By: Matt Rosenberg
Chicago’s growing carjacking problem is a microcosm of what’s gone wrong in the city. Carjackings are more frequent, they are more weaponized, and there are fewer consequences than at almost any time in recent history. A Wirepoints analysis of city data shows that if 2022 year-to-date trends continue, Chicago carjackings will reach a new high this year, at least since 2001.
It appears clear: the City of Chicago’s political leadership does not have the will, the capability, or the competence to tamp down on this insidious crime. Without a major course correction, it spells even deeper trouble for the city.
At its current run-rate, Chicago will hit 1,960 carjackings in 2022 – the highest since at least 2001.* That’s up from a previous high of 1,848 carjackings in 2021 and more than triple the pre-Covid, pre-George Floyd 2019 baseline of 603 carjackings.
Our analysis using the city’s crime database shows that through June 30th of this year, Chicago is running ahead of last year’s record level of carjackings, with 806 in 2022 versus 760 through June 30, 2021.
It’s not only that we’re on pace for a new record. Some 76 percent of Chicago carjackings this year so far have been classified as “aggravated,” another record. Aggravated usually indicates the use of a weapon during a hijacking, although it can mean the victim was older than 60 or carrying a passenger younger than 16.
And while carjacking arrest rates have averaged 10 percent from 2010 through 2021, so far this year they are at a near-record low of 6 percent.
The crime of carjacking in Illinois is known by one of two official terms. Vehicular hijacking is a Class 1 felony and applies when a vehicle is taken by threat of force from a driver, but without a weapon. Aggravated vehicular hijacking, as we’ve noted, refers to a carjacking in which a weapon is used to take a vehicle from its driver, or the victim is disabled, greater than 60 years old, or carrying a passenger less than 16 years old. It is a Class X felony. In contrast, motor vehicle theft is the offense when a vehicle is taken with no driver present.
Minority neighborhoods suffer the brunt of Chicago carjackings worst. By Chicago police district, carjackings have from 2010 to mid-2022 been most prevalent in the 11th, 6th, and 12th districts. These are on the West, South and near Southwest Sides, respectively, and have majority-minority populations.
However, lakefront communities from the Near South Side to the Near North Side – districts 1, 18, and 19 especially – also were hit with far more carjackings in 2021 than in any years since 2010. A case in point is that combined in 2010, Districts 18 and 19 (now including River North, Lincoln Park and Lakeview) had eight carjackings in total, whereas in 2021 they had 103. That’s an increase of almost 13-fold.
As well, in 2021 other formerly safer places saw dramatically higher numbers of carjackings than in 2010. These included District 14 on the Northwest Side (Albany Park); District 22 on the Southwest Side (Morgan Park, Washington Heights, Beverly and Mount Greenwood); and District 24 on the far North Side (Rogers Park and West Ridge).
Other districts with notable jumps in number of carjackings from 2010 to 2021 included the 9th on the near South Side (McKinley Park and Bridgeport); the 4th on the far Southeast Side (Avalon Park, South Chicago, Burnside, South Deering); and the 3rd (Woodlawn, South Shore).
The upshot: Everyone’s feeling carjacking anxiety in Chicago. It’s accentuated further because in several shocking instances in recent years, victims of attempted carjackings have also been slain.
All told, Chicago needs a big turn for the better. So far the best news on crime that Mayor Lori Lightfoot has been able to cite is slight one-year decreases to date in 2022 in homicides and number of shooting incidents, versus the horrific baseline year of 2021. Versus 2019-to-date, though, homicides are still up 29 percent and shooting incidents up 13 percent.
The data on Chicago carjacking through the years, and especially through the first half of 2022, serves as an unfortunate example of what happens when a city becomes “open” for crime, with no real deterrence or consequences in most instances.
Consider today’s disturbing backdrop. A rash of mob attacks on police cars and shootings of and at police in Chicago. Add to that apparent de-policing driven by political hostility to cops. Plus a surge in violent lawlessness on the city’s transit system. Now, factor in ongoing carnage with dozens wounded and killed, as occurred over the July 4th weekend and the two weekends after.
It all points to the failure of Cook County courts and Chicago City Hall to meaningfully curtail violent disorder here.
The common thread uniting many is fear, based on a growing and valid perception of risk on the city’s streets. And few other things bring to life the risks of Chicago like the horrific crime of carjacking, and particularly, armed carjacking.
It is true that you can still spot weekend crowds thronging downtown and Millennium Park, and jamming restaurant row in the West Loop. But on the streets they are hyper-aware, their heads on a swivel. They know they are playing against increasingly risky odds.
It is tragic for Chicago to lose control of its streets in this manner, and for citizens and visitors to have their economic and personal freedoms to enjoy this once-great city so sharply curtailed.
The current state of carjackings and attendant criminal ills in Chicago strongly suggests that the city and Cook County are quite poorly served by their current elected leaders. Among other things, we pay them to keep us safe. And they are failing.
*Based on the June 30 and year-end results for 2021. And, for reporting purposes in this story, we limited our analysis to 2010 going forward. However, publicly available data goes back to 2001. And it shows that the “12-year record” of 1,848 carjackings in 2021 we’re discussing here is actually at least a 22-year record.
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A set of state lawmakers want to extend CPS’ current school closing moratorium to February 1, 2027 – the same year CPS is set to transition to a fully-elected school board. That means schools like Manley High School, with capacity for more than 1,000 students but enrollment of just 78, can’t be closed for anther three years. The school spends $45,000 per student, but just 2.4% of students read at grade level.
Hopefully, all media will get the message, in Illinois, too.
Ted joined Tom Miller of WJPF to talk about Illinois’ highest-in-the-nation property taxes, why lawmakers don’t want to touch the tax’s cost drivers, just how much Illinoisans’ tax burden has grown over the decades, why Gov. Pritzker failed to meet his promise to reform property taxes, and more.
I was in the parking lot of a McDonald’s about two months ago. I shot the would be carjacker three times for his trouble. I fired four rounds at him. I guess I need to go back to the range.
Real improvement will only occur when people vote for it. The Democratic machine is broken and needs to be replaced with one that fights crime, improves education (not more money either!) and reforms the pension system. Fat chance any of that will happen.
Folks, using the term “carjacking” implies racist bias. The new term is “vehicular reparations.”
By the way, my mother had her new car carjacked in February of 1968 on 87th Street near Stoney Island Avenue before it was fashionable.
I was carjacked at gunpoint in Pilsen one morning in June 2021. Four guys in hoodies and masks blocked me in and robbed me at gunpoint. I felt lucky to be alive. Chicago feels anarchic now. You and I are totally on our own. CPD detectives were able to identify two suspects from video, who I identified out of lineups. They did at least 17 armed robberies and carjackings in a 10-hour spree. The detectives told me they arrest the guy who had the gun in my face every month or so. Let that sink in. No jail, nothing. Because… Read more »
I read the litany of neighborhoods in your report, and I remember some of them being very safe. I grew up in the South Shore-South Chicago area, and I knew those neighborhoods got dicey long before I left the Chicago area, but Lake View and Mount Greenwood? From 1988 to 1991, I worked at Illinois Masonic Medical Center as Media Relations Manager. I never feared working late because, at that time, the neighborhood was very safe and had a bustling nightlife. I’m glad I grew up in Chicago, but I am even happier that I left. Many of my friends… Read more »
We live in Police District # 16. A nice young lady was carjacked in our neighborhood with a gun to her neck by two men who were obviously not from our neighborhood. It was the first carjacking in our neighborhood ever, as far as we know, and we’ve been here over 20 years. Your chart shows 9 carjackings in our district, the 2nd fewest of any of the 25 districts.
And yet the people of Chicago vote for this. Why?
No they don’t. It’s election fraud.
The car jackers, gangs and thugs have gotten so cocky and self assured that nothing will happen, that they are bolder than ever. And now Lori Lightfoot is putting all her focus on NASCAR coming to Chicago next year. These are scary times and no one wants to go downtown and enjoy the city anymore. Before a long theres going to be no tourist money coming in during the summer. Chicago’s one of the most beautiful cities architecturally, artistically, and with great location by the lake. Sad state of affairs
Along with all the other sad stuff, there hasn’t been a beautiful building built in decades downtown. The architectural crowd will fawn over some of the recent garbage that’s been built recently, but it’s still garbage.
The City of Small Shoulders,That Doesn’t Work, where More is Less, making No Big Plans.
Excellent data presentation. Chicago is acting more and more like a 21st Century Wild West Territory. Perhaps, it’s time to treat car thieves like horse thieves in the 19th Century.
How many Chicagoans (?) are simply voting with their feet? The situation in that city sounds unbearable. Chicago needs a mayor like NYC’s former mayor Guiliani. He was pro-cop and cleaned up the city. If NYC can elect a Republican mayor (after the truly inept David Dinkins) maybe there is hope for Chicago. But in those days New York was probably more politically diverse than it is now, with a healthy (and teed off) middle class.
Great piece, Matt!
I moved to Chicago in 1978, right after college, thought I had hit the jackpot living in Chicago. A few years ago I moved up to Evanston – as I got older I wanted a bit more quiet; living in Boystown/Wrigleyville was getting more “hectic” than I needed, lol! But through all these years I loved the city, I loved to show it off to visitors (many from overseas, they were astounded by how great a place it was). I loved the museums, parks, ethnic nabes, the Symphony, Opera, theater, cuisine, architecture, shopping, or just getting on a bus or L train and… Read more »
Great write up @GM! Stunning how fast the city devolved. Sadly this is still only first inning. My family came from the South and East sides, they all worked in the steel mills. As these neighborhoods changed, my relatives all hung on as long as they could in the neighborhoods that they grew up in, but all eventually became victims of crime. I left Illinois for North Carolina 2 years ago as I did not want to make the mistake my relatives made and continue to live somewhere I no longer recognized. Just imagine what Chicago will be like after… Read more »
With the failed incompetent leadership of Mayor Lightfoot, State’s Attorney Foxx, Police Superintendent Brown, and Chief of the Circuit Courts Evans, no wonder Chicago has turned into a shitshow.
One word #democrats
Sadly – none of the comments encourage tourists to visit your city. We will be there in the fall during the week staying in the downtown loop . Hopefully there will be no encounters but our expectations are within reason – wish we could carry a concealed weapon on our person. Have friends with family who live in the city and they say it’s fine. Urban cities are urban cities – it comes with the territory.
Comes with the territory ? With an attitude like that, nothing will ever improve. I was born and raised in Chicago and it wasn’t always like that. If voters ever see the light and change their solid Democratic voting patterns, things might indeed change. And no, I’m not delusional, but I think Lori’s administration has brought Chicago close to a breaking point . Maybe voters are ready to turn things around. It can change for the better. It doesn’t have to come with the territory in urban cities. And ai do hope you have a very pleasant, safe stay in… Read more »
Chicago is fine, until it isn’t. The downtown you’re staying in is not as safe as it used to be. Unfortunately, “it comes with the territory” only works when someone else is the crime victim. Stay safe on your visit.
Enjoy your stay — but be HYPER – AWARE of your surroundings… and not just at night, but any time of day. The preying thugs are very brazen, daylight does not deter these cockroaches… they know they can commit mayhem, and there will be no averse consequences for them.
Hey, NASCAR coming. At least they’ll be going too fast to be carjacked ? Gonna turn off the red light cameras for them, Lori ??
Looking at Matt Rosenberg’s reasoned delivery, supported by verifiable citations, a few observations: 1). Individuals act and react to incentives. When tax rates are lowered, tax revenues increase. When rewards are offered, goals are achieved. When laws are not enforced, crime spikes. Stated differently, when laws are removed, crime becomes big business and abundant. The debate about cause and effect can be argued, but there is a correlation about human behavior when incentives are introduced or removed. 2). Apex predators are very smart and very opportunistic. James Q. Wilson’s “Broken Windows Theory” when implemented, bore results. Contrast its removal in… Read more »
It’s horrific that people are voting for the very things that cause havoc and death.
Is there any way to “arrange” for the politicians who created this situation to be carjacked themselves? Oh, never mind–they’d still just double down on woke policies. I’d rarely even heard of the carjacking phenomenon until that serial thug George Floyd, ahem, caused his own death. Time to de-fund Dem-run cities!
Great article. It’s sad to watch a once great city descend into violence. Unfortunately, the people of Chicago continue to elect leaders who are unwilling to address crime in the city.
Hi Guys, and Matt, A couple of winters, when all these carjackings started, I took a morning walk after a snow storm in Edgewater, here on the Northside of Chicago. A few blocks from my unit,. I ran into and ABC Chicago truck, and Diane Pathiue, who is a friend of mine, doing a story. Right away, I asked Diane what was up. She said, a carjacking overnight. I guess three or four in Edgewater, in a short period of time. You kids, maybe 18 or 19 years old, doing the crime. Still a problem here in the city.
the blackhawks got cars jacked at valets in the west loop. https://nypost.com/2022/01/03/blackhawks-players-cars-stolen-in-chicago-valet-robbery/
How many victims are physically injured during an armed carjacking? Do we have statistics?
I think every Chicagoan can unite on this topic, it’s out of control! We need leadership who has the same vision as us, keep law abiding citizens safe and allow the police department to do their jobs. Lightfoot, Supt Brown, Foxx, Kwame Raoul and Pritzker must go!
It’s not just Chicago. At 8:55 pm in Naperville’s central core, far from any crime of convenience off ramp from an expressway, three masked gunmen relieved a gentleman of his vehicle at the Jewel at 1227 Naper Blvd. on July 12. We’re all cook county now. The Safe T Act must be amended to do away with cashless bail!
Thank you for bringing attention to this critically important issue. It defies belief that Chicago’s leaders continue to be asleep at the wheel.
Lightfoot, her cronies, Brown and his staff need to go away. Its time for competency!
I ould not agree more. Everytime I get in my car, I am hyper aware of where my key items are–and often, I drive empty handed because of the possibility of car jacking. and never in the city I once loved. You are correct to hold ELECTED OFFICIALS accountble. Sadly, the most likey potential car jack victims remain unaware of your analyses. Now, Matt–how the heck do you get this info into the hands of those most vulnerable?
We used to enjoy going to Chicago, but not anymore. Until the carjacking problem trends downward drastically, we won’t be going there anytime soon. It’s just not worth it. I have to drive to O’Hare and back to Michigan in a couple of weeks. I’ll be taking the longer way around so as the avoid taking 94 through the city. Are there any data to suggest that out of staters are more or less likely to carjacked? Excellent presentation and summary of the problem and data. Too bad Mayor Lightfoot and her administration are making a bigger and bigger mess… Read more »
My view: Free the security (and law and dispute resolution) markets. Government will not keep us safe.
David, the idea of free-market security provision for communities within a municipality or county that now provides standard police services is provocative. And in my mind at least, worthy of further elaboration and debate. About five Chicago neighborhoods have already hired private firms to patrol. They cannot shoot, and must call CPD when crimes are spotted. There would be issues of authority, training, and central coordination. A lot to be worked out. And yet policing and courts have literally fallen apart in many big cities due to social and political constraints. The main problem in Chicago policing seems to be… Read more »
But will the CPD show up if the private security force calls? Criminals are so emboldened these days I’m not sure if private security makes a difference. Although I support the concept and understand why neighborhoods are doing this, the taxpayers are now paying twice for substandard protection. If you lived in a house with a wall around it in high crime area, you cannot just keep making the wall taller in hopes of being safer. At some point you really need to step back and assess the big picture. The key difference with crime in Chicago the last few… Read more »
Simple solution: Honeypot the perps. Offer what they can’t resist. Chevy Stingray, Ferrari, whatever. Tracking device leads to the hive. Ambush. Game over. No high speed chase required.
Sting operations can yield a lot. I worked in one once long ago.
If you read CWB you’ll notice that the thugs steal many lower end nameplates. They are not chop shop thieves, just joyride and commit another crime thieves.
That is correct. As a result, everybody is at risk, not just those who drive expensive cars.
The second paragraph of Mr. Rosenberg’s fact-filled article says it all: “the City of Chicago’s political leadership does not have the will, the capability, or the competence to tamp down on this insidious crime. Without a major course correction, it spells even deeper trouble for the city.” This is indicative of political indifference, scapegoating, and systemic failure across every level of Chicago’s government. Chicago’s citizens deserve better. Throw the bums out.
They can’t trhow the bums out since Republicans are racist. Therefore the Dems will continue to rule Chicago with an iron fist in favor of crime and against right honorable Godly family living.
I hope the voters of Chicago wake up and see that the current administration (mayor, cook county state’s attorney) are inept and have lost control of the city.
This stuff is going on all over the city, although the most depressed areas have it worse. And so often it’s minors because they won’t be treated as adults and, if they are caught, are soon back on the streets.
Sad to see what is happening to the city I once loved. I guess all I have left are my memories and my prayers that things will change.
It’s becoming more and more difficult for me to recommend reading these factual, data driven accounts. It’s because the facts and data are so depressing. But we must face the facts. The question is begged, what are we going to do about it? The answer is in the hands of the Democrats who elect the people who run everything there. I’m not optimistic because..history.
Matt, great article filled with simple to read data. This is not just a Chicago problem but also a problem in most major cities. We have lost the rule of law in the big cities. When will the electorate figure out they need to change how they vote. Where are the centerist Democrats ?
Thank you, Tom. There appear to be a critical mass of something resembling centrist Democrats in San Francisco, at least among those few registered voters who showed up in the special election Feb. 15 2022 to vote Chesa Boudin out of office as prosecuting attorney. Until a few months prior, the outcome was unimagined. George Gascon may or may not be next in LA, if the recall measure has sufficient signatures to qualify for the ballot. In Illinois there is no statewide provision creating a pathway for recall votes although cities can put their own such measures before voters. This… Read more »
Great article, chock full of stats that support your points. I’m a suburbanite but have been a regular in the city, thoroughly enjoying all it’s amazing attractions. When I recently pointed out to a media person that folks like me are now reluctant to visit based on the current lawlessness, the media person responded that the actual percentage of cars hijacked is very low. Ummm, no sale. Much to my wife’s chagrin, I’ve kept a crappy car for my infrequent trips downtown. Hopefully we’ll see better days.
Until the public votes the Democrats out, not much will change. What’s happening is a nationwide issue in larger cities run by this woke mindset. It’s funded by the likes of Soros (through undermining DAs and the judicial system) and supported by many left-wing organizations. Undermining the police is part of it, too. Cloward-Piven strategy to break a system.
Not enough people are aware of Cloward-Piven, Soros, etc. We will never be able to educate them properly on these subjects but we should try. Making that Soros agenda known might help wake some folks up. The unfortunate reality is too many centrist Democrats (that actually still live in the city) are too busy making a living to do all the research.
Practical solution: an entrepreneurial, for-profit street gang could form to be a more effective deterrent force against the criminal organizations now in full command of streets.
Let the new street gang monetize their work product more effectively than the current ruling mob. Money paid to “protection rackets” would be more cost effective than what is spent today to little avail.
Let the new street gang enjoy parity in treatment by city: no consequences for using force …but yank their operating license if they use lethal force against any other human than those carjackers whom they are paid to target.
call them the Guardian Angels, they were a blessing in NYC in the 80’s
I remember them. They really were a blessing.
More tragic, horrendous info of terrible crimes committed in Chicago. I have just one question: does the top leader ship of the city and the county even care about this?
Chicago has one chance to vote. Vote right and vote for someone who may be able to turn this train wreck around. I suggest Chicago’s only chance is Paul Vallas.
These two sentences from your piece say it all: “It all points to the failure of Cook County courts and Chicago City Hall to meaningfully curtail violent disorder here. “[The people] are quite poorly served by their current elected leaders. Among other things, we pay them to keep us safe. And they are failing.” The elected leaders have failed. Miserably! But so have the people. The people have failed miserably. It is the people who send these creatures into office. The presstocricy in Chicago supports and promotes the current office holders. The print and broadcast media are mostly staffed by… Read more »
Great analysis Matt! The people of Chicago deserve better. Throw the bums out, as we say (at the ballot box). Unfortunately, I suspect more of the same. Lightfoot will be voted out and replaced with a politician who looks different but shares her views on crime and keeping people safe. Kim Foxx is still around and will continue with her catch and release policies. Chicago might be beyond saving unless people wake up.
This is the most glaring stat to date. How can we not feel at least relatively safe, in our own car?! For many years, when I’d drive–almost daily–into rough neighborhoods, my rule of thumb was when stopped at a light in traffic, to leave room between myself and the car in front, so as to make a quick exit if necessary. Never had to make that maneuver, but now it’s just an issue of avoidance…of Chicago as a whole…whenever I can. I love the neighborhoods, I love the restaurants, but not at the expense of my life. And it’s THAT… Read more »
Have to agree, Jay. Very very sadly, it increasingly seems like taking a car into the city is just a non-starter. Why be prey for the predators? Or have to use your piece and end up – quite possibly – embroiled in some horrible court proceeding where the victim suddenly becomes classified as the perpetrator?
We should not get into a Kobayashi Maru position which is a no win scenario test from Star Trek’s The Wrath of Khan movie. Always have a way out when driving and be aware of your surroundings.
There is ONE intersection–southbound on Western Ave. around 18th Street. A big ‘via-dock’ (as Larry Schreiner used to call it) and if you’re in traffic stopped underneath, you’re a sitting duck, man. Otherwise, if my car is accosted, kobayashi or no, I am doing what I have to do to SURVIVE.
I’ve been in the city four times in the last month for business or pleasure. No incidents but really don’t like testing the odds.
Always on my mind when on western or damen over there.
And meanwhile in Chicago three police officers in the month of July have committed suicide. Does anyone think there maybe a problem? It’s not just carjackings. It’s smash and grabs. It’s random gang shootings and people and children getting caught in the middle. One must ask where are those in charge? Where are those who salaries are paid by their citizens? Where are the adults? When is wrong wrong? Why are they not held accountable? Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. How many are let go to repeat the same again and… Read more »
When you remove any consequences, what can you expect…?
Precisely what we are seeing.
Carjackings are a red flag to the overall attitude of criminals in a metro area. If they are willing to brazenly hold you up for your car, being visible to countless bypassers, the entire metro area has been lost to crime.
Agree. It’s a very telling type of crime. If there’s carte blanche for carjackings to happen increasingly, and for well more than nine of ten offenders to go without arrest, you have to look to upper management and then still higher to the bosses of the bosses. Something’s deeply wrong. We’re living under a form of surrender to the criminal class. I can’t read articles about best sidewalk cafes and tapas joints in Chicago any more. I just can’t.
I agree the crime is a bellwether. Reginald Betts – a recent Yale law grad – went to prison at age 16 in Virginia for an armed carjacking. A very bright man, he described his carjacking in his book as one of the most senseless crimes. In most cases, there is no economic gain – and it is an exercise in nihilism. On Betts’ case, he was driven by a 16 year misguided sense of racism, no doubt impacted by an absent father in prison and a racially isolated environment in PG County MD. The senseless nature of the crime… Read more »
That book by Reginald Betts sounds like a must-read. Thanks for surfacing it with that cogent summary. You are spot on: carjacking is an exceedingly serious crime and a city or society being unable to effectively deter its growth is deeply alarming. It is almost a definitional issue really when we stop to consider things. One can be a huge public transit fan (although that is getting far more difficult in Chicago due to, of course, escalating crime on the CTA). But even a transit supporter has to agree that if people do not feel they can drive their cars… Read more »
I read earlier today that a CPD patrol car in pursuit of a car witnessed moments before involved in a murder shooting were ordered to cease the pursuit. If bad guys (and gals) know that the Police cannot pursue then it will sadly fall back to the wild west here.
True ‘dat. Here’s the link, courtesy of the intrepid reporters at CWB Chicago: https://cwbchicago.com/2022/07/chicago-police-supervisor-orders-cops-to-stop-chasing-a-carload-of-murder-suspects-audio.html
What makes the stats even worse is the fact that the total number of people driving around downtown is down significantly. The the car jacks / active car population is even at higher rates.
Excellent article. Lays bare a key fact set (one more many) that corrupt IL pols do not disclose. Almost everything at the political level in ILL is out of control: crime; schools; taxes (#2-3 overall); IL fiscal condition (#51); public union “ownership” of politicians; massive continuing political corruption (#1-3); wild levels of fraudulent unemployment payments; inadequate oversight of key processes such as property tax payments; lack of transparency…etc. etc. …. decade after decade… and our politicians do little about it….cause they are riding a gravy train, and don’t really care about serving non-public union tax payers. Get that public pension… Read more »
80% Of Cook County Carjack Suspects Walk Free – Fox 32 Chicago
88% of murders suspects never investigated.
What percentage of carjackers even get arrested, convicted, and sent to jail?
When I was a teen I drove beaters, these kids get a different nice car any day of the week. Driver’s Ed at CPS must have the highest pass rate of any class.