Carolina up 4.7 percent and Texas at 4.3 percent.
In contrast, both California and New York have each seen their populations shrink by over 500,000 and Illinois has lost nearly a quarter-million people – the nation’s third-worst decline.
On a percentage basis, Illinois’ 1.9 percent loss comes only 2nd behind New York, which has lost 2.7 percent of its population since 2000.
The single biggest driver of population changes among the 50 states continues to be domestic migration – the movement of Americans from one state to another.
Florida was the nation’s top destination state between 2020 and 2023, with a net 757,000 people deciding to make the Sunshine State their home. Texas was next, with a net migration of nearly 603,000 Americans.
California suffered the most in the country with more than 1.1 million net people deciding to leave. New York and Illinois were the runners-up, with losses of nearly 810,000 and 342,000 people, respectively.
Another round of winners and losers
2023 was a year of “returning to norms” after years of pandemic chaos, according to the Census Bureau.
Those norms are clear: Deep-red Texas and Florida, along with states like the Carolinas, are winning the competition for people and their wealth. And they have been for more than a decade.
In contrast, blue states like New York, California and Illinois are structural losers – bleeding domestic migrants and seeing their populations shrink.
One set of states is rapidly garnering increased advantages in both economic investment and political influence. The other set is losing, badly.
Appendix.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- New 2023 Census estimate: Illinois’ population drops again, losses now total a quarter-million since 2020
- ‘Illinois is growing,’ claims yet another group of political elites. It’s not true.
- It’s not just people. Illinois suffered the nation’s 3rd-worst loss of businesses in 2021.
- New Census data: Illinoisans continue to flee, but not only to Florida. Many are moving just over the border
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
This is a good piece of work. Very informative but not surprising. Violent crime, no cash bail, open borders, high taxes coupled with three years of inflation and a jump in interest rates are driving the departures from Blue States.
There are about 5 deep blue counties and 4 or 5 more medium blue. Much/most of the state counties are deep red or close to that. Unfortunately a county like Piatt in central Illinois has a total of almost 17K population while one ward in Chicago has 3x that. The voters in Chicago and Cook County are too dumb to see how democrats are destroying the city, the county, the state and the nation.
When da mayor gets on tv why does he always look like zippie the ph.
Oh I forgot his degree is in nuclear physics.
Bet he has the commie manifesto on his night
Stand with picture of comrade Putin smiling
At him.
To me he looks like a deer in the headlights; frozen in panic.
Then he speaks in tongues, aka word salad. Perhaps Ms. Harris is his speech coach.
Why is this such a prominent topic? It’s every other post here.
Leaving Illinois shouldn’t be a prominent topic? What topics would you like to see covered? Maybe some articles on esprit de corps? 🤣🤣 Morale and team building activities? …As the U-hauls drive away you are cheering on the side of the road for everyone to come back before it’s too late. It is too late and now the momentum that’s building in the negative direction is gaining steam. It’s not like these “progressives” learn from mistakes. That’s precisely why they won’t course correct. To do so would mean they have to admit they are wrong. You think that’s going to… Read more »
100% correct. JB is incapable of admitting an error. Haven’t seen him do it yet.
My son is 26, single, wanted a house of his own, no college debt, two year degree in electronics. But he’s a wiz at computer application development, self taught, databases, programming, etc. Never had an ounce of trouble finding work, turns down work regularly. He qualified for up to a 300K home. But in Illinois that gets you a shack or a money pit you have to fix up, then pay through the nose on taxes. So he took up his cousin in Texas offer to start a life there. That was 4 weeks ago. In the first day down… Read more »
Glad your son has situated himself to prosper. If/When he produces some grandkids, maybe you will be more tempted to join him, especially since Illinois only figures to get worse. Perhaps one of your other kids will get fed up with Illinois and join your son. What I’ve noticed is it only takes one family member to lead the way, and the others eventually follow. Your son may not realize it yet, but he could end up being the hero of your family. Merry Christmas.
this study from a few days ago projects Illinois loosing 2 house seats by 2030. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/how-congressional-maps-could-change-2030
Has JB yet to call this more carnival barking?
It’s Trumps fault and yours for being a xenophobic racist.