About that U.S. Census “undercount”: Illinois’ population is still just 12.8 million – Wirepoints

By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner

You may hear from Gov. J.B. Pritzker and other lawmakers that Illinois’ population actually topped 13 million in 2020. That the 18,000 decline in population between 2010 and 2020 reported by the U.S. Census earlier this year didn’t actually happen.

That’s not correct: Illinois’ 2020 population hasn’t changed. Illinois’ official count for 2020 is still 12,830,632 people – not 13 million.

The U.S. Census Bureau recently threw that fact into confusion with its release of its Post-Enumeration Survey, or PES, that found Illinois was one of 14 states significantly “overcounted” or “undercounted” during the 2020 Decennial Census. The PES is a small survey of 161,000 U.S. households. According to the Bureau, the PES, along with other demographic surveys, serves as a “data quality indicator” for the Bureau’s decennial census.

The confusion in Illinois stems from PES’ estimation that the state’s population was “undercounted” by 1.97 percent during the 2020 census. That’s led some politicians and media members to erroneously claim that the PES means Illinois’ population is actually above 13 million. 

Here’s why it’s wrong. Based on a conversation Wirepoints had with Kristina Barrett, a Public Affairs Specialist at the Public Information Office of the U.S. Census Bureau, we learned the PES has no impact on Illinois’ population numbers: “It remains unchanged at 12.8 million,” Barrett said.

She also told us the 2020 Census count and the PES are based on “entirely separate” methodologies. The “undercount” percentage is based on a small sample and mathematically can’t be applied to the census count. The PES samples just 160,000 households – 0.1% of the 130 million households in the U.S. – while the decennial census covers the nation’s full population.

A webinar from the Census also reiterated that the PES is used for future data collection improvements only and doesn’t impact the official Census count:

“The post-enumeration survey gives us information about how many people were correctly counted in the census or missed or erroneously enumerated. Consistent with our prior practice, we will not be adjusting the census counts for apportionment or redistricting….

…The post-enumeration survey is a probability survey of about 161,000 housing units in about 10,000 blocks across the country that is independent of the census operations

…The PES is one of many different quality measures we have about the census. These 2020 census coverage estimates help us understand the 2020 census quality and will inform our plans for the 2030 census.

It should also be noted for obvious reasons that the Supreme Court outlaws statistical sampling programs like the PES estimates from being used to determine congressional apportionments. From the 1999 decision in DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ET AL. v. UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ET AL

“​​The Census Act prohibits the proposed uses of statistical sampling to determine the population for congressional apportionment purposes…Here, that context is provided by over 200 years during which federal census statutes have uniformly prohibited using statistical sampling for congressional apportionment.”

**********************

Wirepoints plans a deeper dive into the PES results, lawmaker reactions to them and what the findings really mean for Illinois.

For now, know that the politicians using the results to celebrate the state’s “growth” are mistaken.

Read more from Wirepoints:

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Wally
1 year ago

We left IL for SC three months after filling out our IL census forms. Same for three other couples we know. So, eight extra people no longer in IL and eight people not counted in SC. So these numbers are very variable, only a snapshot in time. More accurate are the statistics from moving companies and more significant are the IRS AGI numbers of how much money is leaving IL. I hope Mark and Ted can dig up these numbers. We took a good amount of assets with us, hard to make up for a couple of recent college grads… Read more »

Marie
1 year ago

I’m sure it’s just standard operating procedure. Politicians in Illinois like to “round up” especially when they’re collecting kickbacks and bragging about their accomplishments. Guess they figure it’s worth it if it puts more money in their pockets and makes them look better. Too bad somebody called them on it. Now what are they going to do?

ron
1 year ago

According to the official census, Aurora Il. lost 18,000 in this city alone All the numbers are suspect.

Admin
1 year ago

Pritzker was only in office for 16 months of the ten-year period covered by the new census correction, yet he is trying to say this shows how he turned things around. And there’s nothing whatsoever in the new numbers that says the state was growing during those 16 months, or the two years thereafter, or that it is growing now. All evidence is to the contrary.

Henryk A Kowalczyk
1 year ago

According to Google, the Illinois population in 2020 was 12,812,508, and in 2010 it was 12,830,632. Ted and John, check your numbers. There is a decline of about 18,000. Before bringing PES results as a consolation, one needs to ask what PES results were in 2010. Apples to apples. Lastly, between 2010 and 2020, the population of the United States increased by about 6.5%. God gave Illinois everything it needed to be one of the most prosperous states. It means that we should expect a growth in the population of Illinois to at least match the national average, assuming that… Read more »

Admin
1 year ago

Henry, the 2010 PES showed only negligible changes. However, there is indeed a huge apples to oranges problem going on here. In 2020 IL made a massive effort to ensure the maximum count possible — the biggest effort in the country, Pritzker said. It did not do that in 2010. That effort undoubtedly contributed heavily to a higher count, and there is widespread agreement on that. Pritzker should be commended for running up the count, but he shouldn’t claim that it proves something about the actual numbers.

NB
1 year ago

So in a nut shell, JB and desperate dems from the minuscule PES sampling of 161,000 (which is approx 1.25% of 12.8 million official census #), showing a 1.97% under-count of 3,178 are now trying to apply same %percentage to 12.8 official census #. So theoretically there is some extremely remote statistical possibility total 12.8 million official census could have an under-count of 250,000 but this would be extremely extremely remote possibility with a huge margin for error?

NB
1 year ago
Reply to  NB

Also interesting to watch the press (from crains to st) showing their colors and hopping on the jb/dem machine bandwagon condeming eveyone from trib to ipi…who would have thunk??

Mark
1 year ago

200,000 + illegal crossings per month have to go somewhere

debtsor
1 year ago
Reply to  Mark

They head straight for sanctuary cities with large latin american populations. Chicago is likely high on that list.

Admin
1 year ago
Reply to  Mark

They almost certainly are a big part of the puzzle. IRS has hard numbers out showing the number of IL taxpayers and dependents has shrunk every year since 2010, and last updated in 2019. How can that be reconciled with the new PES estimates from the Census Bureau? Undocumented immigrants are most likely the major part of the answer.

Ex Illini
1 year ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

Exactly. Last time I check the IRS was also a government entity. The numbers need to be reconciled.

Admin
1 year ago

All the IL politicians and media who now cite the undercount numbers might need a reminder that Illinois earlier said there was no undercount. They claimed that 99.9% of Illinoisans were counted: https://wirepoints.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Census-2020-Final-Report-on-Illinois-Self-Response-Rate-12-30-2020.pdf. We will have much more to add about all the nonsense being said.

First and last time reader
1 year ago

Wth is this author talking about lol. Population is how many people actually live in a place-regardless of what the official census says. The bottom line is that over 13 million people actually live in Illinois. There’s no lie in saying that.

debtsor
1 year ago

Hahaha, good one.

Ataraxis
1 year ago

You need a dictionary.

nixit
1 year ago

Let’s say IL did gain 250,000 residents. That’s still less than half the number of just the error made in Texas’ undercount. Not Texas’ total population gain form 2010-20, just the amount that gain was understated.

Everyone is patting themselves on the back for possibly upgrading Illinois’ population change over a decade from stagnant to microscopic gain. I’d have to look at the numbers, but I think Tennessee, a state with about half the population of Illinois, gained more residents overall.

Honest Jerk
1 year ago
Reply to  nixit

I’m in a smaller Tennessee city and there is residential new construction everywhere.

Admin
1 year ago
Reply to  Honest Jerk

I’m in Nashville right now and it feels like a different planet.

Freddy
1 year ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

Problem is that home values in Nashville and surrounding area are up over 30% in one year. Taxes are low just click on some homes on the link and scroll to taxes. $455K home taxes are approx $2800.
https://www.redfin.com/city/13415/TN/Nashville/housing-market
On the news they were talking about a food pantry that could not renew the lease due to developers/investors buying up everything. She could not find anything in the area.

debtsor
1 year ago
Reply to  Freddy

Yes, it’s a huge problem, because the more the market rises, the greater it will fall, and it will. The people will remain but the massive decline in housing prices will destroy and bankrupt many. But it will make for great opportunities for IL residents to leave and find deals.

Last edited 1 year ago by debtsor
Ataraxis
1 year ago
Reply to  debtsor

Nashville has horrendous traffic, too. From my friends who live there, the city has grown too fast and the infrastructure and services have not kept up. If you live in a walkable neighborhood it’s great, but it’s lost a lot of its charm.

Admin
1 year ago
Reply to  Ataraxis

What’s most striking to me about Nashville, where I am at the moment, is how many young people. Downtown is jammed with them, 24/7 it seems. I’ve seen that before in Austin where I used to live, but it was nothing like Nashville. And, man, do they party here. Like 18 hours a day, it seems.

Pat S.
1 year ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

And no riots? Looting? Shootings? Carjacking?

Don’t brag too much about Tennessee – it might encourage migration of the Red Line riders.

debtsor
1 year ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

That’s my fear for Chicago: young people will shun Chicago, and instead, move to hipper places, and the lifeblood of Big Ten grads that generates the city’s prosperity will cease to exist. Chicago has been the Midwest draw for two or three decades now. It might not be the draw anymore. It’s not the unions, or the government jobs, or anything else that generates our incredible prosperity. It’s the flow of big ten grads into Chicago, and outward into the suburbs, that differentiate Chicago’s wealth and prosperity from other cities like Milwaukee, Des Moines, Indy, or Cincy, etc. If that… Read more »

Last edited 1 year ago by debtsor
Ataraxis
1 year ago
Reply to  debtsor

debtsor, that’s an excellent point, and it dovetails nicely with the crime issue and how vibrant a city is. Chicago may not have the buzz factor for a young graduate to move here over a vibrant Sun Belt city. Also, parents of a Big Ten coed may prefer that their daughter moves to a safer city.

debtsor
1 year ago
Reply to  Ataraxis

These big companies aren’t going to up and leave Chicago or IL. They have major footprints and costly infrastructure in IL that would be massively expensive to replace. However, they can, will be and currently are hiring in different locations instead of the Chicago office. Then, as Chicago positions turnover, they will move that position to another location instead. I cannot stress enough that Chicago’s wealth is generated not from uneducated central american immigrants (or eastern european immigrants, other than maybe upper caste Indian immigrants) but instead from the pipeline of college grads, mostly big ten grads or other selective… Read more »

Last edited 1 year ago by debtsor
debtsor
1 year ago
Reply to  Ataraxis

horrendous traffic? it take me 80 minutes to drive from O’hare to downtown at 9 am on any weekend. Add in the rest of my commute and it’s nearly two hours round trip to go downtown.

Ataraxis
1 year ago
Reply to  debtsor

Chicago traffic has always sucked, but for longtime Nashville residents, their horrendous traffic is a fairly new thing, and they don’t like it. All the roads are clogged. I’ve seen the difference just in the past 5 years.

Admin
1 year ago
Reply to  Ataraxis

Ataraxis and the rest of y’all talking about Nashville: You have all raised interesting points which maybe calls or a column by itself. Much of it applies to other destination cities where other IL ex pats have gone. Thanks.

Ataraxis
1 year ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

Isn’t it crazy to experience a vibrant city or region, then come back to Chicago or Illinois?
A stark contrast.
I go to Greenville SC every few weeks and it’s what Evanston should have grown into. I remember the vibrancy Evanston and its downtown had decades ago before it became dirty and dreary.

debtsor
1 year ago
Reply to  nixit

There’s a good possibility those undercounted residents are illegally here from south of the border, and cram two – three families into one residence, in places around the state like Rockford, Joliet, Elgin, Rolling Meadows, Round Lake Beach, Little Village, etc. I made a post on another thread saying I recently visited the suburb of Rolling Meadows and saw how much it had changed from white middle class to solidly hispanic lower class. All of the normal strip mall stores had disappeared, half were vacant, and those that remained were catered to the illegal immigrant crowd like taquerias, cell phone… Read more »

Freddy
1 year ago
Reply to  debtsor

I agree. Many generations living in the same home. This is like it was in the 50’s when many came from Europe. You can tell now how many live in one home by the amount of vehicles in the driveway and street. 4 or 5 cars/trucks parked all the time is common. A few doors away from my rental in Belvidere looks like a used car lot but the association gets on their case. A cop asked me while mowing my rental whose car was parked in front of the house which was the tenants son. It was just a… Read more »

Ataraxis
1 year ago
Reply to  debtsor

Future slums. Can you imagine the living conditions inside these houses?

Honest Jerk
1 year ago

I think we all know the 2030 counts will be much smaller than 2020 and that’s what really matters.

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WIREPOINTS ORIGINAL STORIES

A statewide concern: Illinois’ population decline outpaces neighboring states – Wirepoints on ABC20 Champaign

“We are not in good shape” Wirepoints’ Ted Dabrowski told ABC 20 Champaign during a segment on Illinois’ latest population losses. Illinois was one of just three states to shrink in the 2010-2020 period and has lost another 300,000 people since then. Ted says things need to change. “It’s too expensive to live here, there aren’t enough good jobs and nobody trusts the government anymore. There’s just other places to go where you can be more satisfied.”

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