By: Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner
A review of U.S. Census population data since 2020, including fresh 2024 data released this week, reveals a perfect demographic storm that’s likely to worsen Illinois’ downward spiral.
Illinois has experienced from 2020 to 2024 the nation’s worst collapse in youth aged 18 and under; the 6th-worst drop in working age residents; and a jump in the elderly’s share of population. All three in combination foreshadow a vicious cycle of higher taxes and taxpayer flight, leading to even higher taxes and more population decline.
The demographic challenges above are piling up on top of a slew of other damaging population data released recently.
Illinois’ population loss of nearly 110,000 since 2020 is the nation’s 3rd worst. Only a spike in illegal immigration the last two years has been able to temporarily slow the state’s population decline. And the state has been chasing out its wealthy residents in exchange for incomers who make far less.
The overall population results of the last four years show why Illinois needs an absolute flip of its politics and policy.
Here’s what the latest demographic data shows for Illinois:
Nation’s worst drop in number of residents age 18 and under. Illinois had 184,000 fewer residents aged 18 and under in 2024 vs 2020. That’s a 6% drop, the biggest percentage loss in the country.
To be sure, much of Illinois’ decline can be attributed to the national trend of declining births. In all, just 11 states increased their youth population over the same period. But having the worst decline shows Illinois is in special trouble. Every one of Illinois’ neighbors had a far smaller decline than we did.
Florida, in contrast, had its age 18 and under population grow by 5.5%, or nearly 250,000, over the same period.
Nation’s 6th-worst drop in working-age residents. Illinois needs a massive growth in its tax base to change its current trajectory from ever-higher taxes to actual tax relief. Not to mention it needs more productive workers to spread out the cost of its nation’s-highest pension debt.
Unfortunately, over the last four years Illinois lost 146,000 18-64 working age residents. That’s a decline of 2%, the 6th-worst change in the country.
Texas and Florida show the power of attracting workers from other states to drive their economies. In just four years Florida added 950,000 working-age residents and Texas, 1.3 million.
Seniors growing as a share of population. Compounding the demographic problems mentioned above is a significant 225,000 increase in Illinois’ number of senior citizens. With the young and working-age brackets in decline, seniors now make up 18% of the population, up from 16% four years before. As a result, the tax base will be under even bigger pressure.
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Count on the bad news to keep coming. There’s zero indication that the state’s current leadership plans to reverse course on the policies that have gotten Illinois into this mess.
Appendix.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- New Illinois law makes it tougher for voters to block school district borrowings/tax hikes. Effingham good example.
- What New York City’s near-bankruptcy can teach Chicagoans…attend “Drop Dead City” documentary screening on July 1
- One reason, in one image, for Chicago’s apartment shortage and high rents
- How to destroy a state: swap out the wealthy for illegal immigrants
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
Why am I not surprised that a state which positively encourages killing unborn children is losing children and young people in droves?
The music will officially stop when Springfield decides to start taxing that growing senior retirement income.
They should. The state needs the money and retirees should pay their fair share.
The youth are the future of America, not of Illinois. You reap what you sow. Let the old pay all the taxes needed to support the pensions. The only kids staying in Illinois live in their parents’ basement, play video games and smoke legal pot all day. Best of luck collecting any income taxes from them.
With the decline in student population , close 6% of the schools and reduce 6% of the school employment
Add this to JB’s many achievements. Whatta guy! Doesn’t it make us all wonder why a billionaire would tear out toilets in his mansion to make it uninhabitable thusly reducing his tax obligation? Then he is announcing his run for the third term as governor of Illinois with a $350 million campaign fund. Is that what he saved in taxes by tearing out toilets?
It’s like that old small town. Kid goes to college. Gets a degree. The old town is nostalgic but offers little beyond that to decide to live there. Add to that the “leadership” of JB the Hutt and his Gerrymandered-into-office political animals and Illinois becomes a wholly unattractive place to live.
The good news….with the influx of illegals, the birth rate should climb and our future under 18 demographic should grow. Today’s illegals are providing future legal citizens. No matter what trump says, these people will be citizens when born here.
Even better news- they will eschew/ demolish the unions and eventually all those pension funds will dry up and blow away. Look as to how empty the collection plate is in heavily Hispanic churches and how private schools tied to churches are continuously begging for money / sponsorships to keep the doors open for the first example. Good times on the horizon!
Low wage earners drawing more from the system than contributing. The end of all this nonsense can’t come fast enough.
Yes, it’s amazing to watch people cheerlead for their competitors at the public trough. And working to create more competitors by the destruction of public education.
It’s almost like they don’t understand math.
Loser PPF. Posting all day on Wirepoints because he has no life. Loser PPF. Lying about not getting a public pension when he posts all day defending public pensions which would make him a even bigger loser if he didn’t have one. A huge liar. Loser PPF gets a public pension. Loser PPF. Spamming this site day and night because he has no life, and yet math will win in the end and his pension will be cut in the end. Loser PPF. I moved years ago and won’t pay anything towards your pension when it is cut, but I… Read more »
I always know I’ve won the argument when the other side resorts to name calling.
Now, now. No need to be abusive. All voices should be welcome here.
Mr./Mrs./Ms. state retiree is actually often correct about how Illinois’ political animals codified unaffordable pension guarantees into the state Constitution. He/She/They/Them need fear nothing, as, in the (likely) event of a default, the PBGC will step in to ensure that our state ‘leaders’ get their stacked six figure pensions right on time.
That we didn’t choose the career path of High School Superintendent or other highly compensated and pensioned government positions is on us. Don’t blame PPF for our folly.
Best of luck with that plan. The young is who pays the most taxes and create new jobs. They are fleeing the state in record numbers. The poor immigrant is a drain on the state right now, though that will change sometime in the future.
45 to 64 year olds pay most of the taxes. You are consistently wrong in your assertions.
You sure know how to ignore statistical facts such as highest property taxes, population loss, enormous pension debt, loss of millions in AGI according to IRS, and college youths leaving IL. Of course, lot of IL residents have same blinders on. Do you really believe the rosy stuff you post, like pensions will always be paid?
The supreme court just ruled that anchor babies are not citizens just because they are born in the US. Their parents must be citizens first.
They made no such ruling. I wonder if some of you have any ability to read and comprehend. It’s quite sad.
You win the moron of the day for your comment. Don’t worry, someone shall soon come along to top you.
Trump’s Executive order stands like it or not.
Not yet and not in all jurisdictions. Try reading past a headline and maybe you’ll learn something. Currently 22 states still have the injunction in place. The ruling stopped federal judges from issuing injunctions nationwide but they didn’t stop the injunctions that were issued for the plaintiffs. SCOTUS also put a 30 day hold on it. During this time you will see others file lawsuit and get injunctions all across the country. I’m fine with getting rid of it but the chances of it standing are miniscule. Get back to me after July 27th and let me know if it… Read more »
Even illegals don’t want to be in Illinois. All of them view it as temporary until they get on their feet.
One point that needs to be focused on is that retirement income is not taxed in Illinois. Imagine making $100,000 and not paying taxes Oh I forgot there are 9 states where that is the case.
Tax the billionaire-bro’s adult diapers to end the systemic legacy of community disinvestment!!!!….(and fund brando’s $5.5 mil pension)
Can’t. The Hutt’s considerable wealth is largely offshored.
You left out the significant percentage of residents that are illegally present and doing jobs that citizens used to do.
No surprise here. Young people and families are moving out of Illinois to avoid the excessive taxation. Florida is number one because of low taxes and a much higher quality of life, spring and summer year-round. The best thing anyone can do for their wallets is to move out of Illinois. The excessive costs of the public sector are the root cause. All the money in the world is not enough for them.
The problem for me at least is not wanting to live in a climate that’s HOT all year long in at least the lower 2/3 of FL, TX and AZ. You may better tolerate or even appreciate such a climate, of course.
You get used to it. A/C works wonders too. You also get used to competent state governance, in Florida anyway.
You don’t appreciate the relief of not having to look out the window at 4am to see how high the snow is, plow out your driveway, and spend an extra 45 minutes getting to work. Can’t count how many times it snowed during rush hours. The Valentines Day storm my wife spent in a hotel because she couldn’t get over a snowed in bridge and stayed in a hotel. The big storm where we couldn’t get to my parents house because they couldn’t plow their cul de sac for three days. Or a golf outing about 12 years ago in… Read more »
Sorry, it was 1995, 30 years ago, where over 700 people died of heat related deaths in Chicago.
Yep. I remember the LaGrou refrigerator trucks all lined up as temporary storage for the morgue.
Most of the decent jobs in CI are government(city, township, county, some state and federal) and healthcare (quasi govt) and those suppliers. The Leftist Democrats and out of state union bosses (Democrat minions) have done everything in their power to run most manufacturing out of state. When family visit and we go to the market, invariably they comment ‘Wow! Everyone looks so old here.’ That’s a sure sign of a dying community that isn’t a retirement destination. Look on YouTube, and IL leads in ‘urban prairie’. Most young people leave when they go to college to get a good affordable… Read more »
Why would young people with a future stay in IL with Pritzker and the Democrats continue to tax the taxpayers into poverty to fund far left policies and special interest groups? They overtax businesses so that they leave. Hard to get into IL colleges due to preferential admission due to DEI and college preference for foreign students. This is not a surprise.
Smart kids. Why stay here and be taxed to death
Another nail in the coffin for Illinois.