By: Matt Rosenberg
The term “mass incarceration” has been weaponized in Illinois, Cook County, Chicago, and nationwide. It is used as a cudgel to try to beat down any support for meaningful punishment for violent crime. It is meant to support an ongoing – and increasingly successful – push in major metro regions for “decarceration” and rehabilitation. Even for repeat gun law offenders and violent criminals. “Mass incarceration” is also meant to evoke the notion of a criminal justice system imprisoning Americans indiscriminately, in service to a “prison-industrial” complex.
There’s just one problem.
In Illinois the incarcerated are less than six-tenths of one percent of the adult population. Nationally in 2019, eight-tenths of one percent of the adult population was incarcerated. That includes all major venues: local, state, and federal jails or prisons.
There’s more.
When the “community supervision” population of those on parole or probation is added in, “mass incarceration” grows to still less than 2 percent in Illinois.
Finally, there are attempts to claim blacks are incarcerated “disparately.” But this is based on a flimsy construct that unequal outcomes by race suggest a racist hand on the scales. And notably, 98 percent of adult blacks in Illinois were not incarcerated in 2019.
The Illinois and nationwide general incarceration rate data come from an annual series of reports called “Correctional Populations In The United States,” compiled by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) of The U.S. Department of Justice. In those reports they are expressed as a rate per 100,000 population. We have converted those rates to percentages.
And the numbers have continued to drop over recent years. Over the seven year-span from 2013 through 2019 for which we analyzed the data, incarceration rates have dropped from seven-tenths of one percent to less than six-tenths of one percent in Illinois, and from nine-tenths of one percent to eight-tenths of one percent nationwide.
Comparable federal data covering the entire incarcerated population for 2020 and 2021 are not finalized and issued yet. But preliminary indicators are – in some part due to health concerns raised by the COVID pandemic – that the numbers will be lower still, both in Illinois and for the nation as a whole. The trend was well underway before COVID.
Yet at the same time, many major metro regions are beset with sharp increases in certain types of violent and property crimes. In 2021, Chicago Police Department data showed that versus in 2019, shooting incidents were up 67 percent, and murders 61 percent. Carjackings over the full year of 2021 were up 204 percent in Chicago versus 2019. The insane outlier known as expressway shootings jumped in Cook County from 51 in 2019 to 273 in 2021, according to an Illinois State Police dashboard. Reported violent crimes on Chicago’s transit system were up nearly 40 percent in 2021 versus 2015.
Nonetheless, key Cook County officials have continued to push a social justice transformation of criminal justice.
Cook County Chief Judge Tim Evans in 2017 instituted no-cash or low-cash bail for charged violent and gun offenders and then fudged data on related recidivism. Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx dropped thousands more prosecutions than her predecessor. Now she’s attacking “over incarceration” and seeking to shorten sentences of imprisoned violent criminals. Supporting her initiative are an Illinois criminal justice reform NGO head and a local law professor who attacked “mass incarceration” four times in one op-ed.
We’ve already noted that actual reported incarceration rates in 2019 were less than one percent of the adult population in both Illinois and nationwide. So, again, there is no such thing as ”mass incarceration” or “over incarceration.”
But what if you add in the adult population that’s under “community supervision”? That refers to those on probation or parole. In that case, the numbers grow a little bit. But not to anything approaching “mass” dimensions.
In Illinois in 2019, the “supervised” adult population rate was 1,220 per 100,000, or 1.2 percent. Combined with the incarcerated adult population rate of 560 per 100,000, that means the total adult “correctional population” – as BJS calls it – was 1,780 per 100,000.
Rounded up, that’s 1.8 percent. Not altogether nothing. But hardly mass incarceration.
Nationwide in 2019, the adult correctional population was higher, at two-and-a-half percent, or a rate of 2,520 per 100,000 adults.
Looking at incarceration by race in Illinois
Data on incarceration by race is often used to suggest that related decisions may often be made with intent that is either consciously or unconsciously racist. A key part of this argument is what are called “racial disparities.”
We already know that in 2019 the statewide incarceration rate was almost six-tenths of one percent. Using additional BJS and Census data* for 2019 we calculated adult incarceration rates for Illinois by race. Those 2019 adult incarceration rates for Illinois are 2.16 percent for blacks, 0.48 percent for Latinos, 0.28 percent for whites, and 0.04 percent for Asians.
So the incarceration rate for blacks was more than seven times that of whites, more than four times that of Latinos, and greatly higher than that of Asians – who are clearly an outlier by having such a low rate. Yet, the rate for whites is also greatly higher than that for Asians. No one would say society favors Asians over whites. All of this is to say that concern about “disparate outcomes” are not inherent proof of malevolence. Disparate humans and distinct population cohorts may make disparate decisions and pursue disparate paths. This accounts for much of what are termed “disparities.”
In Chicago, for instance, although blacks are only 29.2 percent of the population, they were 80 percent of murder victims in 2019, 2018 and 2017, according to annual police reports. And in the 21 years between 1991 through 2011 where murder perpetrators were identified, they were more than 70 percent of known perps in each of those years except one, according to the CPD report “Chicago Murder Analysis” (p. 38).
Meanwhile, the beat goes on. At the end of Week 13 of 2022, Chicago Police Department summary data show that versus the same period in the last pre-Covid year of 2019, shooting incidents were up 53 percent, murders 68 percent, motor vehicle thefts 56 percent and robberies 13 percent, and major crimes 12 percent.
Compared to the same span in 2021, the 2022 year-to-date data were not encouraging, either. Although murders and shooting incidents were down six and 11 percent versus a year ago to this point, but overall major crimes are up 36 percent compared to 2021. Motor vehicle thefts are up 43 percent, thefts 70 percent, and burglary 36 percent.
It’s clear what’s the current purpose in Cook County of the rhetoric of “over incarceration” and “mass incarceration.” It is to weaken – in pursuit of a race-driven agenda of decarceration – a criminal justice system which has little to no deterrent effect against a continuing wave of crime which sprung loose in 2020 and hasn’t stopped yet.
Even allowing for alternative sentencing and second chances where appropriate, it seems entirely plausible the real problem is “under incarceration.”
*BJS’s Census of Jails (p. 18) and BJS’s “Prisoners In 2019” report (p. 36) together provide data which adds up to the total number of incarcerated adults in Illinois by race in 2019. Meanwhile, the Annie Casey Foundation has crunched U.S. Census data for 2019 on total adult population in Illinois, by race. We have included the totals for whites, blacks, Latinos, Asians, and all races combined.
Matt Rosenberg is senior editor of Wirepoints, and author of What Next, Chicago? Notes of a Pissed-Off Native Son.” He has worked in journalism, public policy, and communications for more than three decades.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- New Census release: 81 of Illinois’ 102 counties lost population in 2021, Cook County lost the 3rd-most nationwide
- As the folly of Illinois’ new energy law becomes evident, a ray of hope breaks through
- What Illinois incompetence looks like: the state’s unemployment insurance fiasco
- A stunning miscalculation: CDC cuts nation’s reported child COVID deaths by nearly 25 percent
- Leaving Illinois: Another wealthy Chicago entrepreneur “votes with his feet”
- 2021 Census numbers are horrible for Illinois: Population decline second worst in country, behind only New York
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
Chicago/Illinois is going to go the way of Detroit if this continues.
“America’s Original Sin was not slavery. It was using race for power.” ~ Shelby Steele
They’re still doing it. Pushing the Mass Incarnation myth/fraud/lie does nothing to uplift poor, crime filled minority neighborhoods. Nor does it uplift blacks. It only serves those in power. People in power profit. People in poverty remain there. The cycle continues….
The media is part of this problem. They take whatever they hear from people like Kim Foxx and Tim Evans and report it as it is fact. They are making Chicago and Illinois less safe. I used to take the train into Chicago every other Saturday morning from April until November and make the 3.3 mile walk to the museum campus, and then head to the Loop for lunch. I haven’t done this in three years because I do not feel safe walking in Chicago.
The concept of mass incarceration is a myth. It disturbs me that we have so many politicians who devote so much effort pandering to the criminal element and their families. Illinois and Chicago pols pander. Here in California, they do the same. Our cities are unsafe. The “prison abolitionist” movement will make it worse. Here’s the bottom line: Cities that pander the most are the most crime ridden. We all know that. We know what areas to avoid. And we do. We do not shop there; we do not dine there. None of our money is spent there. We want to stay… Read more »
I’ve often wondered why Illinois law enforcement officers spend so much time arresting people for crimes that result in little or no punishment. You know, felon in possession of a firearm, battery, assault, domestic abuse, burglary, robbery, mob action – to say nothing of drug offenses, failing to appear for court hearings, theft and fraud. One of my jobs while working for the state was making sure that people who were paid (by taxpayers thru Medicaid) to assist the disabled in their homes were actually working the shifts they were paid for. We’d often check the publicly available jail records… Read more »
Listing these rates as a percentage is misleading. Yes .6 percent seems small, but it’s still the highest incarceration rate in the world. The US and Canada have similar justice systems, but the US locks up 6x more people.
The real issue in the United States is one of Poverty. The poor and under-educated are more likely to commit crimes. The complete lack of social safety combined with low pay are a huge hinderance. Add the cost of medical care and you end up with a broken society.
“The poor and under-educated are more likely to commit crimes.” Now do India and China, both with high poverty rates but very low crime rates. In America, there is a correlation between high crime and poverty, but correlation is not causation. The crime rate in America for white people alone is roughly comparable to most western European countries. This includes poor white people of which there are more poor white people in poverty than any other race. America has an underclass of criminals that glorifies criminality. That’s why we incarcerate so many people. The reasons for this is complicated and… Read more »
That’s a canard – clearly addressing “poverty” hasn’t helped one bit since The Great Society beginning. Made things worse. See Thomas Sowell. https://www.pennlive.com/opinion/2015/05/poor_blacks_looking_for_someon.html
If we’re going to break down incarceration by race we also need to note victims of crime by race. You do that here in this article.
I guess I get no reply huh Matt
Great article Matt,wirepoints should show the stats of overall crime in this country according to race.If im not mistaken,the black population is roughly %20 of the country but commit around %52 of all crime,that has a lot to do with who is incarcerated?
Thee Jabroni, sorry I missed your comment earlier. Appreciate that including your suggestion on future data to surface. Good idea. There will be occasions to meld some of that BJS data to which you are referring into our future coverage. Absolutely.
thank u matt
Thank you for this analysis.
You’re welcome. We had to piece it together, but it’s out there.
Thanks Matt. This is new information to me, and I was a little surprised by the data.
I knew it would be close to what we found, but wasn’t sure exactly what we’d see, especially with the “supervised” population added in. There are ways to make the percentages a bit lower still by looking at incarceration and supervision rates for the all-ages population of Illinois and the U.S. But I think that adult population is the more defensible choice. The incarcerated are numerically a blip on the screen but one big question – for another time – is okay, what really works to bring recidivism down further? I got to meet some guys on the South Side… Read more »
I’ve often wondered about this argument that suggests we are indiscriminately locking up our adult population in the US, or worse, discriminating against certain portions of the population and locking them up. These stats seem to suggest this argument without merit and I can’t say I’m terribly surprised. The next step in this very good analysis, given that crime rates are rising and the jailing of the adult population is falling, would be to overlay recidivism rates and determine whether, and how much, the freeing of offenders is driving crime rates up
Correct. Recidivism data are key. The numbers sometimes get fudged by nabobs. Right now there is certainly piecemeal evidence of repeated recidivism within Cook County. Often reported – of course – by CWB Chicago. A broader public-facing database would be good – showing outcomes in Cook County courtrooms by judge and prosecutor, and with prior criminal and sentencing histories of defendants, shown. Statewide data on actual sentencing outcomes by crime category, versus allowable sentencing ranges – plus actual lengths of sentences served – would also be helpful. Transparency remains the enemy of officialdom and opacity part of their power-hoarding toolkit.… Read more »
None of the progressive policies are justified by actual statistics and outcomes. The entire paradigm of disparate outcomes due to racism is only a cover for the failure of 60 years of the Great Society.
And. When you get down into the deep South Side of Chicago and talk to people about the path forward, what you hear is…..what you just said. Common sense doesn’t have a color.
Mass incarceration is just a different way of playing the world famous “Race Card”, dont leave home without it.
Excellent article Matt. When you examine the absolute numbers it is clear there isn’t mass incarceration of any race. Even the total number of all people incarcerated doesn’t constitute anything but the smallest blip relative to the overall population. The social justice warriors don’t want anyone in prison. Unfortunately humans are a flawed species, and there are some people that just can’t behave in society. It’s time to stop the insanity and hold violent offenders accountable, regardless of race. Law abiding citizens are increasingly finding themselves at risk as out of control violence spreads.
Thanks. That whole “managed outcomes” paradigm is embedded deeply in our colleges and universities. “Disparities” theory and “disproportionality” theory being two prime tools used to seize the conversation away from personal decisions, parenting, and family. Decisions come back into the picture only as something to be influenced by the state, in loco parentis.
Hey Matt, great article, numbers don’t lie. What is truly disheartening is how even black politicians peddle the victim narrative, and instead of marshaling resources and opportunities for young people, they unleash violent sociopaths on the street to terrorize their own people that they say the “care” so much about. The disparities of convictions is real however, and it’s due more to poverty than race. You don’t have to lie and say race doesn’t play a part. Even black judges and cops hammer black perps harder. Everyone knows this. I see city lots available for a dollar, I see abandoned… Read more »
I remember a baseball all star game years ago where the announcers were lamenting the drop off in young black players in MLB. Nothing was said that between the two dugouts in that game, there was probably one billion dollars in salary collectively paid to the black players represented. How many of those players built a simple ball field in a black neighborhood or made any other type of meaningful investment to better the lives of their people? I know that some have, but I’m guessing most have not, otherwise it would have been widely publicized.
Ka-ching. Nailed it on all counts, Rob. Opportunity has to grow in ghost neighborhoods and each alderman, Congressman, and county board member with should appoint themselves a de facto local economic development director. Harness and scale the power of community development corporations, for one thing. There’s a great re-entry program by another name in Pullman, run by the Chicago Neighborhoods Initiative, and a guy named David Doig. Among their many efforts, they have a a micro-lending program to seed local small businesses. More than a few ex-convicts participate. Often, they buy Sprinter vans and start their own package delivery services.… Read more »
Agree! and great news. Local problems need local solutions put forth by locals.
Wasn’t Doig head of the Park District under Richie Daley? It’s great than he’s involved in Pullman. There are some gems on the South Side that could be great again if the crime problem could ever be solved. These Aldermen and members of Congress are a joke! I don’t know how they can look their constituents in the eye given the lousy job they’ve done. It all starts with public safety, if people don’t feel safe they won’t shop, go to restaurants, etc…
He did indeed run the Park District under Daley. Met with him down there in Pullman when doing field work for my book. Excellent guy. And I agree. “disinvestment” by former residents and former small business people in gritty neighborhoods in cities such as Chicago is usually a result of their own risk management calculations. They see stuff happen way too often. It adds up. And they’re gone. It so happens crime is quite low, relatively, in Pullman as compared to neighboring West Pullman and Roseland. The entire historic village in Pullman is a gem and fully inhabited. Whereas once… Read more »