By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
If Illinois’ out-migration data tells us anything, Mayor Brandon Johnson’s targeting of the rich to fund his city’s big deficits will be counterproductive. Going after them will only force more to leave.
Johnson’s got big budget deficits at the city level, at the Chicago Public Schools and at the Chicago Transit Authority, but since we won’t pursue any spending reforms, he’s looking for billions in fresh income.
“The ultra rich continue to get away with not having to put more skin in the game,” was Johnson’s response to a reporter’s question on how he wants to handle CTA’s cash flow problems. “So we do have to have substantive conversations around revenue streams that challenges the rich in this state to step up in a way that does not continue to place the burden on working people.”
Either Johnson doesn’t understand or he simply doesn’t care. Illinois’ rich have been fleeing the state for years and yet he still wants to target those that remain.
In the highest income bracket that IRS state-to-state migration data tracks – those making more than $200,000 a year – Illinois has netted a loss of people every single year since 2012 (the first year the IRS began reporting state-to-state migration by age and income).
In 2022 alone, Illinois lost 16,363 taxpayers making more than $200,000 to out-migration, but gained only 7,071 from other states. It was one of the biggest losses of the wealthy in the country.
What’s worse, the gap between the number of wealthy taxpayers moving into Illinois and those moving out continues to widen. In all since 2012, Illinois has netted a loss of nearly 60,000 taxpayers making more than $200,000.
The big losses of wealthy Illinoisans also means an ever-growing hit to the state’s tax base. In 2022 alone, the net out-migration of those making more than $200,000 resulted in a net loss of $7 billion in income that could have been taxed (AGI) in Illinois.
In total, a net of over $40 billion in taxable income has been taken from Illinois over the last decade – a significant loss. The impact of those cumulative losses on the state’s budget in 2022 alone? More than $1.5 billion in foregone income tax revenues.
We can also use the IRS data to compare Illinois’ wealth exodus to the rest of the country. We look below at the ratio of how many taxpayers making more than $200,000 move into a state vs. how many it loses.
Take the biggest winner, Florida, with a ratio of 2.74. That means it gained 2.74 taxpayers for every one it lost. For several years now, the Sunshine state has been a massive winner of people and their wealth.
At the far other extreme is Illinois, with a ratio of just 0.43 – the nation’s worst. As mentioned above, in 2022 Illinois’ gained 7,071 taxpayers making more than $200,000, but it lost 16,363 such taxpayers, resulting in that 0.43 ratio.
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Illinois has already lost a net 1.6 million people to other states since 2000. That’s the nation’s third-biggest net loss of residents after only New York and California. And as we’ve written in the past, those net losses have come in every age and income group that the IRS tracks.
The quickest way to speed those losses up? Go after the rich.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- Illinois drives out residents of every age and income group
- Illinois’ 2026 budget: the failure of good intentions
- What’s behind Chicago’s welcome, but belated, drop in crime
- They’ve destroyed jobs and opportunity for black Chicagoans
- Open borders + sanctuary status + free benefits + Gov. Abbott = Chicago population growth
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
Mayor Conehead does not seem to realize that we still have in this country the ability to move about freely without the Governments permission. Keep up driving the rich out and watch the city and the State collapse and the seek Federal assistance. Where do these idiots come from and why are they allowed to be in authority positions?
In 2018, Illinois had 12 suburbs on the list of 100 richest suburbs in the US.
As of 2025, there are only 3 remaining. Kenilworth, Winnetka, and Glencoe.
Capital and jobs are flowing to free states.
Downvote from a Lake Forest resident.
Hey rich Lake Forester, time to work harder if your suburb is slipping in status. Maybe you can get a weekend job bagging groceries at Sunset Foods.
better to step out instead of step up and step in it
It can’t be good for the Illinois economy when the upper-middle class and wealthy are moving out while most of the illegal immigrants may end up staying. To the IL pols, it seems growing the Dem voter base is more important than growing the economy.
If I understand this, the minimum is people leaving making $200K+. So that also includes anyone making well over $200K, $300K, $500K, $1 million, and so on. In other words, doesn’t tell the true scope of how many really rich have left, just $200K+. Would be interesting to see breakdown of even more wealthy groups.
The conversation needs to be on cutting spending or increasing additional revenue like tourism (enter laughter here). The $200K is just an arbitrary figure they came up with so they can get all of their CTU raises in. Tax hikes should not even be in the conversation until Illinois and Chicago learn to balance its budget. It is a downward death spiral right now and it is a dangerous assumption that people will remain here. The chart above tells you people know running a state can be done without raising taxes. It can’t be we take what you make.
Fascinating how the public union shills act like people’s income is their’s to play with for their ever more unearned largesse but God forbid the public unions are ever held to a regional and national standard like is common in the private sector. Absolutely sickening.
Are you itching for a stroke? It seems so.
You are big enough of a stroke for everyone.
Tax Pensions, they are one of the few that do not pay their fair share.
Yes. Tax pensions, IRAs and 401Ks. Enough of these freeloaders not paying their fair share.
Absolutely tax everyone fairly. Everyone should pay taxes no matter who they are. No more freeloaders.
That word “fairly” is the one that ALWAYS creates the battleground for everyone who cares deeply about taxation. Your idea of it definitely won’t appeal to numerous others. Let the battle commence! That’s a treat for those in their rockers watching it unfold, and its especially great entertainment from afar.
Kay, but someday it will be you family pensions as well. IL can’t selectively tax public employee retiree pension, but they can tax all pensions. Be careful what you wish for lest “they” come after your income as well.
Who knows James. Maybe they tax IRA and 401k withdrawals and leave pensions and SS tax free. The whining on this site would be epic.
how a CTU/Barndon politically pass off taxing chumbalones IRA’s & 401ks while leaving pensions & SS alone as EQUITABLE is the hard part for are “new machine” fake progressive left?….but you can bet it’s coming along with graduated income tax/ tax the “ultra-rich” (with no caps), tax every service under the sun, tax, tax, tax, to infinitum…..
I don’t think they should do that WM. My point was more along the lines of the sentiment from James. Be careful what you wish for in Illinois. I do think taxing retirement income should be on the table. There is no reason two retired pensioners who make 300k in household income shouldn’t pay income taxes while a couple raising kids making 50k each should pay $4900 a year in income taxes.
I believe approx avg SS recipient is about $23gs and avg 401k balance is $135gs ($85gs median)…..but somebody’s got to pay master “new machine” grifter CTU/Brandon’s projected $5.5 mil pension payout for being a CPS teacher for 4 yrs….enjoy your $$$$EQUITY$$$$!!!!
Good Idea, give the private sector workers even more incentive to leave the state. The CPS pension fund should invest in UHAUL.
We have increased the income tax by 66%. We have increased several other taxes over the last decade. Yet over 99% of the people stay. The response to all of these high taxes is inelastic. That’s why they do it. They know the average resident won’t make a business decision to leave the state and instead will rely on an emotional response to not wanting to leave their familiar home with friends and family. That’s why all the talk about outmigration and population loss falls on deaf ears. THEY DON”T CARE!
You do not have a clue. Almost everyone I grew up with has left the state. The very few who stayed worked in the public sector, now living on large pensions. I will buy a tank of gas and burn rubber out of town.
How will we survive without you. We have doubled the number of household’s earning 500k or more per year in the last 10 years. We will be just fine. Enjoy your high property insurance rates in Florida Poor Taxpayer. Hurricane season is right around the corner.
We won’t be fine. Among the other reasons why, when over 20% of the budget goes to pensions it’s like Illinois running a race with other states with a 20 pound weight strapped on our neck. That will keep us uncompetitive in quality of services and total tax burden.
Yes. We will pay more in taxes and also be fine. If it ever becomes too much we will elect different leaders that reduce spending. Until then we are fine with all this spending. Probably even increase spending for awhile.
Indiana and Wisconsin tax pensions and IRA’s, altho Wisconsin exempts Social Security and military pensions.
And with statements like that Banjo the ultra rich have movers on speed dial
As people have pointed out countless times on this site, Illinois is already one of the highest taxed states in the country. Why haven’t all of the rich left yet? It’s almost as if people decide to stay or leave on issues other than just taxes. Who knew?
In ten years, IL has lost $40 billion in taxable income. Must be a lot of rich people have left. How many more can IL afford to lose? Remember, when the rich leave, who makes up for the loss?
Illinois has doubled the number of households making more than 500k from 2010 to 2020. It’s almost like our economy will continue without the people that left. This was during a time that income taxes increased 66%. So yes we would have had more taxable revenue if those out migration folks stayed, but we will be fine. South Carolina, in contrast, has far fewer 500k households and has much lower taxable income and they are also fine. They also charge income tax to retirees where Illinois doesn’t. For those of us that saved for a good retirement, those additional income… Read more »
Hate to break it to you, my retirement income in SC is not taxed because I have Roth IRAs. So, I’m still saving $10K+ a year in property taxes, 6% state sales tax, no grocery tax, $.28/gal on gas ($.48/ gal in IL coming 7/1). Unfortunately, I still have an IL cell phone number and pay a much higher phone tax, but small price to pay for all the other lower taxes.
You shouldn’t hate to break it to me. I’m glad you don’t pay taxes on your Roth. People who have standard 401ks or pensions pay tax in SC. That wouldn’t work for the rest of us. It cost everyone else more. SC is not a good deal for those people. I would end up paying 16 to 18k in income taxes a year and that’s before any RMDs. Almost as if people have different circumstances. Your 10k savings wouldn’t be enough.
The exodus from Illinois is still rather gradual. When the population loss is at a critical level (however “critical level” is defined), many of the current pols will nearly retired, retired, or dead, which is why they don’t care much about what is happening. It’s textbook “kick the can” mentality.
Eventually all those illegal immigrants (who have more offspring than native born citizens) will help increase the population of Illinois. So we got that going for us.
Left IL. Now IN benefits from our taxes, which are lower here.
Meanwhile, because all these high earners are moving to SC, including businesses, it has cut the state income tax, lowered local property taxes, and projects a $2 billion surplus in 2025. Laughing, yet sorry, for those stuck in IL.
No they don’t. You are repeating a lie.
https://www.wyff4.com/article/south-carolina-missing-billion-dollars-update/63436051?utm_source=chatgpt.com
I’m surprised you’re falling for fake news. That report is from January, 2025 and regards the 2024 budget. Here is the story on the 2025 budget
https://www.wltx.com/article/news/state/south-carolina-budget-passes-house-of-representatives/101-cf8a9fb5-22f5-49ea-86a3-f6446199524b
”South Carolina’s population growth in recent years has contributed to a budget surplus of more than $1.8 billion which has lawmakers pushing for infrastructure upgrades, tax cuts, and teacher pay raises.” May 28, 2025
You’re surprised PPF is falling for fake news?!?
I’m surprised you’re surprised.
@Wally I spend a lot of time in SC for business and to visit family. If that place is thriving, they’re doing a good job of hiding it.
You’re right. A much larger percentage of high income people live in Illinois compared to South Carolina.
As long as SC is drawing $200K+ residents and IL is losing them and drawing low income illegals, the long term odds favor SC.
Our property taxes have gone down every year since 2021, granted only about $15/year, but DOWN. We have a larger house and more land than we did in IL and $10K less in property taxes. That’s thriving enough for me.
Agree with the spirit of this but is $200k a year really “wealthy”?
Not wealthy but only about 3% of Illinois households make 200k or more.
13% not 3%.
That’s a larger % than I had presumed—only slightly better than 1 of every 8 households. So, my take is that such families are better considered “well off” rather than wealthy, a much steeper hill only a far smaller % of households can climb with consistency.
That’s the sticky point, isn’t it? Someone who has a higher income than you generally you’d consider wealthy presumably. But, such person always knows somebody else with even an another income. So, wealthy is a very malleable term, isn’t it? The “wealthy” person often doesn’t see himself that way.
google AI has Illinois household (not individual) median income at $81,702 / average income at $112,993
Google AI also shows that the top 10% of households earn 279k per year.
Agreed – $200,000 is a somewhat unspectacular income. Might as well tell us what single-car families are doing.
I’d be more interested in what the $500,000+ households are deciding.
Why not tax Pritzker’s NGOs?…Well???
The irony in the Leftist Democrats ongoing destruction of IL – Nearly ALL of it for the continued unearned largesse for the public unions. Just think about it – any form of rational moderation by Leftist Democrats would have resulted in dramatically better economics for IL, but they don’t care. They are like junkies.
Spot on Ted. There’s a good reason that nobody in Ken Griffins league currently lives in Detroit and soon to be in Chicago.
One can only wonder what the % of Illinois households making over $200,000 that are still left are public sector hero households?
All public school superintendents.
You can bet that’s where all the growth is.
And, if you figured public sector heroes total package (i.e. salary + OT + health + pension) you got a lot of folks bring home over $200gs a yr.
Of course. That’s why Brandon can’t get it passed.