By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
*This piece has been updated to include Illinois’ loss of tax filers and dependents over the 2010 – 2020 period. See the second claim/reality for more details.*
Wirepoints has highlighted for years how Illinois’ failed public policies are driving residents out of the state. All the evidence, from the U.S. Census Bureau to the IRS to United Van Lines to U-Haul to Allied Van Lines, shows Illinois losing far more residents to other states than it gains. We’ve also shown how Illinois births and legal international migration into Illinois have dropped steadily. Illinois consistently ranks at the bottom of most population/migration statistics.
Now, in the latest attempt by Illinois’ political class to dismiss all the above evidence and claim Illinois is growing, the Illinois Economic Policy Institute (IEPI) has released a new study on migration over the 2010-2020 period. From their press release:
Illinois is NOT suffering the mass exodus that some have claimed. To the contrary… Illinois’ population has been stable over the last decade — driven by growth in the Chicago metropolitan area—with the state as a whole becoming less rural, more educated, more foreign-born, more Hispanic, and higher-paid. Importantly, a decade of migration trends also reveals that substantially more Illinois workers are contributing to the state’s tax base and fewer are reliant on government assistance programs.
In other words, Illinois is doing just fine, they say.
But the institute’s optimistic assessment is wrong. The fact is Illinois was one of just three states in the country to shrink from 2010-2020 and the state’s population losses accelerated sharply in both 2021 and 2022. More importantly, IRS state-to-state migration data shows that Illinois is a net loser to other states in every income and age group. Young and old, rich and poor, everyone is leaving Illinois. And the people that remain are increasingly dependent on government programs.
No, Illinois is not better off. In fact, it continues to lag the country in most of the economic, fiscal and demographic measures that matter most.
Below are just a few of IEPI’s claims from their report and our response to them.*
IEPI Claim: Illinois is NOT suffering the mass exodus that some have claimed.
Reality: Illinois was one of just three states to shrink over the past decade, with the state’s population losses accelerating during the past two years.
The results of the 2020 Decennial Census have been disputed by Illinois’ political class since their release. The census count reported Illinois lost 18,000 in population over the decade, down to 12.81 million, but many politicians, like Gov. Pritzker, say the state actually grew to 13 million.
The IEPI report repeats that claim: “A post-Census review subsequently found that Illinois’ population was likely undercounted by 2%, meaning that the state actually had around 13 million residents in 2020.”
They can’t make that claim. Yes, there was a “post-census review” that found Illinois’ numbers could have been undercounted, as we reported here, but the review was based on a tiny sample and methodologically it was inappropriate to apply it to the census count, Census officials told Wirepoints.
Which is why the official 2020 Census Bureau data remains unchanged from its original findings. It continues to show a 2020 population of 12.81 million, down 18,000 from a population of 12.83 million in 2010.
That decline makes Illinois a national outlier. Illinois was one of only three states to shrink over the decade, joined by only West Virginia and Mississippi.
And Illinois’ population losses have accelerated in the years since then. The latest estimates from the Census Bureau show Illinois lost 230,000 people between 2020 and 2022, more than any other state except New York and California.
IEPI Claim: Illinois added 200,000 tax filers over the decade, growing its tax base.
Reality: Illinois’ growth in tax filers was the nation’s 4th-worst.
The IEPI report claims “Illinois added more than 200,000 taxpayers last decade, an increase of 4%” over the 2010 – 2020 period. Presumably, the institute means that’s a positive signal for Illinois.
IPEI is wrong to imply that an increase in tax filers means Illinois gained more people. The number of tax filers is volatile and can increase/decrease for a host of economic and tax reasons.
The more appropriate proxy for population is the change in tax filers plus their dependents. The IRS tax bracket data we analyzed shows that while the number of tax filers grew 4 percent between 2010 and 2020, the number of individuals counted in the filings (total exemptions) dropped by 7 percent, or nearly 850,000.
That decline is effectively the net loss of Illinoisans due to domestic out-migration over the period, of which we’ve written about here and here.**
In summary, the number of tax filers is not the proper measure. But since IEPI has brought them up, what they should have reported was how poorly Illinois is faring.
Illinois’ growth in tax filers is dismal when you compare it to the rest of the country – the nation’s 4th-worst. Only Wyoming, Mississippi and Alaska had smaller growth in tax filers between 2010 and 2020.
In contrast, all of our neighbors experienced a growth in tax filers that was double or more that of Illinois. And states like Texas and Utah saw their tax filers grow more than 25 percent.
Like with most other tax/migration statistics, Illinois is at the bottom of the barrel.
IEPI Claim: The number of high-income taxpayers has grown, making Illinois more wealthy.
Reality: Illinois’ growth in high-income tax filers was nation’s 8th-worst
Similar to the claim above, the IEPI report also says: “Taxpayers with adjusted gross incomes above $100,000 per year grew by more than 50% over the decade, including an increase of 80% among those earning more than $500,000 annually.” Presumably, the Institute means that the state is growing more wealthy over time.
First of all, their statement ignores the reality of “bracket creep.” This phenomenon happens everywhere.
Second, just like with the previous claim, Illinois’ tax filer growth is dismal when you compare it to the rest of the country. Illinois suffered the 8th-worst growth among the 50 states between 2010 and 2020, growing just 54%.
Contrast that to neighboring Wisconsin where $100K-plus filers have grown 82 percent. Or Florida, where they’ve grown 100 percent.
The result is the same for incomes above $500K – Illinois suffered the 8th-worst growth.
The result? Illinois is losing ground on “wealthy taxpayers” relative to the rest of the nation. In 2010, Illinois had the 6th-highest share of $500K-plus filers relative to total state tax filers. By 2020, Illinois’ rank had fallen to 10th-highest.
Claim: High-income earners are moving to Illinois, not leaving it.
Reality: Far more high-income earners flee the state than move in.
The IEPI report claims its “data does not support the narrative that high-income earners are fleeing the state. If anything, it shows the opposite to be the case.”
Wirepoints already debunked that fact in “No, it’s not just retirees leaving Illinois. Residents in every age and income group are fleeing.”
The IRS migration data shows that everyone – young and old, rich and poor – left Illinois on a net basis between 2011 and 2020.
Importantly, Illinois is losing its mobile young and wealthy cohorts more than most other groups. The state’s prime-working-years age bracket of 26 to 35 lost nearly 110,000 net tax filers over the decade and the higher-income-class bracket of $100K to $200K lost nearly 85,000 net filers.
The Appendix includes charts with the in- and out-migration of tax filers by age and income between 2011 and 2020. In every year and in every bracket, far more tax filers left the state than moved in.
Claim: Fewer Illinoisans are reliant on government assistance programs.
Reality: More Illinoisans are more dependent on government than ever.
The IEPI report says that the number of filers claiming Earned Income Tax Credit (EIC) decreased 11% over the decade – which led the report’s press release to declare that fewer Illinoisans “are reliant on government assistance programs.”
But that ignores the steady expansion in government dependency that’s occurred in Illinois over the past 20-plus years – particularly with Medicaid and food stamps.
Medicaid dependence today has jumped to 3.8 million enrollees from 1.4 million in 2000. The increasing trend was intact between 2010 and 2015, but enrollment fell during the Trump-economy years.
Most recently, 2021-2023 had a new explosion of enrollment – to record levels. Total enrollment is expected to fall as pandemic-era Medicaid rules end, but so far the reduction has been less than anticipated.
Illinoisans’ enrollment in food stamps has followed a similar pattern. The number of residents dependent on SNAP has grown more than 2.4 times since the turn of the millennium – to where almost 16 percent of Illinois’ entire population is enrolled.
*The IEPI used Illinois Department of Revenue tax data and the Census Bureau’s “Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement Survey” to create its report. Wirepoints’ facts are derived from the Census Bureau’s decennial census, national IRS income tax bracket data and IRS state-to-state migration data. Using the IRS data allowed Wirepoints to compare Illinois’ tax statistics to other states.
** The IRS numbers help explain Illinois’ 18,000 population loss over the 2010-2020 period. IRS migration data shows Illinois lost about 900,000 net tax filers and dependents to domestic out-migration. That loss wiped out the state’s growth from net natural increase and international migration, canceling out any net population growth the state could have had during the period.
Appendix.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- It’s not just people. Illinois suffered the nation’s 3rd-worst loss of businesses in 2021
- No, it’s not just retirees leaving Illinois. Residents in every age and income group are fleeing.
- State of denial: Gov. Pritzker says IRS migration data isn’t ‘migration data’
- New IRS migration data: New York, California, Illinois are the nation’s big losers of people and their wealth, Florida, Texas the big winners – A Wirepoints 50-state survey
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
I would trust a U-haul or United Van Lines spreadsheet more than I would any local media or “journalism” as it’s simply political propaganda. I don’t think that all the writers are this way. I would say a fair amount are leftist. The ones with an independent mind are threatened and bullied with termination or shaming. They go along because they need a paycheck. The other side operates with impunity. They use Threats, Shaming, Blackmail, Intimidation, Fear, Damage to Property or Person, and Victimhood. They are allowed to break the law and if we respond in kind we are arrested… Read more »
As far as people with possessions to move, what does U-Haul report? I’d trust their numbers over any organization with a motive.
I’ll trust the actual tax revenue that the state collects and not worry about who is more accurate on population estimates. Actual tax revenue continues to climb.
“I trust everything the government tells me”
And if youze dares to questionz de experts in govment youze peasants youze then youze is jus a MAGA Republican!! Die die die!!
PPF only cares about stealing from his neighbors and kicking them into poverty. He’s a greedy narcissist and has a special place in hell awaiting him.
Pensioners are owed money. You are the one trying to steal from retirees. Pay your bills deadbeat.
Criminals are not entitled to their stolen money. Period. Its an indisputable fact that he Public unions and corrupt politician votes-in-exchange-for-absurd-pensions scam is flat out an evil crime. Everyone in Illinois except for the criminal co conspirators knows what’s up and will not tolerate it. Get ready for the haircut. Prisoners get shaved heads I think.
Here we have more blah, blah, blah that never ends from Nutso Clarence Darrow.
Negotiating ones pay is not criminal. Period. It’s indisputable that public unions have the right to collectively bargain for their wages and benefits. The majority of the voters agreed with this basic fact so much that they decided to enshrine it into the constitution. Theft of pensions will not be tolerated. Get ready for more taxes and less services TPG.
The “basic fact” is that there is a difference between UAW negotiating their pay and public unions “negotiating” their pay. It is not a negotiation when the unions are represented on both sides of the bargaining table. And the UAW cannot compel every person in the state of Michigan to pay for their demands, without end. UAW can only bankrupt the auto industry, not an entire state.
The law and constitution doesn’t align to your own made up rules for public vs private employers. The people of Illinois disagreed with your beliefs and have enshrined collective bargaining into our great constitution for public employees. That is a basic fact. The people have spoken.
Again with the legalisms. Ask the Venezuelans sleeping on police station floors how well the worker’s paradise Venezuelan voters approved has worked out for them.
Those darn legalisms that protect gun owners from the gun grabbers, protect pensioners from having their retirement stolen and protects the right to freely assemble including protecting the rights to collectively bargain. If we could just get rid of all these legalisms you would finally be able to steal from others. That darn constitution not allowing your desired tyranny. Oh, the humanity.
The ILEPI study, like all their studies, either lacks context or cherry picks what context to give. That’s usually the first sign something is amiss.
That said, one of the bigger takeaways from their study was that residents leaving the state were more likely to be Black. So what we have is a bunch of unionistas and government acolytes patting each other on the back for attracting wealthier people while ridding the state of those poor Black people dragging everyone else down. I don’t understand how they can read this report and be proud of it.
I’m confused what’s IEPI connection to Univ of Illinois? I see Robert Bruno who’s big wig at U of I is on board of directors. Seems IEPI gets away with claiming there studies are legit by including U of I research or professors. Otherwise all their other board of director members are union/labor friendly players (https://illinoisepi.org/board-of-directors/)
Seems I also get IEPI confused with IGPA and Beverly Bunch at U of I.
Be prepared to be inundated with acronyms… ILEPI is to trade unions as CTBA is to public sector unions. Their primary funding source is the Operating Engineers Local 150 but it gets money from many different trades. UIUC has a school called Labor and Employment Relations (LER). Within LER is the Project for Middle Class Renewal which is nothing more than pro-labor research. That program receives funding from various labor unions that is funneled through the UofI Foundation (legally separate from UIUC). Much of this is traceable through USDOL filings. LER and ILEPI collaborate under this program. They’re basically joined at… Read more »
Fantastic!!!, thanks for the education. And for our crappy local press (st, trib, crains, etc) ILEPI or CTBA are acceptable/creditable sources or research while anything from WP or IPI is suspect and offen labeled ‘right leaning’ if sourced at all in local press. But then WP and IPI are rocken it in nation press (wsj, wp, etc)…..for the very few of use that read the news
But there’s no ethical/legal conflicts to have political organizations, LER or ILEPI, use taxpayer funded resources at U of I to prepare and/or legitimize their partisan research as long as your playing on the right team in dem machine Illinois.
Many universities have similar labor-friendly schools. I wouldn’t call it unethical. But there’s definitely an internal bias and blind spots in their research. Have you ever seen them produce a report that put labor in a bad light? Have they ever produced research promoting lower taxes?
ILEPI is to trade unions as CTBA is to public sector unions. Their primary funding source is the Operating Engineers Local 150 but it gets money from many different trades.
UIUC has a school called Labor and Employment Relations (LER). Within LER is the Project for Middle Class Renewal which is nothing more than pro-labor research. That program receives funding from various labor unions that is funneled through the UofI Foundation (legally separate from UIUC). Much of this is traceable through USDOL filings.
LER and ILEPI collaborate under this program. They’re basically joined at the hip.
Thanks WP for responding to this report. When I saw it I thought I should write about it but that seemed like too much work. HOWEVER, Chicagoland has long been a place where poor people come for opportunity, then prosper and move away. Many of those moving here have been immigrants, some with proper documentation and some otherwise. The relative amounts of immigration and emigration have changed, and we readers of Wirepoints have a pretty good idea of why.
When people move out of this state they sell their home which means someone is buying your property. Those who move out may be younger seniors who have no dependents living with them and some younger family buys their home because their family is growing. So one or two may leave but are replaced with three or four family members so a net increase. The reason is that the young family moved out of an apartment needing more space due to a growing family. There are very few empty homes available here in Rockford and even fewer are being built.… Read more »
The “Great Replacement” you say.
As for the Elites:” “They lie to us, we know they’re lying, they know we know they’re lying, but they keep lying to us, and we keep pretending to believe them.”
Yet they didn’t lie. Illinois did in fact grow as they stated. Just not as fast relative to other states. The above article confirms that it did grow.
LOL WP addresses the word ‘grow’ in the various contexts the IEPI uses the word, and debunks the use of their word ‘grow’. You’re just as bad as the IEPI. Maybe you got a dog in this hunt? You seem really upset.
Not upset at all. I’m one of the few reading this articles and what it really stated. The original article made the claim that the state grew in terms of taxpayers and this article also claims that Illinois grew but was the 4th slowest growing state. That means it’s still growing.
I have no dog in this hunt. Whether the population increases, is stagnant or declines, the state of Illinois will pay pensions first. People here read these articles and interpret it as if EvErYoNe is leaving when it’s simply not true. Facts matter.
You’re confusing their points about growth in tax filers with growth in population. They aren’t the same. IPEI claimed that “Illinois is growing” when it repeated the same false point Gov. Pritzker has in the past: that the post-census review means the state’s population likely grew to 13 million. That’s simply not true, and that’s why we called their claim “bunk.” The growth in tax filers is a separate issue. IPEI basically implies that an increase in tax filers means Illinois gained in population. That’s also wrong. The number of tax filers is volatile and can increase/decrease for a host… Read more »
Illinois, meaning Chicago in particular, is growing by the busload of “recently-arriving migrants”. Unfortunately the newcomers are drain on government finances, not revenue source for any government agency, to sole financial advantage of new “migrant-management” businesses whose contract awards remain mostly undisclosed by BJ administration.
We’ll probably have 100,000 “recently-arrived migrants” by end of 2024, to somewhat replenish significant annual population loss due to fed-up former taxpaying Chicagoans sick of the blight, the crime, and the substantial welfare state that comprises Chicago reality.
“The IEPI report claims “Illinois added more than 200,000 taxpayers last decade, an increase of 4%” over the 2010 – 2020 period. Presumably, the institute means that’s a positive signal for Illinois.But Illinois’ tax filer growth is dismal when you compare it to the rest of the country – the nation’s 4th-worst. Only Wyoming, Mississippi and Alaska had a smaller growth in tax filers between 2010 and 2020.”“The result? Illinois is losing ground on “wealthy taxpayers” relative to the rest of the nation.”“Illinois’ tax filer growth is dismal when you compare it to the rest of the country. Illinois suffered the 8th-worst growth… Read more »
And we should be satisfied with this? Look at Illinois’ immediate company regarding tax filer growth – AK, MS, WY, WV and LA. None are neighboring, competing states like WI and IN. None are in the top 10 for population like NY, CA, TX, FL and IL. According to 2022 estimates, WY’s population is <5% of IL, AK’s <6%, WV’s <15%, MS’s <25%, LA’s <37%. Hardly comparable. The state is being fundamentally and comprehensively mismanaged, but not really, because it’s “growing” according to IEPI and you. Pritzker wants IL to be an EV/high tech hub, so here’s a draft of… Read more »
We shouldn’t be satisfied with this one bit. Illinois needs to improve it’s decision making starting with getting control of crime in the city of Chicago as well getting control of any additional spending.
With that said, Illinois did grow in terms of tax filers according the IEPA and now Wirepoints. They called is “dismal” but they didn’t dispute the growth. Not sure why the headline calls it “bunk”.
The complete tax data (filers plus dependents) does show that Illinois lost people. We’ve updated our piece to reflect that.
John, The original article countered the population decline based on the actual census difference between 2010 and 2020 and then tried to make the claim that it actually increased based on a census bureau review it actually increased to around 13 million. I don’t remember walking away from that article thinking that the population increased because there was an increase in filers. As you’ve pointed out, they don’t always correlate. With that said, this site has made the claim that with a smaller population, Illinois tax revenues will massively decline. Clearly with the growth of tax filers and tax revenue… Read more »
People that already lived here became first time tax filers. It’s not that hard to figure out.
Agreed. Some of those new filers could also be yesterday’s dependents. More tax revenue and more filers is more important to determine the states ability to pay its bills than a population of dependents. You could argue that fewer dependents will impact future tax filers down the road but you might have a bunch of new tax filers that are born here after the influx of migrants. Time will tell.
Fat Fredo and the rest of the Democrats in Illinois don’t care about anything besides Chicago and the collar counties. The rest of the state consists of rubes that are there just to pay taxes to pay for the graft the Democrats are committing. When you look at the census and it shows the Chicagoland area up in residents, that’s all the Democrats need because those are Democrat votes, and Democrat votes are uninformed votes. The fact that all the other counties in the state are down is immaterial to Democrats. Those were Republican votes that left, so they don’t… Read more »
Now now now…you are forgetting that just the other day they were saying downstate needs to help with the immigrants.
Who funds IEPI? Let me guess, Rich Miller & the Pritzkers?
I couldn’t find anything on their web site about who funds them, tho your guess is plausible. Take a look at their board of directors.
Trade unions. I have a more detailed post above that explains it but is stuck in “awaiting for approval” for some reason.
As long as I get my pension check next week, I don’t care what happens. Pay up, chumbolones!
Pension checks don’t go out next week so you will get nothing and like it.
Of course the data differs from the IRS data because simply the new arrivals don’t pay taxes.
Any many of those leaving don’t pay taxes either, primarily children with their parents, unemployed looking for work elsewhere, and retirees who don’t need to file because they live off savings.
Big money and high-income earners are fleeing in the thousands every year. The new college educated are leaving in huge numbers. Illinois is in a downward spiral in terms of economics and brain power.
Well if you factor in bus loads of illegals then you could say Illinois is growing — just not in a good way.
BO would call this growth “fundamental transformation.”
Bottom of the barrel in almost all key metrics. Why?
….and if you call any of this out, you are called a r#c#st. Why?
They conveniently don’t mention the Pritzker funded efforts in 2020 to count every man, woman, child and pet dog in the 2020 census. You couldn’t turn on the television or radio without being bombarded by Pritzker imploring anyone with a pulse to make sure they were counted. This makes any comparison to 2010 irrelevant, as JB didn’t throw Daddy’s money at that census. We rate the IEPI report as entirely false.
But that’s the rub: they DID count everyone in the 2020 census (probably a lot of double counts too) and yet, we still lost population.
That’s a good point. If the counting method was enhanced, then you’re comparing apples and oranges. You would have to apply that same methodology to 2010 which cannot be done.