By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
Illinois’ pension debt, already the nation’s biggest, grew to $317 billion in 2020 according to a new report from Moody’s Investors Service.
The Moody’s report confirms Wirepoints’ prediction made last April in “Coronavirus impact may push Illinois state pension debt to over $300 billion.” We warned that the economic fallout from COVID and record-low interest rates would cause the state’s pension shortfall to jump to $312 billion.
Now Moody’s says the shortfalls of Illinois’ five state-run pension funds, based on the credit agency’s own calculations, jumped by $56 billion, up from $261 billion in 2019.
Moody’s report also highlighted Illinois’ extreme “outlier” status, warning that “Illinois’ pension liabilities are the highest among the 50 states” and that the state’s total debts “are at or near the top by almost any measure.”
The $317 billion in debt pushes Illinois’ pension crisis into a whole new level. Illinois’ debt now amounts to roughly 37% of GDP. That’s up from 26 percent Moody’s reported the year before.
Moody’s has not provided updated 2020 50-state data, but we can share their 2018 data here:
In total, Illinois’ long-term debt from borrowing, pensions and retiree health is expected to equal 48 percent of the state’s GDP in 2020, up from 38 percent the year before.
The $317 billion shortfall is more than double the state’s official debt estimate of $144 billion. The difference is driven by differing investment return expectations between the financial markets and the state.
The state assumes the pension funds will continue to earn an average of nearly 7 percent a year, while Moody’s lowered its assumptions for 2020 to just 2.7 percent: “the FTSE Pension Liability Index, a high-grade corporate bond index Moody’s uses to value state and local government pension liabilities, fell to 2.70% as of June 30, 2020, from 3.51% the prior year.”
Moody’s also reported that the asset-to-payout ratio for the state’s funds are now equal to about seven years’ worth of payouts.
That’s down compared to Wirepoints’ report on asset-to-payout ratios we released last year in this report: COVID-19 pushes nation’s weakest public pension plans closer to the brink: A 50-state survey.
Here’s what we reported then.
The ratios in Illinois have collapsed since 2000, creating increasing concerns about the funds’ solvency. Illinois is an extreme outlier nationally when it comes to this solvency ratio.
Healthy funds have ratios that range from 25-40 years’ worth of payouts.
Moody’s conclusion echoes Wirepoints’ own summary of the state’s situation: “Illinois is an outlier among states both for fiscal challenges from pension expenses and for its limited capacity to modify the benefit packages that drive these expenses.”
This latest data shows why Speaker Welch’s idea to use a progressive income tax to pay for pensions will only make Illinois’ crisis worse. No amount of tax hikes can catch up with the ever-increasing debt. It’s simply throwing good money after bad.
Until Illinois passes a constitutional amendment to change its “limited capacity to modify the benefit packages,” Illinois will continue to spiral downward.
Read more about Illinois pension crisis:
- Wirepoints’ Pension Solutions homepage
- Illinois Speaker Welch admits ‘folks don’t trust us,’ yet calls for redo of progressive income tax hike
- Coronavirus impact may push Illinois state pension debt to over $300 billion
- Illinois Pensions – Overpromised & Overgenerous
- Public safety payrolls or pensions? Illinois cities’ impossible choice.
A set of state lawmakers want to extend CPS’ current school closing moratorium to February 1, 2027 – the same year CPS is set to transition to a fully-elected school board. That means schools like Manley High School, with capacity for more than 1,000 students but enrollment of just 78, can’t be closed for anther three years. The school spends $45,000 per student, but just 2.4% of students read at grade level.
Hopefully, all media will get the message, in Illinois, too.
Ted joined Tom Miller of WJPF to talk about Illinois’ highest-in-the-nation property taxes, why lawmakers don’t want to touch the tax’s cost drivers, just how much Illinoisans’ tax burden has grown over the decades, why Gov. Pritzker failed to meet his promise to reform property taxes, and more.
The reality is this: pensions will be paid until there is nothing else left to be cut, and then everything will collapse into crisis. That means shut down state parks, limited educational funding, and even hyperlocal cuts like pot holes never being repaired or park equipment never being replaced. How long will this take? My guess is decades. Enjoy the ride down. There is still a long way to go. They’ll bleed the last remaining residents until we look like Detriot and then tax us some more.
Debtsor is dead on correct. Finally someone understands how this will play out. Everyone else that are waiting for the pensioners to suffer are delusional. It may make you feel better to believe this but it’s not going to happen. The courts will not allow pensions to be cut as long as increasing taxes produces additional revenue. They stated this in the last ruling. Pension will be paid first.
Pensioners will not suffer, until they do. And trust me, they will suffer greatly, and every one of them will be *shocked* I tell *shocked* when that next check on the first of the month never arrives…it’s inevitable, but it’s still 10-15-20 years away. We have a 10% flat tax, a 15% sales tax, a 8% property tax, and $500 vehicle registrations to endure before it all collapses in upon itself, and president Donald Trump jr. will have to step in to deal with the mess…
I’ve always agree with this. Wow, 10 years away? Ok, could be. You may be right. The market is too fragile, though.
I’m guessing the only financial mess Don jr. will handling is his old man’s. With no major bank willing to lend money to Trump any longer (Deutche Bank can’t wait to finally collect the hundreds of millions they’re owed over the next couple of years and finally cut ties with the Trumpster) the Trumps may have to start selling some of those real estate assets. The properties covering Deutche’s loans are under water and with Trump personally guaranteeing the loans they can go after his other assets. He’s still worth $2 billion plus but who knows how much his commercial… Read more »
So you have a bad case of TDS…
Not so much. If you in fact actually believe junior could ever be president, and I’m not sure you do, then you are quite delusional. So I guess you could say you have your own version of TDS.
The Don Jr part was kind of a joke. Apparently you’ve been Triggered.
I think Don Jr wrote a book with that title. You can buy copy with the link the link below.
https://www.target.com/p/triggered-by-donald-trump-jr-hardcover/-/A-77353316
Kinda assumed you weren’t serious but I gotta keep ya honest. I can get the book for $2.13 + $3.99 shipping on Amazon.
As with any other Ponzi scheme, pensioners will be paid as long as the next level in the pyramid keeps paying into the scheme. Do you believe that currently working public employees will watch their pay stagnate or be cut because pensions must be paid first? If current behavior is any indication, I think pensioners should fear that their own unions will turn against them.
“Do you believe that currently working public employees will watch their pay stagnate or be cut because pensions must be paid first?”
Yes. Until they don’t. But the one thing ALL unions share in common is that they will sacrifice younger members for the betterment of those with more seniority. The unions will do anything and everything to protect union members closest to retirement.
So you’re saying 10-20 years still on the clock. Wow, they’ll never be humbled haha
Here is the prediction, beyond what I’ve said below. There will be a market crisis (20-40%) in the next 2 years. Tangential things will happen that will crush the existing fraudulent “markets” including stock, bond, etc. Credit crunches will occur. Chicago ruined its revenue streams so Biden could give it fake USD that will be worth less and less each year, and doesn’t barely help the math — but goes to the pensioners anyway in the meantime. The pensioners get like a year and then the lack of revenues and no more credit makes everyone shrug his shoulders and more… Read more »
You also predicted that Trump would get re-elected and the GOP would control both the House and the Senate. Your predictions are useless. The real prediction….tax increases.
Yes, I did, and if you don’t think that the sham election was just that … you probably also think that making predictions is easy (which you don’t do). What’s even better is that it’s easy to nay say and pick and then when my predictions are right, you never reply. Great work, my friend. Tax increases are coming, yes. Great, novel idea. Ha – the sun is coming up tomorrow too. I’m dying. Boooooring.
Election fraud. Everyone knows it
Few but Republicans have any interest in restoring honest elections. It looks like a couple of decades before Republicans (and their successors) will be back in power. Meanwhile the Republicans will have lost all incentive for honest elections. With the crooks in charge and winning, the only thing close to a conservative who’ll win elective office will be a sketchy conservative in a right-wing district who will have no power to push an agenda forward. We’ll be back in the Reconstruction Era when those in power stuck it to the losers, supported election of mostly ignorant puppets to state office… Read more »
The Daley’s, Madigan’s, Burke’s, Jone’s, along with the 6 past Governors and some other politicians “Are Responsible!!!” And they should not “Allowed” to just walk away like nothing happen. They suffer like we are going to.
Correction: They must suffer & be “Allowed”
Good ole ILLI-NOISE Politics…Barrack INSANE Obama’s adopted Adopted Home State…He brought ILL-NOISE POLITICS to our nations Capital to run [RUIN] Our Nation…Always embarrassed to say I’m from ILLI-NOISE! We live in a State w/ rich resources and our corrupt leaders steal it all away.
Perhaps the Feds will bail out state and local pension plans by passing a public employee version of ERISA (PERISA) that includes minimum funding standards for public plans comparable to the limits on private plans such as if funding below X%, no new pension service credit can be accumulated, no benefit improvements, and/or no COLA amounts in excess of inflation; no pensions payable over the current limit for private plans of $230K per year; no compensation in excess of $285K considered as pension eligible. It would provide cover for State and local officials and begin to stop the bleed.
300 billion? Isn’t that a rounding error to GASB accounting? Just asking.
And Dem’s authorized new Covid relief payment to State of Illinois, a mere $13.5 billion, is just a drop in the bucket for pension funding shortfalls. Chicago gets $1.98 billion for its successful efforts to elect Biden/Harris while destroying Chicago’s business economy in realizing that Covid-lockdown action plan. Illinois and Chicago voters, we got the shaft.
We always get the shaft, point the finger at Chicago and cook county they screw the state every signal election.
Wirepoints and commenters use the term “death spiral” when describing Illinois. We aren’t trying to be cute or clever. It is an accurate term. Illinois is dying. An infection called liberalism is killing it. The incompetent in-house medical staff keep increasing the dosage of a medicine that doesn’t work. Every couple years a better treatment or some relief is offered by outside specialists and rejected by the patient. Now it’s time to step back even if that means letting the patient suffer. Only when the pain becomes unbearable will the patient listen to an alternative treatment from Wirepoints. I can’t… Read more »
Once again….with such astronomical pension debt, when Illinois gets its $7 billion ($13billion overall) in fed covid relief funding, directly or indirectly, it will be gobbled up in a flash as minascual drop in the bucket payment to keep the sinking ship afloat for the upperincome/ well to do political class ( no questions asked by press), while all the stuff the woke/left advocate for poor folks gets peanuts. While ironically a Wisconsin, Indiana or Florida will have more fed $billions$ to fund all the stuff the woke/left talks about…..what a joke
I hate to break it to all of you posters but pensions will be paid first along with bond payments. What’s left will be used for the rest of our expenses. When there isn’t money to pay for all the other expenses Illinois will either raise taxes or be forced to make cuts. The courts have already stated they will step in and force pension payments before they ever let them go insolvent. Taxes will indeed go up. Right now it’s getting rid of loopholes for corporations. Next it will be a flat tax increase or another bite at the… Read more »
I can’t wait until your pension goes insolvent. You are truly delusional. More and more are moving, and the pensions are dying. There must be adequate services by Federal law, and taxes can only go so high. Enjoy the insolvency loser.
P.S. The firefighter’s fund will go insolvent. Corrupt public unions demanding more doesn’t beat math. Enjoy living in a ditch and begging for food.
Taxes can only go so high?🤣
Uh, unless you flunked second grade math, which you most likely did, you would know that is a fact. IL has already passed the point of taxes being raised being helpful, now it just drives more out of the state.
cant wait to see the over paid slobs using a linc card,oh wait,linc cards will be insolvent also!!-i ll be laughing from florida!!
I moved two years ago to Indiana. I am now actively talking to family in Illinois, the worst state in the nation, to move as well. Each person the state loses brings the pensions that much quicker to insolvency, and that can’t arrive soon enough. We are at the point where raising taxes is just hurting the state, and cuts can only go so deep. Enjoy the insolvency!!!!!
Better pick out the best cardboard box for the ditch now by the way. Get it before all the union piggies are fighting over them in five years or less. 🙂
I think the main metric to watch is net outmigration…Will the numbers start to accelerate? It’s not just who and how many leave…and the pace, but also, how quickly in-migration drops. Once the trend starts and everyone outside of Illinois knows how bad it is here, no one will want to be the sucker that comes into Illinois to pay the ever-growing bills. And that will feed on itself…Not predicting it, but watching for it…
yea,in migration equals welfare illegal aliens sucking off the system,out migration equals people that work and pay into the “system”-so,good luck ill….inoise!!
Democrats (and some RINO’s) are insistent that amnesty be granted to millions of illegal aliens already here. This will invite millions more, who are already on their way. These people will go wherever they can, and since most of them are uneducated, they will be the willing fools who will come here to pay these bills. This is, in fact, how Illinois has been working for decades already. Just look at the massive concentration of immigrants here. Many of them do indeed work hard at blue collar/gig jobs, and they are unwittingly fleeced by a government that gives all the… Read more »
This trend is already happening. And the middle to upper class folks who do stay here are increasingly spending as much time as possible at their second homes in other states.
Clearly, most, if not all the pensions are insolvent, so is it possible for the pensions themselves, not a municipality or the state, to file for bankruptcy? If not, then I do not see any way out for Illinois other than a Puerto Rico-style state bankruptcy.
No it’s not possible for the pensions themselves to go bankrupt. The funding level of pensions have absolutely nothing to do with pensioners getting paid. If the pension funds run dry the state will still be forced to pay the pensions. The courts have made that clear. Too many people believe this funding problem only impacts pensioners when in reality they will be the last ones to feel the pain as they will be paid first.
This guy is a fool. Lots of pensions have gone bankrupt, and plenty more will. As many have said on this site and others before, this will become a Federal court issue once they run out of money. No one will care about the ISC, which is bought and paid for anyway. What can’t go on doesn’t, and the unbiased see this can’t much longer man. Sorry, reality doesn’t care about your pension.
By the way, you need to tell people, in detail, how a state losing lots of people, more every year, and a state with high taxes, which already pays 30% of its budget to pensions that most people don’t care about, will survive another 30 years like this, You can’t just get away with saying “they will just get paid.” Today Crains and Greg Hinz both demanded pension changes because they admit it isn’t sustainable. It isn’t. You have no math that makes it work. 50% of the budget will never go to pensions, and of course there has to… Read more »
If you’re right then there is no pension crisis Todd. We can all just wait for them to go bankrupt and problem solved. Maybe, just maybe the issue is more complex than your simple solution. The courts have already ruled that while pensioners hold no right to enforce a set funding level they have expressed their ability to step in and force fund the pensions if it can be shown default is imminent. While it’s possible that a city could get out of it with bankruptcy (if the state allowed) the state has no such out. Since this article is… Read more »
By the way, you need to tell people, in detail, how a state losing lots of people, more every year, and a state with high taxes, which already pays 30% of its budget to pensions that most people don’t care about, will survive another 30 years like this, You can’t just get away with saying “they will just get paid.” Today Crains and Greg Hinz both demanded pension changes because they admit it isn’t sustainable. It isn’t. You have no math that makes it work. 50% of the budget will never go to pensions, and of course there has to… Read more »
I agree that pensions won’t make up 50% of the budget. Don’t you worry though since the state will increase taxes to make that number get smaller.
But increasing taxes when more people move does nothing in the long run man, sorry. You also know taxes can’t be raised forever, I hope. You keep mentioning the ISC. They aren’t going to be ruling on anything when this blows up. You choose to ignore that, and for good reason, as it destroys any argument you have, and you also can’t beat math. You have no answer for that either. Also, the Federal goverment has been talking about bankruptcy for states for years now – they know what is coming. Also, the state will be forced to allow municiple… Read more »
Theoretically (based on dubious Illinois precedent) courts could order treasurers to pay, although this is not consistent with the “separation of powers” doctrine that gives legislators exclusive authority over spending. However when there are more outstanding bills than money in the treasury, I don’t know that a court could dictate to another branch of government [executive or legislative] whom to pay first. It would be a judicial usurpation akin to a judge telling a police officer whom to arrest in a street brawl (absent a valid warrant). Maintaining a “rule of [established] law” is difficult in a time of anarchy,… Read more »
During the Rauner years the courts forced the legislature to pay certain bills when no budget had been passed. Nothing theoretical about it.
It would have broke Federal law to not make certain payments, that is why. That has nothing to do with insolvency – it was just a lack of budget. You are clueless. Insolvent pension plans won’t be able to be paid no matter what, and they won’t be handled by the ISC anyway. There is no law that prevents insolvency, and that is because math cannot be beaten. Enjoy the insolvency.
John, Even the author (Ted) of this article agrees with me. If pension funds run dry the state will be forced to move to pay as you go. The pension funds can run dry and the state is on the hook for the payments. Some of you are really struggling with this basic concept. The pro reformer crowds recognize this and that’s why they are worried. When the state reaches a point where there isn’t enough money they will be forced to pay for things based on legal obligations. Pensioners are at the front of the line. They will be… Read more »
“Pensions would crowd out all other expenses: schools, health, roads…”
Their pensions are your potholes, your derelict playground equipment, your delapilated public buildings, your village’s lack of code enforcement..
I will try being nice for once. Tell me, in a realistic way, how the state of Illinois will function still, with businesses and people still being able to live here and function fine and the pensions still get paid in full. Remember that people will have to stop moving out in greater numbers and that our credit rating can’t go to junk. Tell me how the state functions still and the pensions get paid still. If you can’t then nothing you say is worth anything. The doomsday “the state totally collapses but the pensions still get paid” scenario won’t… Read more »
John, you’re preaching to the choir. We just disagree on the timeline. I will tell you how the state functions still and the pensions get paid. Look to California style taxes. Although their tax rate is ‘progressive’ the rate ramps up pretty quickly to 9.3% of any income over $57,000; it’s 8% of anything over $45,000! Our 4.95% tax rate looks generous compared to that. It’s $150 to register a car in Illinois – but it’s double or triple that in California. A lot of pensions are paid by local governments. We only have the #2 property taxes in the… Read more »
I understand that right now we can still pay pensions, but it won’t stay that way another ten years if nothing is done. That is reality. I don’t even live here anymore. I left because my company did. Many more will. I am trying to get family to move, but things aren’t bad enough for them yet.
Both Ted and Mark agree that will not last though. They have both stated that would not be able to go on for long. I have talked to them both about this myself, so I know. I have also talked to actuaries about this, and they also agree it wouldn’t last. It won’t last. They know more than you by miles. If the pensions make it impossible to make federally required payments and services and taxes are no longer able to be raised, then it will be impossible to continue pay as you go. Period. The math wins out, every… Read more »
Illinois still has A LOT of prosperity to tax. And as long as Democrats keep running the state, they will keep taxing.
And until such time, in the future, those Fortune 500 companies flee the state, and the billionaires all leave, the state will continue to pay the pensions.
And they will flee, and the pensions won’t get paid, if nothing changes.
But they haven’t. McDonalds just doubled down a few years ago by setting up HQ in Chicago instead of Oak Brook. I’ve only heard of small companies leaving.
A quote from Ted I just got through e-mail now about pay as you go, pay attention to the words “wouldn’t be sustainable”: “Hard to know how it plays out. Illinois can go pay-go, but how much other services will be cut? How high will taxes go to make the payments? How many people will leave and how fast, and how many people and companies will reject Illinois as a new home? How long does it take to fall apart? We don’t have the answers. But it wouldn’t be sustainable – and least not from where we are perched today.”
Everyone agrees its unsustainable. But it can stay unsustainable for a long, long time. Call me when Allstate, State Farm, Cat, John Deere, Jenner & Block, Leo Burnett, and United airlines, when they all leave the state, and those high income jobs are gone, and so are the progressive leftist wingnuts who work there, then, and only then, can we talk about people fleeing the state. These groups show they have a HIGH appetitite for taxes – look what these same liberals pay in taxes in NY, CA, NJ. IL still has a long, long way to go. This hasn’t… Read more »
Have a good day Debtsor.
I’m glad we agree. Of course, these large companies may all declare their exit before the end of the year, then we are totally F’d. But we’re not there yet.
If pensions basically become ‘pay as you go’, i.e. welfare, then union members will need to be laid off to keep up with the exponential rate of growth. Layoffs and downsizing will need to happen.
Pay as you go work work because you are earning no rate of return. It will be impossible to pay these pensions at that point and still have a state that functions. The second any of these major funds run to zero they won’t be paid until they are reformed.
I do agree that pensions will be paid well past the point of any common sense (in fact, one can argue we are at that stage now) and that taxes will be raised (of all kinds). Of course, the state will begin to look like Missisippi or West Virginia in term of socio-economic life. Where I don’t agree with you Pensions Paid First is that IOU’s will be issued in lieu of payments, and at that time the crisis will take on unknown and huge challenges. It won’t be a legal issue, but an issue of simply no money at… Read more »
Pensions NOT Paid ignores the facts that more and and more people are leaving, the state is at the point where raising taxes does no good anymore as more and more people and businesses are leaving every year, math and reality doesn’t care about what our corrupt constitution says, cutting services too much breaks Federal law, and people can only pay so much in taxes in an already high tax state. The fact that already 30% of the state budget goes towards one thing is insane, and Tier 2 most likely will have to be enhanced because it is not… Read more »
Yes Fake RM, the Tier 2 just became an inside way of Ponzi’ing the Tier 1s that were insolvent. I know a guy who is Tier 2 who told me that just 5 years of working outside of his current government system revealed a qualification of SS benefits that at age 67 or 70 were beyond Tier 2s promises already if vested at 10 years, lol A market crisis is coming within 2 years and at that time, the math will show itself, among other things. I’m glad I left Chicago a while back, because it’s gonna get ugly. The… Read more »
This pension situation obviously cannot continue on Willowglen. Anyone with half a brain could see that easily. I am not wasting anymore of my time arguing with biased union dopes on here that don’t want to accept mathematical reality. The crash will be here soon, and the unions will get the reality check they have been deserving for a long time. I can’t wait.
I agree. I have spoken with all sorts of union guys (that I liked otherwise) and they are delusional – incidentally most were fire guys. These were guys that worked 3 days a week from age (early 20s) to get paid more than someone in the private sector for the little they did, and aren’t all that necessary anyway (fire is the least needed of all the public union gov’t crap BY FAR). They would have taken half the salary for that position even if the pension was also half as much. Why? It was and is a crazy easy… Read more »
“another bite at the progressive tax apple.” That went SO well the last time. No chance of that passing until pensions are dealt with. People are fed up. Raise the flat tax you say? That will only drive more people out of the state. It is called a death spiral – a death spiral of the pensions that is. Enjoy.
The courts never said they would step in and force anything. They said the pensions couldn’t be cut, but they never said the pensions couldn’t go insolvent, which they will. At the point they go insolvent there will be no possible way to keep paying them. Enjoy your delusion while it lasts.
Also, federal courts will be all that matter once they do go insolvent, not the public union owned ISC. Federal courts will look at the balance sheet and know it is game over.
It must be sad to know deep down that your pension is doomed and then to go to comment boards to try and convince yourself it isn’t when the facts obviously say it is. It must be sad to argue against irrefutable math because you are so desperate for reality to go away. I made the mistake of giving you the time of day, but I won’t now after this comment. No more comments for me until the pensions go insolvent and are cut. What I will say before I go is that I will be back here when the… Read more »
You may have a long wait sir
Detroit pensioners didn’t get what they were promised and some of them are having a hard time after they lost most of their medical benefits. Also since pensions have to be paid, school districts better organize some serious bake sales if they want to buy books and computers. And no, we’re not paying up even if it’s for the kids. Calif. voters rejected Prop 15 and said “no” to baseless demands for school funding.
The first thing they should cut are medical benefits. But they are too greedy for that even. You at least KNOW what economic benefits are going to be because of MATH and planning, but health care was always something that changed every year, went up every year, etc.
this crappy state is doomed,mainly because of the sycophant politicians in charge,suck ups to the public unions and NO ONE has the cahonas to do whats right ,that includes the dems AND the rino republicans,theyre all weak and feckless!!
The Fail Tax failing was the beginning of the end of the pension sham for piggie Pritz and the greedy, out of touch unions. It is about time. There is a reason Pritz is so mad about it failing; he knows he is on a rapidly sinking ship now, and he doesn’t want to do what it takes to keep it floating.
It is very obvious at this point that these pensions will not get paid in full. If I were getting a pension in Illinois right now I would be very, very worried. There is no math that makes this work, even more so when more and more people will keep leaving this state. Bottom line: these pensions are going to collapse and not get paid out until they are fixed at some point in the not distant future.
Oh, they’ll get paid. They will steal everything from the private sector first, before giving a nickel back. You completely underestimate what the unions will do in the event of insolvency. They will take glee in destroying this state for just a few more years of their king’s ransom pensions. In addition, bankruptcy judges tend to look at the “working people” as first priority in these types of things. They will eliminate every public service there is before taking a dime away from the pensions. This state is close, but it will become an enormous hell hole, which will only… Read more »
They won’t get paid because it will break federal law to not provide basic services, which also will make the police powers argument a 100% reality. The pensions are not going to get paid, because no one will live here worth anything as time goes on. It simply isn’t possible in any realistic way. “eliminate every public service there is before taking a dime away from the pensions.” You are an idiot if you believe that, as not only does it break the law, but it also would drive everyone out of the state anyway.
Fake, I agree with you on most things but it’s laughable to appeal to the “law” in IL or the “Constitution” anymore in the USA. Illinois Entrepreneur is right, even your term “basic services” is relative especially when the Cook County or other judge who doesn’t want to change the status quo lives in Winnetka and doesn’t see first hand that no services really exist any longer. LOL. The pensions will ultimately just run out of the ability to cut a check, YES THIS IS TRUE, but until that time the HOGS will keep feeding, you bet your little batooty.
So what did Pritzker say about the ballooning pension debt? Yeah.
We have a state and federal government that spends like money falls from the skies every day.
Pritzker is a union puppet who may be renamed Governor Junk soon.
Insolvency is knocking on the door; the door will have to be opened soon. All the public union and politician games over the years are quickly being burnt away by the harsh reality of math. It is about game over time for the pensions. Things are RAPIDLY getting worse now.
How much does Illinois pay for Pensions per year? How much does Illinois contribute to Pension’s every year?
If Illinois only has 7 years left, but they contribute more than they spend. The number of years the Pension can survive is too great for Politicians to do something.
I looked up the info. The problem doesn’t exist until 2045 at current payouts. The State is on the wrong end of the Laffer curve, but they have promises that prohibit tax reduction. This creates the false belief that tax increases can create revenue to pay the bills. Instead, tax increases will decrease the revenue eventually.
2045 is a straight line estimate, and I would guess the problem occurs around 2025. Life doesn’t move on a straight line, and one of these years stuff will happen that causes tax revenue to drop and pension values decreasing.
Yes, if it lasts that long (2025, sure it can) and they get lucky – if you aren’t out of this state or city by then, you deserve to get what’s coming to you.