By: Mark Glennon*

The speeches last night said most of what you need to know about the election.

In her concession speech, Jeanne Ives said, “Illinois does not have a Democratic or Republican problem, it has a math problem.” It was a core part of her campaign message — that simple math shows the fiscal catastrophe Illinois faces. That’s also been our core theme at Wirepoints since our inception. It trumps all other issues.

In his victory speech, Governor Rauner said, “To those of you around the state who wanted to send me a message, let me be clear: I have heard you.”

In his victory speech, JB Pritzker said, “Let’s fund our schools properly so that every child gets a quality education. Let’s institute a progressive income tax, so that we can lower the tax burden on the middle class and those striving to get there. Let’s work toward universal health care by passing my plan for a public option.”

There you have it. The stage is set.

For Rauner, the issue is which message he heard. The message I most hope he heard is that denial isn’t working. Among the reasons why his base turned on him is failure to emphasize the full scope of our crisis — the simple math. Rauner has largely gone silent on that, in words and deeds, in contrast to the more realistic message he delivered in his first campaign. As governor, he supported a massive increase in educational spending with no way to pay for it. His budgets are unbalanced. His “comprehensive pension reform” proposals are little more then gimmicks.

Pritzker isn’t stupid enough to believe what he says — I know him personally well enough to say that — so he knows his entire campaign is a fraud. Tax the rich and spend more — he didn’t hesitate to emphasize that in his victory speech and throughout his campaign. But he knows full well that a progressive income tax wouldn’t fix much and would backfire in the long run by driving more big taxpayers out. He knows full well that we won’t have more money for schools or universal healthcare. He knows full well that The Machine, of which he is part, is looting the state. And he knows those things nevertheless win elections in Illinois.

Maybe the message Rauner claims he got is the right one. We’ll see.

As for Pritzker, there’s no hope.

And as for Ives, she ran on her principles, one being math.

She lost. It lost.

*Mark Glennon is founder and Exec. Editor of Wirepoints.

 

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DMND
2 years ago

IMO, the reason IL sucks, and will continue to suck is because our Elites Suck! Both D’s and R’s need to figure this out because they’re tone-deaf.

For example, I was working a poll for the Dem’ yesterday, and encountered several of the Bernie Sanders Dem’s. It was can assure you we will be longing for the days of the “OLD Machine” Democrats. There will be no compromise from these people.

S and P 500
2 years ago

Most voters don’t understand a lot of stuff. They don’t know how to read a balance sheet, they have little to no investment experience (such as trading stocks with Charles Schwab or E-trade), and they don’t know where pension money comes from. They don’t know that states can’t print money or that public pension funds really aren’t supposed to work like Ponzi’s. They don’t understand annuities or the present value of an annuity. 90% of voters out there couldn’t tell you what is the current DJIA or the interest on the 10-yr. Treasury bond. Some of the students who protest… Read more »

Keith
2 years ago
Reply to  S and P 500

All of what you just said certainly proves that the pensions are doomed.

Rick
2 years ago

Jeanne Ives got my vote yesterday, and she will get my write in vote in the election. Rauner is a milquetoast poser in a never worn flannel shirt with no sawdust and all never-used tools in his woodshop. He was a poser in that old commercial. Which only served to insult our intelligence. His last round of commercials insulted us again with the obvious fake news about Ives serving Madigan. He voted against all the republican congress on free abortions, tax increase and immigration. He is not a republican, he deserves to lose now.

Mr. Common Sense
2 years ago

Illinois’s mass exodus now has a turbo charger on that engine.

nixit
2 years ago

As an independent in a Democrat stronghold, it makes little sense for me to pull a Republican primary ballot. County commissioner, US Rep, Assessor, judges (had a friend running) are all on the Dem ballot. If I don’t choose my preferred Dem candidate early, I don’t get a choice after that.

Jeanne Ives
2 years ago

Rauner won on lies. Downstate older women inundated with mailers and tv ads saying I was Madigan’s best friend are why Rauner won. We fought with principles. He won with lies.

Adam
2 years ago
Reply to  Jeanne Ives

Hey Jeanne. So, how long until the public pensions that are ruining the state collapse? How come no one in Springfield has the guts to say the pensions are doomed? Until someone starts telling the truth about pensions, I have no respect for any of you. The public unions have run this state into the ground; they are the problem. Their main puppet is Madigan and they also have a host of other puppets in Springfield. I doubt you would have fared any better than Rauner against them. I look forward to the pension collapse, because until then this state… Read more »

Ed S
2 years ago
Reply to  Jeanne Ives

Jeanne. I recognize and understand your efforts regarding simple math. To me however ever since the enactment of the “Edgar Ramp” regarding pension funding I have thrown up my hands with thoughts that a large percentage of Illinois voters do not understand simple math. I and many others do appreciate your efforts but I do not think many will understand the problem until the State Property Tax rate reaches 100%.

Mark M
2 years ago
Reply to  Jeanne Ives

I live in the swamp near DC yet have deep roots in Illinois. It pains me that I can never go back. (I had a job offer a few years back but even with a very generous compensation offer it couldn’t be done). Illinois makes absolutely no economic sense on any economic level. I am generally cynical about politicians, but I have listened to you on many occasions (podcasts and the like) and I don’t think I have ever been more impressed by any candidate than you. When Illinois collapses, which appears now to be an even closer in time… Read more »

2 years ago
Reply to  Jeanne Ives

How about the “I am not in charge ads”-taken out of context; I don’t think you were beaten with lies at all. Pick a political ad that is 100% truthful and not slanted at all. I never see a Sgt. Joe Friday “Just the facts Ma’am” political ad. Few people are influenced by political ads-it’s a way to get people off their can and in the voting booth. I think the truth is Rauner made unforced errors on social issues. You, Ives, tapped into the base that puts social issues first-and then the piece of the party that wanted to… Read more »

2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

no, but the reality for Republicans is the only candidate that has won statewide that is a hard line social conservative is Senator Peter Fitzgerald. He was run out by his own party (the crony capitalist part) in 2005. I didn’t see ads downstate, don’t know anyone downstate so I will defer to you on the influence of those ads. But, I don’t think it was a 4% difference. Turnout was LOW.

mikeg2929
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

The inability to compromise is not what we need in this state. Her stance on social issues turned off the >45 female fiscally conservative, socially moderate woman voter. She would have been slaughtered in the general election.

JOHN B POWERS
2 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Carter

By taken out of context, you mean in context, don’t you? It’s actually what Rauner said, in context.

And in the US, we don’t get ruled, we get governed.

2 years ago
Reply to  JOHN B POWERS

In Illinois we get ruled.

Bobby Z
2 years ago
Reply to  Jeanne Ives

We’re very proud to have had a small part in working for your campaign, Jeanne. Your principled leadership has been an inspiration to us and the many others who saw through Rauner’s sleazy Alinsky-like deceit.
We musn’t let this grassroots groundswell just evaporate. We need to build upon it and reach out to those who were deceived by this RINO. It won’t be long before they regret voting for him!
With your leadership we can grow into a formidable force whose positions cannot be ignored by any Illinois officeholder!

Bull
2 years ago
Reply to  Jeanne Ives

I am a proud downstate Ives volunteer. Unfortunately the downstate voters fell for these ads.

Keith
2 years ago

So Mark, do the pensions collapse under whoever the next governor is or not? We both know taxes are about tapped out. I am doubting they will even be able to approve a progressive tax system in this dumpster fire of a state, but that won’t stop the pensions from collapsing anyway. How long before pesnion collapse Mark?

Keith
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

I see that it is happening. But I have not seen you talk about what the end game is for people. The state is too big to just let collapse, so what is the reality of what will happen when the dust settle from this Mark? I think you need to talk more about that. Everyone can see things are falling apart; that has been talked about enough already. What happens after?

Keith
2 years ago
Reply to  Keith

Do you have an answer or not Mark? To say to “just move” is not a realistic answer by the way.

Heath
2 years ago
Reply to  Keith

Parts of the State secede.

Keith
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

Well Mark, it seems to me that the pensions at some point run out of of funds and then it is game over. They will stop paying into the pensions at some point, and that is when they will run totally out. I see no other option. That will then force change of pensions. This is a state of millions on people, many of which will not be able to move, but they have to be able to live. They will stop paying into the pensions soon I believe. Taxes can only be increased a bit more, and there is… Read more »

Keith
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

Also Mark, I think it is pretty obvious that bankruptcy for municipal and state level will have to happen. That isn’t a IF, it is most certainly a WHEN.

jaherzrent
2 years ago
Reply to  Keith

If there is a way that the pension funds could file for bankruptcy, immediately, then the existing assets could be fairly divided among the participants. Everybody gets a 70% haircut, including those already retired. The state-run plans may be governed by the provision that forbids states to file for bankruptcy. So Congress would have to enable that. The city and county etc. plans might be able to file with state authorization. I think this has been tried once in one of the U.S. Pacific Island territories, and failed as a Chapter 11. However, I wonder if someone could try it… Read more »

Adam
2 years ago
Reply to  jaherzrent

In reality bankruptcy will be forced because the state or local towns will at some point not be able to pay into the pension systems anymore. When that happens, retirees will no longer get their retirement payments. So, they can either go rot in a ditch or bankruptcy will have to be allowed one way or another. Obviously public union boomers rotting in a ditch due to having no money anymore will not be allowed to happen.

S and P 500
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

I’ve been reading the articles on the website collapse dot news. I’m starting to wonder if we need to prepare for the possibility of a complete breakdown of our way of life. It’s happened in Puerto Rico and Dallas and a few other places, like Montecito. Our governments are supposed to keep us safe. I just watched a you-tube vid “Broken Arrows and Incidents” narrated by Adam West. I can’t believe there were 32 broken arrow incidents during the Cold War.

Keith
2 years ago
Reply to  S and P 500

All this talk about Illinois is mostly pointless anyway, as the global economy is in much worse shape than Illinois, and when it collapses, we are all toast anyway.

JOHN B POWERS
2 years ago
Reply to  Keith

Record stock market highs, unemployment lows…rest of USA is doing pretty well We created our own mess.

Mark M
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

If Pritzker is elected, and raises taxes significantly (which one would think will be the case), capital and talent which can migrate will, and perhaps quickly. So while history would suggest that Illinois’ demise will be a slow, grinding demise, because the rent seekers in office and their beneficiaries know how to hang on like no other, if enough of the 5 percent who really carry the freight in the state leave, I leave open the possibility of a pop, and a precipitous downfall.

Adam
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark M

In the end, it is the people with pensions that have to worry, The state is too populated to have it any other way. The pensions will pop for sure.

Adam
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

True, prices could plummet for a bit, until the pensions pop. In the end property taxes can only go so high, as with other taxes. Bad things will happen to a point for sure, but the pensions go bust before it gets too awful; it isn’t realistic any other way. Not everyone can move. Most people cannot pay much more in taxes right now. The end is near for this pension farce Mark. Your site is outstanding by the way.

Mark M
2 years ago
Reply to  Adam

When the pensions pop, the restructuring must be done very well to take care of those beneficiaries with lesser means. Wipe them out, and what was a pension problem becomes a social welfare problem, with no money to fund those programs either. Most of the financiers have liens, but extreme situations can lead to laws as we know them being disrupted. Leaving may not be an option for some, but for those who can do so, there is no reason now to not press ahead with doing so.

Adam
2 years ago
Reply to  Mark M

People act like leaving is easy. If you have a job, you most likely are not going to leave. It isn’t easy getting a good job anywhere, in any state. Many states will be falling apart financially in time, just not as quickly as IL. If I lost my job, then I would most likely move. If my company moves, then I leave with them for certain. But, for many people moving is a very stressful event that requires a lot of planning and even luck to work out. So, the “just move” line isn’t an answer to the problem… Read more »

jaherzrent
2 years ago
Reply to  Adam

If the whole system starts to collapse (like the Greenland ice sheet) then what will our leaders do? (If we still have a functioning government, that is.) I think they’ll even more tempted to kick the can down the road. Social security and welfare programs will be collapsing at the same time. I fear this means bailouts and printing presses which could favor the debtor class. Pay off your mortgage with 20-cent dollars while property values AND property taxes decline. The printed dollars will pay pretend pensions and pretend social security, so the old folks (my spouse and I) may… Read more »

Jake Braekes
2 years ago

We have all lost.

The exodus will accelerate.

The majority people of Illinois cannot add and have voted for insanity. They deserve what they get.

Advocate
2 years ago
Reply to  Jake Braekes

A Silver Lining is definitely the fact that J. Ives got more votes per campaign dollar than anybody else. She did more with less. She nearly won in the face of strong headwinds having to battle many more campaign dollars; she also had to overcome Rauners advantage of incumbency. Rauners defection from social conservatives on abortion was surely a factor helping Ives;Still more sided with Rauner so his play to social independents and moderates seemed to have carried. Some may say trickster insurgent democrats may have crossed over in numbers giving Ives an artificial lift. I doubt this was significant… Read more »

Mr. Common Sense
2 years ago
Reply to  Advocate

I don’t think Trump really had anything to do with this. It was Benedict Rauner’s money and the lies spread in all of those commercials downstate that carried him.

And the way, Benedict Rauner will lose by 15-20 points against JB.
Start preparing for a massive tax increases.