A new poll by ActiVate shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 58.4% to 41.6% — a 16.8% lead.
That’s about the same margin by which Trump lost the Illinois vote in 2016 and 2020, which was 17.1% and 17%, respectively.
Notably, Trump continues to struggle in suburban areas, trailing by 18% there. Among independents statewide, he trails by 10%. ActiVote’s full breakdown by other categories is below.
The poll is based on a fairly small sample size of 400 and has a relatively large margin of error of 4.9%. ActiVote’s uses an app-based approach to collect polling data, which is different from traditional polling methods.
-Mark Glennon
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
Too many public employees sucking the state dry.
The 52% of Illinois men supporting Harris vs 48% for trump is nonsense. Nationally, this is flipped, with 53% of men supporting Trump to 37% supporting Harris. I think this poll overestimates her support in Illinois by several points. She’s going to win Illinois but at a margin several points smaller than Biden or Clinton’s win of Illinois.
no way Harris is winning in Illinois There is not even 1 harris sign in our town we took our on poll and she did not even get 1%
Chances are you’re a down-stater. If I’m right you need to think in bigger terms conceptually in that large urban populations tend to be Democrat areas, while lower populated towns and rural people tend to be Republican more often. In IL that generally favors the Democrats.
Talk about living in a bubble. I don’t see signs so Harris won’t win. Some people lack critical thinking skills.
Most of this site’s readers are not just from nowhere near Chicago but are also not even residents of Illinois. Very strange audience-building strategy, I must say.
Jonathan, yes, typically from a third to a half of our readers in any given month are from out of state, based on Google Analytics. We are pretty amazed, too, about how many of them seem to be ex-Illinoisans. Commenters seem to be even more concentrated out of state, but commenters are not usually very representative of full readership. I’d be interested in why you think that is so. It’s no strategy on our part. We don’t target them or market to them somehow, though part of why we write is to warn other states about what not to do.… Read more »
That’s because democrats aren’t in a cult. We don’t need sinking boats and “compensation for manhood size” trucks with flags going up and down the street.
No your in a tribe. Far worse as tribalism never survives.
Sadly all it will take is Cook County to put Harris over the top, and there are densely populated collar counties that have turned blue and will definitely favor Harris as well. She’s an imbecile, but she’ll carry Illinois handily. Otherwise Pritzker wouldn’t be campaigning in Nevada and Wisconsin.
This is myth, it’s not Cook County that puts statewide Democrats over the top. It’s the collar counties of Lake, Kendall, Kane, Will and DuPage that swing the election hardcore Democrat. Gov. Rauner won 101 of the 102 counties – losing only Cook in 2014 – and won the election. But Republicans can’t win statewide if the ‘blue wall’ of the collar counties keeps expanding as it has for a full decade now.
It has expanded thanks to madigans far reaching gerrymandering. The dems are not there, the cheating is!
I would not put a sign in my yard because it screams argue with me. You don’t need a sign to make a point.
I agree. Doing otherwise invites roughly half of your neighbors to consider you an enemy without even bothering to get to know you. You’re essentially begging to be an enemy.
The purpose of putting up a Trump yard sign is to scare away Democrats who would otherwise considering moving into the neighborhood.
These pollsters have no credibility
Any surprise that a state chock full of mask wearing, multi- vaxxed, over taxed sheep will still pull the lever for those that put them in their positions in the first place?
You seem unreasonably upset by how other people choose to go about living their lives. Help is available when you’re ready.
Get a life, Jonathan. The truth hurts, but that doesn’t make it any less true.
Because Democrat Chicago out number the whole rest of the state!
Yes and than Sucks because Chicago is not the whole state We have want Chicago annex out for a long time they also get all the state funds
Retards up 16.8 over educated and fed-up voters.
Average Illinois voter complies to “Vote Blue” expectations, and won’t educate themselves on issues, nor acknowledge actual situation in their hometown, county, and state. It’s blind allegiance. They “think” Biden was a great president. They “think” Harris will be okay president, if provided with sufficient high-level staffer guidance, talking points, and teleprompter. (I’ve heard this from several “Dem or die” folks.) They “think” their allegiance belongs to Democratic Party, because that’s what their social-class acquaintances expect of them. Peer pressure, real and perceived, rather than educated choice. Those Vote Blue folks who read limit their reading material to Chicago Trib,… Read more »
I have said it again and again. I have backed it up with Census data. Fewer Whites due to emigration from the state and lower birth rates.
Hispanic and Asian population have increased significantly over the past 30- to 40 years. A less important factor ,but still present, are more and more single women.
Connect the dots.
Definitely not a racist or sexist comment from an equally not racist, certainly not sexist reader of this website.
Trump doing slightly better than 2020. In 2020 he did slightly better than 2016.
By an insignificant margin.
Not insignificant. 41.6 in this poll, 40.6 in 2020, 38.9 in 2016. That’s a difference of 2.7 %. Most of the swing states as well as the national popular vote could easily be decided by less than 2.7 percentage points.
You are correct. Trump has improved every election. Also, the crosstabs in this poll are complete garbage. This fake polls suggests that rural areas in Illinois are 60R/40D which is complete nonsense. That alone is garbage. Rural areas in every midwestern state surrounding Illinois are at a minimum, 75R/25D, and that’s only because of traditionally low R turnout, they’re actually, as many pollsters suggest, 90R/10D if they could just get the votes out. The poll also says that high school educated are 59D/41R. Nationally this is flipped, with 59R/41D, for this poll to even suggest that Illinois’s high school educated… Read more »
https://www.axios.com/local/chicago/2024/10/29/chicago-early-vote-totals Early voting is down in Chicago While Georgia and areas of Texas are breaking early voting records, Chicago’s seeing only about half of the early and mail-in votes recorded by this time in 2020. Why it matters: Robust levels of early voting can suggest high enthusiasm for an election and indicate whether voter turnout will be up overall. Early voting also helps keep election day lines manageable. Context: When it comes to the presidential election, Chicago and Illinois are widely expected to break for Democratic Kamala Harris over Republican Donald Trump, but races for Congress, the state legislature and… Read more »
Then again, when you know your harvested vote will be dumped into the mix at 4 am the day after the election, you don’t have to show up. Welfare recipients aren’t known to expend energy unnecessarily.
Ok, Qtardo.
Lake County residents flock to the polls as early voting expands; ‘I’ve never seen anything like this’ ****** Election judges in Lake Forest and Highwood said they were noticing more young voters, first-time voters and less-frequent voters casting ballots during the first two days. Eva Mazzeno, a judge in Lake Forest, said people in their 40s were registering for the first time. ****** (FYI These people described above are the low propensity Republican voters that the Trump campaign targeted that have been showing up at relatively high numbers in states that report early voting data, they are not new Democrats,… Read more »
I see your point about the national significance. That swing would turn the election. But I was thinking in comparison to other states. Look here at the This Day in History box in the right column. It shows really huge swings in Trump’s favor in swing states. Comparatively, if this poll is right, nothing like that here. https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states
The data points I’ve seen shows a several point rightward swing is happening nationally, not just in swing states. Early voting in Republicans areas, especially in rural areas, are on track to meet or even sometimes exceed their 2020 votes before election day. Meanwhile, the urban Democrat turnout is low in many places, and in Cook County, early voting I read was off quite a bit. And the data I’ve seen the so called buckets of 1/4 – 4/4, which measures low propensity Republicans voters, show them voting in this election after having only voted in 2020, or, never at… Read more »
I agree about the national shift in Trump’s favor, and you may be right about IL. I’m just curious to seem some hard evidence about IL. A shame we don’t have even one major pollster doing IL.
I would guess that one or two of the house seat candidates has some internal data showing this. It’s only kind of showing up in the polling, which has been a mixed bag nationally, with a little shift to Trump overall, which is why the polls are considered ‘even’ today, acknowledging it is very difficult to poll Trump…The early voting data in states that report by affiliation shows a strong, very strong Republican turnout especially in rural areas. They must be having voting parties and social events or something, because I’ve seen data in some rural counties in swing states,… Read more »
In terms of states, it looks to me like PA is absolutely critical. Assuming Trump wins AR, NV, GA, NC (which looks likely) he would still lose if he loses PA, unless he could win either WI or MI (which are toss-ups). To put it another way, Trump must win at least one Blue Wall state (PA, WI, MI).
Yes, this is a correct analysis, and if PA and WI are already in Trump’s column based on early voting and mail in ballot return data provided so far – WI is already Trumps, and PA is certainly strongly trending that way, with PA needing a much higher election day turnout to WI’s Republican votes already banked for Trump. That leaves Kamala with what is described as an inside straight of every other state including the sunbelt, and let’s be honest, after her lackluster hurricane response, GA and NC are very solidly in Trump’s column too. We’ve had mayors lose… Read more »
Just stop complaining. Don’t waste your energy. Either leave the state or stay there and accept your fate. Anything else is a waste.
If you don’t think it is hopeless there in Illinois, look at this poll and compare it to the 23 point list in the article below it. Compare it to the chaos which is Chicago and Illinois. All caused by democrat policies. Yet here are the same mopes lining up to vote for more of the same. Absolutely hopeless.
I will repeat it again. The vast majority of you Chicagoans and Illinoisans like being enslaved. You can’t fix people who are content with being abused.
LIKE. IT’S. THEIR. JOB. Without fail.
The voters of Illinois support Democrats and reject Republicans and the ideas presented by Wirepoints. The people of this state want this government. It’s time to accept that we are getting what we deserve.
Many of them educated by the same broken education system than enslaved them.