By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
The new 2020 U.S. Census numbers were released this week and any way you cut them, they were miserable for Illinois. The state’s population dropped 18,000 over the last decade and Illinois’ influence in national politics fell with the loss of another Congressional seat. Illinois was one of just three states in the country to lose population.
While the population loss was far lower than the Census Bureau’s previous estimates of about 250,000, the overall situation of this state remains unchanged. Illinois continues to be an extreme outlier nationally when it comes to population losses.
The less-than-expected population loss also doesn’t change the reality that Illinois is still bleeding tens of thousands of people and their incomes to other states each year. The fact that Illinois shrank overall means the state lost more people to domestic out-migration over the decade than it gained from its natural increase (births minus deaths) and net international immigration.
Unsurprisingly, some are downplaying just how bad the situation is. Others are taking in the census news with a sigh of relief, largely because Illinois could have lost two Congressional seats but gave up only one. And yet others, like Gov. J.B. Pritzker, said the census data “exceeded expectations.”
Nothing in the census release grants any of that optimism. Let’s look at the facts:
1. Illinois was trounced by other states in the competition for people.
Illinois was one of only three states to lose population over the decade. Forty-seven states gained population. Overall, the country’s entire population increased by 22.7 million, or 7.4 percent. A few states even garnered millions of people. Texas gained 4 million (up 15.9%) while Florida added about 2.7 million (14.6%).
On the other extreme, the census shows Illinois was an outlier nationally, spared only by West Virginia (-59,000) from ending up in last place. The other state to join the population losers was Mississippi (-6,000).
2. Illinois is experiencing significant out-migration.
The fact that Illinois didn’t grow in population means that the amount of people leaving Illinois over the decade exceeded the state’s natural increase (births minus deaths) and net international immigration.
According to previous U.S. Census estimates, Illinois’ net natural increase averaged about 50,000 people a year since 2010. Another 25,000 a year came from net international migration, meaning Illinois’ population was growing naturally by about 75,000 people annually, or 750,000 over the decade.
For Illinois to have shrunk in population over the decade as it did, the state had to have lost, on net, about 75,000 people each year to other states.
That amount of out-migration is basically confirmed by data from the Internal Revenue Service, which tracks actual income tax filings to measure the annual migration of taxpayers between states. In all, the IRS data shows Illinois lost a net 645,000 tax filers and their dependents to other states between 2010 and 2018.
Those filers took their incomes with them, and if you add up all the lost income, Illinois’ AGI (adjusted gross income) losses total $137 billion over the period. That’s money that could have been taxed, now gone forever.
3. Illinois’ population problem is broad.
Gov. Pritzker is trying to pin the population losses largely on college students and higher education costs. While he’s right that Illinois has had a massive brain drain when it comes to students – the New York Times documented those losses here – the state’s decline hasn’t been limited to students.
Illinois is losing virtually every demographic to other states. Both young and old, and rich and poor are leaving Illinois on a net basis. Since 2012, Illinois has lost more people to out-migration than it has gained from in-migration in every single major age and income bracket, according to the IRS migration data.
4. Cold weather? Forget it.
The traditional excuse for Illinois’ losses – that masses of retirees move away because of bad weather – is also negated by the data.
The freezing state of Minnesota grew by almost 400,000, or 7.6%, for the decade. That’s ahead of the 7.4% average for the entire country.
And all of Illinois’ neighboring states – even the cold-weather ones – grew their populations over the same period that Illinois shrank. Wisconsin added 206,000 people while Indiana added another 300,000, up 3.6% and 4.7%, respectively.
4. The system is working as intended.
Illinois’ drop in the Congressional Delegation now leaves the state with just 17 seats, far below the 27 the state had at its peak. The state’s influence is waning nationally, a sign of Illinois’ failure to attract people and businesses.
While that’s bad news for Illinois – the state’s power and clout are waning – the “redistribution” of Congressional representation is working as intended. Illinois, with its failed policies, is losing representation.
Meanwhile, states like Florida and Texas that attract millions with pro-growth policies, are growing in representation.
It’s a voluntary form of redistribution that’s working as intended.
5. Illinois’ 2020 Census push may have swayed the numbers
We’ll never know how much Illinois’ push to lift up the census numbers in 2020 impacted the population numbers, but the state’s efforts shouldn’t be ignored. Were the lower-than-expected population losses a result of the Census’ poor intercensal estimates, or due to a successful response campaign by Illinois to increase survey participation in 2020 compared to 2010?
From Politico Illinois:
It may be proof that the heavy lifting to get residents counted last year actually worked. “We built a coordinated, robust, statewide effort to reach millions of Illinois residents, particularly those in hard-to-count communities, and it proved to be tremendously successful,” Gov. J.B. Pritzker said in a statement to Playbook. He pointed to a “boots on the ground” effort that included 400 organizations, coordinated by 31 “regional intermediaries.” It was all fueled by $47.8 million in funding.
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Naysayers of Illinois’ population problem are failing to correlate it with the host of other metrics where the state is a national outlier. Illinois has the most pension debt of any state, the worst credit rating, the highest property taxes, some of the worst-performing property values and more.
To reverse its shrinkage, Illinois must embrace broad, comprehensive reforms of the kind Illinois’ political establishment refuses to consider. But one thing is clear: Denial – about population or any of Illinois’ other problems – fixes nothing.
Read more about Illinois’ out-migration problem:
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
leave –leave –leave Illinois.
That has been the motto of many–been on that bandwagon.
Pritzker said the universities are underfunded so students go out of state. Well, they find better run, more solvent states, better job opportunities, so don’t return to Illinois. So if the children don’t come back home, the parents have no reason to stay, either.
I left 4 years ago. So far I’ve saved $28,000 in real estate taxes alone. Life is good
No one can use cold weather as an excuse for population decline since Pennsylvania is just as cold as Illinois.
Ditto for Wisconsin.
OK then lets lose all of our seats then perhaps the political hacks and associates of the Official Government Workers Party will leave the state to wreck another.
I confess I did not undertake the Census. Refuse anything Government these days. Get out of my life.
Bring. It. On.
OK so you even say yourself that 10’s of thousands per year are leaving so how in the hell did anyone arrive at only 18,000 over the last ten years. Everyone everyone here is talking out of two sides of your mouths. No one wants to fess up. You have Republican’s and smart Democrats leaving the state for what ever reason but many may be tired of the tax increases and other illegal actions by hundreds of elected officials as proven by the Edgar County Watch Dogs. C’mon man! We must wake up in this state! Here’s the bottom line… Read more »
Don’t worry. When the ship hits bottom, Wirepoints intends to navigate the passengers back to the surface. All you need to decide is, “Is that worth sticking around for?”
Absolutely right. The system is working as intended. I had the freedom to leave Illinois so I did. Some were wiser than me and left years earlier. Many are _____(fill in the blank) and remain, waking each day with a little more public debt on their shoulders, a little less safe, and a little less free to express their beliefs.
While immigration (or the lack thereof) plays an important role in these numbers, it’s what goes unsaid about immigration that interests me. I’m pro-immigration, but I also recognize the financial cost/benefit of the equation. Maintaining the social infrastructure to support immigrants is very expensive, especially if they are not college-educated and ready to fill a well-paying job that would have gone unfilled otherwise. So while the Illinois apologists will point to immigration as the main driver of population loss, I wonder if we turned the immigration spigot back to full gush, would Illinois be in a better or worse financial… Read more »
When you say pro-immigration, I think most people will say they are pro-immigration. The difference is I am for pro-legal immigration not illegal immigration. That is where the libs are very dishonest about people that say they are against illegal immigration, the libs like to say people that are against illegal immigration are against immigration, period. That is where they are dishonest. I am all for people coming to this country legally but am against them coming illegally and putting a drain on the system and getting benefits. The first people that should be getting benefits are American citizens and… Read more »
I am anti-immigration. we are full for now. Try again next generation. Thanks!
Obviously the state will loose a Democrat seat. How is that a loss? One less liberal, one less “tax and spend(waste)”.
I’ve been here for 60 years, all my life, but invested in property in Texas 12 years ago as an investment. They’re starting to build on the land. Why would I not want to jump at the opportunity to live free, with people that tax and legislate fairly … and not beholdin’ to big government, a bigger governor and sky high taxes?
We lose a Republican seat, bye bye Kinzinger
Getting rid of him is worth it – the only person he served was himself. Expect to see him reappear like a wart as a faux Republican on one of the ‘fair and balanced’ Leftist networks like MSLSD. Kasich, Kinzinger, and Flake may go on a ‘Bash America Tour’ in 2022.
I’d love to just once hear a “leader” in this state take responsibility for the problem and actually prescribe a bona fide solution. Instead we have a knee-jerk “blame Rauner”, added to a “throw money at the universities and THEIR unions” response. What?! it’s almost like a bad Monty Python skit, where a problem is presented with a completely non-sensical, unrelated “solution.” The problem here is one thing: property taxes. Everything here is driven by ridiculous property taxes, because the state has completely handcuffed every governing authority from doing anything about it. You can’t even move to a conservative town… Read more »
Easy there, IL Entrepreneur! I think your life span is beiing reduced each day you engage in these thoughts with such a high stress level. Try some weed and mellow a bit. You’re still above the turf. Be grateful for that. Put on a happy face. Many died younger than you, after all.
I think you’re right James. It’s been a tough week on the business front. I might need to check out for a while and enjoy the fresh air.
or make a location change and make your handle “Texas Entrepreneur” or “Tennessee Entrepreneur”
You can only conclude the supermajority Democrats, and their minions the public employee unions and media, like things just the way they are. They have worked mighty hard for this. Higher taxes and an effort for another Red State bailout will dominate the next ten years for Illinois.
A “leader” take responsibility? Are you kidding me. We are in the age now in America where noone takes personal responsibility, they love to blame someone else for what has happened to them. It is easier to blame someone else than to look at themselves and ask how can I make things better. If more people did that in America we would thrive but we would rather blame someone else for all our problems and live off the government. People need to pull up their big boy and girl pants and take responsibility for their lives. You have a choice… Read more »
All of the stress resulting from thinking about politics is essentially tilting at windmills and all for zero positive results in most cases.
“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.”
The one thing you can change is to move. Illinois has been in a downward spiral for years. Once all the manufacturing industries left Illinois, Illinois was the end.
James, while I rarely agree with you, I usually find your comments thought-provoking, and an insight into the thinking of those who have a different worldview than I do. This comment seems to provide another of those insights.
Yes, there is little that any of us can do individually to influence politics. But now that liberals are making headway on their goals, those of us who disagree should recite the serenity prayer and stop tilting at windmills? I don’t recall seeing that advice when conservatives were in power. In fact, progressives were practically foaming at the mouth to provoke change.
That’s advice given to individuals and not as those who prefer like-minded group-think. Presumably you’re “free, white and 21” as the saying goes, so do as you please. Just don’t be surprised if it brings more ulcers than happiness in the general scheme of things over a long period of time.
“it’s almost like a bad Monty Python skit, where a problem is presented with a completely non-sensical, unrelated “solution.””
Like the new Juneteenth holiday?