By: Matt Rosenberg
City data shows total violent crime on Chicago’s transit system is on track to hit a five-year high by year’s end, even with full-year 2022 CTA ridership headed for just half of what it was in 2019.
Full-year projections based on the Oct. 30 year-to-date data show Chicagoans can expect 1,027 violent crimes on the CTA this year – higher, even, than in 2018 when combined rail station entries and bus boardings were double this year’s expected 230 million. We’re talking about homicides, criminal sexual assaults, aggravated assaults, aggravated batteries and robberies. Fewer riders and more crime is a recipe for Chicago’s further decline.
To cut CTA crime and street crime, Chicago needs to re-deploy many more of the 5,500 armed city police officers assigned to non-patrol units.
The city has already lost control of its streets to violence-prone “takeover” crews and carjackers. Now, the CTA’s workhouse north-south Red Line trains – and other CTA train lines – are part of Chicago’s ceaseless Wild West movie. Growing CTA crime has been clearly evident since summer. It tells residents and businesses to leave. To disinvest.
Proposed solutions implemented recently haven’t worked well. Unarmed private security guards have not prevented an uptick in CTA violent crime nor have security cameras or supervised canine patrols. The city in theory could go all-in on uniformed ex-con interrupters of CTA violence, who’ve lately been pressing for funds to scale a demo project to full-time. But a new city budget led to no announcements of that.
Thursday, embattled CTA chief Dorval Carter finally appeared before the Chicago City Council and repeated earlier pledges to tamp down transit crime in Chicago. But more words won’t help the CTA turn the corner on escalating violent crime, either.
Crain’s Chicago Business reported that at the hearing Alderman Brendan Reilly of the 2nd Ward said, “I struggle with the idea” of imposing new city taxes to help pay for a planned Red Line extension because “the system does not properly serve its customers today.” Alderman Harry Osterman, of the 48th Ward, said Carter “has to find a way to deal with the safety issue. That is the absolute ballgame. If the CTA is not safe, people will not take it.”
New five-year highs already this year for CTA criminal sexual assaults, homicides
Based on data through October 30, this year’s projected final total of violent crimes on Chicago’s public transit system would include five-year CTA highs for homicides, criminal sexual assaults, aggravated assaults, and aggravated batteries. In fact, through October 30, criminal sexual assault and homicides on the CTA had already exceeded the full year total in any of the four prior years. Robberies on the CTA would end this year higher than any of the four prior years except 2019.
There were just 2 murders reported on the CTA in 2018, and again in 2019, versus 4 each in 2020 and 2021. So far this year there’ve been 9 murders on the CTA, according to the city’s crime database. The year-end projected total is 11 based on data through October 30.
There’ve already been 20 reported criminal sexual assaults this year on the CTA through October, more than in any of the four prior years. The year-end projected total is 24.
And with 257 aggravated batteries on the CTA through October, the year-end run-rate would be 308, versus 229 last year, and a projected five-year high.
Crime is also getting more violent on the CTA. As a percent of all CTA crimes, violent crime grew from 15 percent in 2018 to 29 percent last year. Based on current-year data through October 30, violent crimes are projected to end this year at 28 percent of all CTA crime.
A parade of shootings, beatings, robberies on CTA trains
It’s those day-to-day violent attacks and robberies on CTA train lines that are making Lyft and Uber an increasingly feasible alternative for those who can afford it.
- In August a man was fatally shot outside the 69th Street Red Line station after an argument.
- Also in August a woman was shot in the knee on the Red Line downtown.
- This month a man was stabbed and robbed at the Red Line’s Clybourn station.
- A victim required medical attention after getting beaten and robbed on the CTA green line this month in downtown Chicago at Adams and Wabash.
- On a North Side Brown Line train a CTA passenger sitting in a seat was suddenly punched in the face by a passing man. She got off the train and went to a hospital.
- CWB Chicago reported in September on a 13-time convicted felon who’d been charged and freed on bail for robbery, theft, and identity theft on CTA trains. Set free before trial for these “minor” charges, he was charged again, with two counts of felony theft for pickpocketing on the CTA.
- And at the end of the CTA’s Blue train in suburban Forest Park, police reported in September they’d become overwhelmed by having to provide services for overdosing or homeless riders.
As CTA crime grows, ridership struggles, far below pre-Covid levels. Total annual ridership on CTA buses and trains reached 468 million in 2018, and stayed on course at 456 million in 2019, but plunged to just less than 200 million in 2020 and 2021. This year it’s on track to reach only 230 million.
A drop in ridership by half may be one of the very things abetting the rise in violent crime on the CTA. Problems are compounded by ongoing service failures that have left passengers repeatedly frustrated by CTA “ghost” trains and buses. Mobile apps and schedules say they’re moments away but often they don’t show at all.
$3.6B Red Line extension a poor bet, without a CTA violent crime fix
Plagued by rising crime and service failures, the agency is finally – after decades of talk and planning – getting ready for a $3.6 billion extension of the Red Line from 95th Street to the city’s southern border at 130th Street. Property owners in a new near-South Side special taxing district will have to contribute almost $1 billion.
But the Red Line extension will be throwing good money after bad without police to deter and arrest, prosecutors willing prosecute, and judges willing to sufficiently sentence the violent criminals plaguing Chicago’s public transit system.
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
What a shame this is. My wife and I once rode the trains quite often and always felt safe. We will not ride them again. The city coddle criminals. They could not care less about crime victims.
After a 3 year hiatus from visiting the loop (we had sold our place on Michigan Avenue six years ago), I planned a dinner for my wife’s birthday in the West Loop area with our son and daughter-in-law, then overnight at a smallish hotel on State Street. Good thing I have trained myself to count shots, even from a dead sleep. About 3 am, 9 shots rang out in front of the hotel, 9 stories directly beneath our room. Chicago is simply not a place to spend time, much less live, if you have a choice. Poor Democrat voters don’t… Read more »
It’s getting harder to sympathize with crime victims in Chicago when they keep electing the same people year after year for decades. I know it’s a one party town but Chicago voted overwhelmingly for the overweight slob in Springfield plus all other state offices. They re-elected Foxx two years ago. They refuse to even consider the opposing party that stands for law and order. They’ve made it crystal clear what their priorities are: Abortion. High taxes. High crime. Businesses closing and moving. Teachers unions over students and school choice. This list of dysfunctional priorities they overwhelmingly vote for are endless.… Read more »
This problem has been building for years. Have had two friends, both older professional women on separate occasions forced to get off a bus in fear. This was near north on Michigan Ave, and the other in the loop. Brazen crazy is out there!
So where along 130th will the Red Line terminate? Probably at the Bishop Ford intersection where there will be a big parking lot for suburbanites and Hoosiers to park their cars and hop the rapid transit downtown. Altgeld Gardens is right next door. Who are we kidding?
That’s why its called diversity, equity, and inclusion. This has been talked about for 40+ years and was a topic of discussion when the old man ran things. Markham, Harvey, Dolton? That ship sailed also over 40 years ago. Where can you park and access rail? The South Shore in Hegewisch. The IC is another option. Metra is in Blue Island and Beverly. No need for the L. Complete and total waste of time and money. So the IC doesn’t make stops east? It makes plenty. Many transit options including bus. Altgeld Gardens residents can use the bus, the IC… Read more »
IF there are no changes to the (so-called) Safe-T-Act by 1/1/23 when it goes into effect, wait until you see next year’s numbers … say about March. Recession + No Law Enforcement = Crime … and both starts with “C” … and both are interchangeable.
It has been over fifteen years since Leona Helmsley died. Her infamously attributed, “We don’t pay taxes: only the little people pay taxes”, has mutated into the ruling class motto with a simple addendum, “We don’t worry about crime (because of our security details); only the little people worry about crime”. And yet, those politicians continue to be sent back to their elected positions to enact yet more inane and by now, insane policies. Stockholm Syndrome has been superseded domestically by the “Chicago Syndrome”. A propensity and proclivity to accept actions not in your best interests. A corollary can be… Read more »
Dorval Carter has never been an operations, maintenance, or security guy. He started to get his liberal bonafides under Harold, then as a young lawyer made a big impression at FTA and CTA. He is a lawyer by trade, and obtaining funding for the agency is his expertise along with his deep Obama connections. Dorval brought in people who were at CTA with him during his 1st and 2nd go around. Now its his third time. Most of these racist hacks were grossly incompetent and forced so many really capable people out. This continues today and the agency is a… Read more »
Let’s face it–the CTA has always had its problems to a certain extent. As a kid, when I used to take the Red Line from Howard to the Loop to meet my working mom for lunch and go to the Chicago Public Library (just to sit in the stacks and read), I’d see the two signs–‘NO SMOKING’ (I understood that), ‘NO SPITTING’, which I could only equate to spitting ON someone! I hadn’t yet seen anyone ‘hawk one up’, not until I was at least 12. But I would ride it, alone at times, from 10 years old on, downtown… Read more »
Eventually the Democrats monopoly on Cook County government will be reduced to fighting among themselves. It has already begun with regard to Black/ Hispanic aldermanic seats. Sit back and enjoy the fight as Dems’ various ethnic tribes fight over declining revenues. Businesses will leave and public pensioners will be paid in script only accepted at limited Cook County locations.
Progressive infighting, and lack of governance, seems to be the norm whenever progressives rule without opposition. Fighting is built into their worldview – that’s why they scream revolution and so on all the time. In foreign countries, the progressives/communists purge their enemies until there are none left. We saw this just the other day in communist China where Xi forcefully removed the former president from a CCP congress and no one has heard from the guy since… In America, progressives fortunately cannot purge their enemies with violence so they’re reduced to political machination and counter-productive infighting.
Ex-Cons for Community and Social Change.
Look up what this group does, however their CTA patrols are just a drop in a bucket.
What this city needs is a change in leadership, but so far, Chicago residents proved only one point: ignorance is a choice.
Besides added police we also need to allow concealed on public transportation including the train system. That plus cameras plus more cops ought to disincentivize carjackers and muggers.
We already have lots and lots of cameras. But if the criminals have any sense– which I do not know — then having some armed passengers seems promising.
How much you wanna bet if the extension is estimated to cost 1 billion and take 3 years, it will come in at 10 billion and take 12 years! The risk isn’t in the crime, the risk is in the fact that Illinois is incapable of building anything anymore. Wisconsin can build 10 miles of highway for every 1/2 mile Illinois builds, and they get those 10 miles done before our 1/2 mile. I’ve seen it first hand driving to our cabin in Manitowish Waters.
The purpose of the extension is to enrich contractors and unions, and to pretend “equity.” If the purpose was really to improve transport, quickly, for people on the far south side, the money would be spent on improving Metra Electric service and reducing Metra fares to CTA levels, with transfers.
What will it take?? What will be the thing that will finally get to the powers that be to fix what is FIXABLE. Years ago, they deployed several cops overtime to play bums on the El trains. It could work again, but only if you give them the OK to really do the job!. It would only take a half dozen times to have the perpetrators figure out, it’s over. We need a mayor that will put them on notice that NO lawsuit will be settled that has to do with resisting arrest. Who has the courage? Are they really… Read more »
The “root cause” (I will promise never to borrow a KamalaHarris line again) of CTA violent crime is the same root cause of 90% of violent crime in cook county – recidivists being released to roam the streets by a Soros funded state’s attorney and George Floyd-inspired “reforms” to the bail system. It’s as simple as that. Let’s not reinvent the wheel! I pray Paul Valas wins in February fir some scant evidence that demonstrate Chicagoans have had enough!
Here, there, everywhere. Yet, the Chicago voters re-elected the same crew responsible for the mayhem, so what can we do?Read the comments on other platforms, and you see we are stuck in a leftist delusion. I don’t see it changing any time soon.
For the life of me I can’t understand why anyone would want to waste billions on a transportation system people aren’t riding.
Right? I only use public transportation while out of town. Haven’t traveled on a CTA bus or train in years.
There are ALWAYS solutions to problems as in our CTA case it depends on the political environment, money situation and determination. These three in line with each other could mesh into a fine running machine, however it’s gonna take alotta compromise and this city doesn’t have it. In this case it’s all about power and this kinda power never works the people they represent only to those who want to weld it.
It starts with family values, respect and a return to treating others as you would like to be treated. But, in the nearer term, the Left Democrats must abandon their reckless destruction of family values, religious beliefs, and return to serving the people that elected them. You are seeing this meltdown in Democrat controlled states and cities. I don’t understand how people can be so hoodwinked into continuing to believe the lies that the Democrats keep repeating.
Great points
Thing is, the dems are “nonplussed” by the rising mayhem and violence – and the sheeple keep voting them in… look at Chicago, NYC, any other dem shitehole… it ain’t gonna get any better…
It’s never been about service for the Left Dems. It’s all about power. You are a pawn in their game, a cog in their wheel. We need to be gremlins In their machine.
As leftist rulers continue their ridiculous policies of celebrating criminals while demonizing law enforcement, the good people of Chicago suffer the consequences in every facet of their lives, including public and private transportation. If the trend continues, Chicago and other large cities will dissolve into zones of anarchy, chaos, murder and mayhem.
Thing is that is their *plan* – they are cheering on the destruction of our civic life…
They already have them in Muslim areas of Paris. They’re called no go zones for short.
My sister-in-laws’ family lives in Oar Park. They use public transportation often when visiting the city. I’ve heard stories!
Instead of making it harder to protect yourself? Why would they not, allow good citizens to conceal carry? That way, people would thing twice?
You might hurt the Illinois Democratic/Socialist/Communist Parties “Sacred Protected class of Criminals.”
Few residents will be brave enough to ride on the Red Line extension besides emboldened criminals.
The Wild Wild West atmosphere in Chicago and of course spreading to the suburbs will not end anytime soon. Having worked as a corrections officer years ago for 10 years, in today’s environment where the criminal has been given control of Illinois by our legislators and justice system we’re doomed unless all law abiding Illinoisans stand up. Current elected officials from top to bottom need to be removed.
That anyone is seriously considering a line extension should be a shock to the system, yet it isn’t. When you have a transit system that is too dangerous for patrons, making it bigger kinda misses the point. A couple of Alderman notice the problem, but……are they addressing it? I realize acknowledgment is the first step to recovery, but surely the step is not to spend other people’s money on a plan that ignores the issue. If only there were events during which citizens could choose new leadership to address problems.
The extension is equitable so it must be completed. And it will create a decades long union building project at prevailing wages.
Unfortunately, things are only going to get worse. You elect the same people that did nothing, and think it’s going to change? We need a miracle in Illinois. Excellent article, Matt.
It’s not just the Red Line that is dangerous. Two of my co – workers commute to our office here in Evanston, taking the Purple Line Express from Wilson north to Davis/Evanston. Both are young and fit, and they both recently decided to carry pepper spray and audio alarms on their commute. They have almost daily stories of mayhem on their short rides on one of the “better” L lines…
Excellent report as always, sir. It’s hard to imagine anyone can claim to care about the good citizens of Chicago and yet turn a blind eye to such rampant lawlessness and even think about extending service without addressing that. A smaller scale version of public transportation crime can be seen in the BART system in the Bay Area of Northern California. After not using it for years I rode it recently and was shocked at the open drug use, frightening altercations, general filth and graffiti, and utter lack of security or police anywhere that I could see.
That’s sad to hear but not surprising. Big-city transit systems seem to mirror the cities themselves with respect to enforcement of the law, and tolerance of crime. I still love SF and walk miles and miles across it but there are times – to and from the airport and under the Bay – that BART is the move. I’ve used it a number of times, and under what-used-to-be-normal circumstances, it was a huge asset to greater SF.
My wife and I are in our early 60s. We were cautioned against taking BART by one of their ambassadors at SFO about a year ago. Said it may be okay to get downtown, but if you get on a car claimed by a homeless person there will likely be a fight. We took Uber. Regarding the CTA, I took groups from overseas downtown from Rosemont on the Blue Line many times about 10 years ago. For the experience. Would never consider that today – would not put them in harms way.
Without the City getting this CTA crime and unreliable service under control, ridership will continue to decrease, and the only people utilizing Chicago public transit will be those who have no other options and the criminals who are hell-bent upon victimizing them. There used to be CTA police officers patrolling the transit system, but of course, law enforcement is very low priority for the current local and state politicians in power. This situation will also get much worse when the oxymoronically-named Safe-T Act takes effect on 1/1/23. If people think Chicago is the Wild West now, just wait another month… Read more »
Great article pointing out more crime. The CTA says that they are short 600 – 700 bus drivers and 100 – 200 train operators (and pardon me for saying, but those are wide margins when it comes to staffing needs). They don’t tell us how many trains and busses don’t run as a result of the staffing shortages. Fewer drivers/operators. Fewer busses/trains. More crime. Matt is dead on when he wrote the CTA needs more police presence, but that has already been promised. Everyone needs to hold the Mayor accountable for statements and promises from 2020 when she promised to… Read more »
Here’s a way to save money on mass transit. Don’t do a thing and crime will continue to escalate, and then nobody will use it and you can close it all down! Voila!
Way to go, Chicago voters! More of the same! Don’t change a thing!
The CTA and the CPD and of course the Politicians fail to realize that the only people who are on CTA property 247 are the Thugs and the helpless riders- No CTA personnel that are making decisions on security and everyday decisions are permanently assigned to the various lines. The Police Detail is at 17th and State and the officers have to commute to and from on all shifts. Imagine the manpower lost in travel time getting to all those lines to offer a semblance of security. The CTA honchos are stationed at the Merchandise Mart and they have no… Read more »
Spare me things have changed dramatically since you worked that detail as officers are now powerless now.
The CTA is a mess, not only with crime but the buses and Els which before Covid, were more or less on time. Now it’s anyone’s guess when or if they come.
But what can you do? This last election cycle shows the people must like this, because they voted for those who seek to maintain it.
Another terrific piece. Thank you for shedding light on these important issues.
3.6 billion? For what? To ask and raise taxes for the good people of Chicago? I’m sure their checkbooks are just burning to write that check. They are reaching their goal of a city in the hands of the criminals. Interesting facts in the rise of various crimes occurring. So let’s look at another four, five years. Where will those numbers be? Who will be the riders? With the election now in the rear view window nothing will change. It will get worse. It’s no longer of the people, by the people, or for the people. It’s now hey the… Read more »
This trend reflects the lawlessness that exists in Chicago itself. CTA riders are basically captive and make for easy pickings for criminals. Until the police force is is fully staffed and the officers hands aren’t tied, this will continue. Chicago is going to hell in a hand basket and those in charge just play the blame game and have no ownership. It’s sad because CTA was a really good way to get around the city. Residents didn’t need to have a car if they chose not to. Now it’s taking their life in their hands to ride. The criminals prevail… Read more »
Why is Matt the only sane person that can produce data and fake news is useless? Why is this not happening in conservative cities and states? I can tell you in Florida 70% conceal carry and soon we will open carry. Until law and order once again are observed Chicago and cities like it will keep descending into Chaos. After all, it’s probably what they deserve. The sane will simply have to move out because I guarantee you the businesses will.
I used to ride public transit all the time. Busses and Els. Would not get on one now to save my life…or let me put that another way…would not get on one BECAUSE I want to save my life. Just another reason to be wary of being in downtown Chicago. Attack someone, rob them or worse…and there are literally no consequences, so why not? Easy money. And the Chicago death spiral continues, while the administration focusses on “circus” events to distract the population (#NASCAR racing in Grant Park — oh yeah…just what the city needs).
I wonder if when going out onto the mean streets of downtown Chicago it would be of any use to always travel in a small group of people, 3, 4, or 5 people. Is violent crime less likely ro occur when there’s a group composed of able bodied men, who can obviously defend themselves? Maybe that’s a partial solution, along with Concealed Carry for those who have the permit.
Good suggestion but if alone be fit, move with authority, and when all else fails make like you are carrying. Or actually carry.
They cannot control the crime, or maintain the now filthy cars and yet an extension? When does reality hit?
when everyone is broke.
Despite common sense calls for improved safety over more construction by a couple Alderman along Red Line, latter will rule the day because is more sexy to bumblecrats Pritzker, Preckwinkle and Lightfoot.
As many of you, I’ve had homes in multiple cities across this great country, and without exception I’ve found that there has been no city more corruption plagued, more devastated by crime or more dangerous to take a stroll. Chicago was far safer when the Chicago Mob ran the show !
Canine Units patrolling the platforms and the train cars would do a world of good and they’re whole lot cheaper than Policemen, pensions and the law suits they incur. Keeping a police dog fed and healthy, about twenty bucks a week. And I can tell you first hand, a leached and muzzled German Shepherd will do miracles …wherever they patrol !
If you’re still commuting to work via the Red Line you’re on your own. My advice is to read Bernie Geotz’s book “NYC Guide for Straphangers.” It’s an old read but the main principles would work here too.
Federal Court has ruled against New York restrictions of concealed carry license holders in most places including on public transit. Wondering why is still restricted in Chicago Illinois.
Better to be judged by 12 than carried by 6.