Don’t fall for Pritzker administration’s misleading comments on Illinois’ population losses – Wirepoints

By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner

A recent tweet by Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s press secretary shows the administration either doesn’t understand the state’s out-migration problem or it’s deliberately attempting to mislead Illinoisans. Jordan Abudayyeh’s dismissive response to a Fox 32 tweet tries to shoot down the argument that Illinois has a people-loss problem.

At the core of her response was the recent 2020 U.S. Census Bureau release that showed Illinois’ population dropped by 18,000 people between 2010 and 2020, far lower than the 250,000 drop the Census had previously estimated. 

“Story over, nothing to talk about. No problems to see here,” her tweet effectively says. 

In this tweet and elsewhere, the administration has treated the “improved” 2020 census numbers as a big win, never mind that Illinois was one of just three states in the entire nation to shrink in population (see Appendix for detail). Only in Illinois could such a loss be spun as a victory.

But Pritzker and his officials are wrong to celebrate. Illinois does have a serious people-loss problem, as Wirepoints recently revealed and Fox 32 subsequently covered

Recent IRS data shows that Illinois lost approximately 760,000 net people to other states between 2010 and 2020 – enough to entirely wipe out all the state’s gains from net births and international immigration

Below, we broadly lay out the changes in demographics that impact Illinois’ population – net natural increase, net international migration, and net domestic migration – and we examine why Illinois ended up with a population loss over the 2010-2020 period. 

In an attempt to square up Illinois’ demographic changes with the final results of the 2020 decennial Census, Wirepoints used Census survey data as well as the more concrete IRS state migration data.

1. Births minus deaths. Illinois’ net natural increase, which is equal to births minus deaths, has a major influence on the state’s population. Over the past decade, Census data shows Illinois’ net natural increase averaged about 46,500 people annually. 

Everything else equal, then, the state’s natural increase added about 465,000 to the state’s population over the last ten years. 

2. Net international migration. On average, Census data shows the state has added about 24,500 residents annually via international immigration. Again, everything else equal, that added 245,000 to the state’s population over the last decade.  

3. Net domestic outmigration of residents to other states. State-by-state migration data from the IRS, a separate set of hard data based on actual tax returns, shows Illinois lost an average of 76,000 net people (tax filers and their dependents) each year between 2011 and 2020. That’s a net loss of 760,000 people over the last decade.

Those out-migration losses wiped out the state’s growth from net natural increase and international migration, canceling out any net population growth the state could have had.

Wirepoints’ estimate of population changes over the decade shows a total net loss of 52,000 people, which is broadly similar to the final results of the 2020 decennial Census.

Illinois’ losses are real

Illinois’ population would have grown by hundreds of thousands of people over the decade if the state had simply broken even with other states in the competition for residents.

But Illinois didn’t break even. On the contrary, Illinois is a perennial loser of people to other states. In 2019 alone, Illinois was the third-biggest loser, both in the number of total people lost and as a share of population. A recent WSJ opinion piece, titled The State of Outmigration, captured Wirepoints research of the IRS data in detail.

That Illinois has lost hundreds of thousands of people to other states is not a “narrative” – it’s a fact backed up by actual tax returns.

Illinoisans would be far better served if Pritzker and others addressed the issues that make residents leave – the state’s high taxes, its worst-in-nation pension crisis, its broken finances, its unattractive business environment and its pervasive political corruption – instead of denying the fact that there’s a problem in the first place.

Illinois needs fundamental changes if it’s to change the path it’s on. After all, no state has ever shrunk its way to prosperity – it can only manage a slow and sad decline.

Read more about Illinois’ out-migration problem

Appendix

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WorstStateEver
2 years ago

There is no question the shills of Illinois and our corrupt government are out in force on this one…. In my little 6 unit building, in the last 4 years, 3 of the families/folks moved out of state…. All were in the demographic of people you would expect to stay in place for a while…

JB will lie – he has no choice – any other course of action would require a simple analysis which would show that liberal policies and corruption are a recipe for change…. Yep, EXODUS.

T. Sands
2 years ago

My wife and I just sold our house and we will be moving out of Illinois in 30 days. Best feeling I have had in many years. This State is lost.

Thee Jabroni
2 years ago
Reply to  T. Sands

congrats!!-dont blame you

LessonLearned
2 years ago
Reply to  T. Sands

You fought back. Well done. Hope you and your family enjoy your new freedom.

M.H. D.
2 years ago

The IL residents leaving can afford to take their tax dollars with them while the “International Migrators” influx will only be a greater drain on whatever resources are left. Any overpaid hack who opines otherwise is a fool.

Bob Hummel
2 years ago

The election is fast approaching and this denial strategy serves JB well in his hopes that Illinoisan’s naivety will continue to be predominant in the majority of voters.

For those who can from one who did, run away from this State as fast as you can. Your personal finances will be much better for it.

nixit
2 years ago

According to the US Census Bureau, the percentage of Illinois’ population over the age of 65 was 12.6% in 2010 versus 16.1% in 2019. Remember, Illinois doesn’t tax retirement income. So not only is Illinois’ population shrinking, its taxable population (from a state perspective) is shrinking at a faster rate.

Last edited 2 years ago by nixit
LessonLearned
2 years ago
Reply to  nixit

Good point. So the question Illinois retirees should ask themselves is, “What is more likely? When their other options run out, will the Dem leaders finally push for pension reform or push for taxing retirement income?” (FYI – I think we all know the answer.)

Jeff Carter
2 years ago

not only that, the people leaving were high earning tax payers. the people arriving aren’t high earning tax payers.

Platinum Goose
2 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Carter

The 465,000 births minus deaths is the big part of their increase. The income on ages 1 – 10 is probably nothing.

Wally
2 years ago

We are leaving by October. There is not a single person we tell that says they wish they could go, too, unless they’re in a government union, such as teachers. All agree that IL is in big trouble. The most common reason to stay is grandchildren. But once the grandchildren are past babysitting age, they have no use for the grandparents and they can leave. The headlines about Pritzker, CRT, redrawing districts, etc. makes us itch to even leave sooner.

Ex Illini
2 years ago

The growing distrust in state government, the poor service residents receive despite a high overall tax burden and JB’s anti law and order agenda is what will continue to drive residents out of Illinois at an even greater rate. It is inevitable. Meanwhile JB lives in both Illinois and a state of denial.

Spike Protein
2 years ago

Pritzker earlier stated that people are leaving Illinois in part due to the state not investing enough money in public universities. That statement is a joke. Illinois public universities are a money pit where millions of dollars are wasted on things such as vice presidents/chancellors of diversity. They are also liberal indoctrination centers. Even attending college in Illinois is no guarantee that one will stay in Illinois after graduation. For example, a very large percentage of the students who attend my alma mater, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville (SIUE) eventually move to nearby St. Louis, or other nearby parts of Missouri,… Read more »

nixit
2 years ago
Reply to  Spike Protein

Outside of UIUC, I don’t think Illinois HS students aspire to attend college in Illinois. A generation or two ago, it only seemed natural to attend one of the directionals if you didn’t get into UIUC. But now kids would rather spend 4 of their prime years in Colorado/Alabama/Arizona than go to Charleston/Macomb/Carbondale. College, for better or worse, is as much a lifestyle choice as an educational one. Why spend your prime years in the same prairie wasteland you grew up in when the rest of the country has so much more to offer? You’re going to be in debt… Read more »

Willowglen
2 years ago
Reply to  nixit

Some of my dear friends are former All State athletes who, while All State, were not State champions or highly nationally ranked so to secure scholarships at the top Power 5 schools. Almost to a one, they went to Illinois public schools other than Champaign – Urbana. They went because the culture of the schools and their athletic programs were very attractive (Eastern was a multiple Div 2 national champion). Some of their kids compete, and yet they don’t go to Illinois schools today. My view is that the public universities in Illinois are no longer run with the students… Read more »

Paul
2 years ago
Reply to  Spike Protein

U of I did have the highest number of foreign Chinese students in the nation a couple of years ago. I’m sure they will make good taxpayers….

Fed up neighbor
2 years ago

Take the source into consideration Pritzker’s press secretary is none impressive.

Thee Jabroni
2 years ago

the bottom line is people leaving work and pay taxes,the people coming in are mostly illegals on welfare,good luck illinois on your money problems!!”-i know thats not politically correct but the truth hurts huh jb

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WIREPOINTS ORIGINAL STORIES

A statewide concern: Illinois’ population decline outpaces neighboring states – Wirepoints on ABC20 Champaign

“We are not in good shape” Wirepoints’ Ted Dabrowski told ABC 20 Champaign during a segment on Illinois’ latest population losses. Illinois was one of just three states to shrink in the 2010-2020 period and has lost another 300,000 people since then. Ted says things need to change. “It’s too expensive to live here, there aren’t enough good jobs and nobody trusts the government anymore. There’s just other places to go where you can be more satisfied.”

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