Determining the fate of hefty parcels that once delivered millions of dollars in tax revenue is a challenge confronting a number of suburbs, including Deerfield, Glenview, Lincolnshire, Riverwoods, Schaumburg, Morton Grove, Naperville, and Oak Brook. And there are several large cash-starved office complexes in Lisle and Rosemont whose fates are up in the air. Such towns are dealing with the reality that the decades-old suburban office bonanza is over.
A major issue that has largely been ignored is that property taxes in the surrounding counties have risen over the last ten years to the point that they are, in many locations, just as bad as Cook County. Lake County, for example , has largely lost its tax advantage. DuPage pretty close behind. And with giveaway Democrats creeping in to those county boards, there is little hope that property taxes in the future will be controlled any better than Cook. So naturally, costs will increase for tenants, vacancies will go up, and property values will decline. It is a mess.… Read more »
The figure you mentioned occurs if/when the inflationary and/or other budgetary increases of the services increase on average at a rate of 5% for that entire period. Does that strike you as a reasonable average expectation for the past 22 years? Apparently not or you likely wouldn’t have mentioned it.
No, that would be far too high. It should go up something around what inflation has been for that period, wich would have increased the taxes by 1.7X, not 3X.
Not really. I explained the logic flaw here a few days ago maybe to Poor Taxpayer. School budgets are something like 80% salaries, I suppose. Does anyone anywhere of potential worth to his family go into a job with the thought and expectation that his wages and income security should never exceed the local CPI? I wouldn’t, you likely wouldn’t and you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who has some combination of above average intelligence, personal drive and a college education to have such a low expectation. No, most such people expect to do better in life so that… Read more »
James, a number of things. K-12 is actually not that labor intensive when you include capital budgets. The “spending per student” numbers typically ignore that. For example, Chicago’s reported spending per student is about $18K, but the true total is about $30K when you add in the capital budget. I don’t have exact numbers, but I am confident education labor cost is not consumed by anything close to 80% of total cost. Many industries, however, are 80% or higher, and they sure as heck haven’t increased prices by 5% per year in the last 22 years. You ask,”Does anyone anywhere… Read more »
The past doesn’t necessarily predict the future. I accept your analysis in general, but again where wages are tied to ongoing contracts it’s unrealistic to expect workers generally to work years on end with their wages almost never rising above the local CPI. That’s essentially saying their purchasing power on average is no greater years later than it was on their first day of employment. You likely wouldn’t accept that nor would I. No person that can think beyond immediate gratification would enter a career path where that’s the common expectation among the employees!
Don’t confuse one individual moving through their career with wage costs as a whole. On the whole, wages HAVE, unfortunately, risen only at CPI rates, but when government salaries rise faster taxes increase faster, and there’s no equity in that. This is a “do unto others” issue. We should strive to have wages outpace inflation and, while we have had brief periods of that, it generally hasn’t taken place for 40 years. BTW, pensions are the big driver, as PPF said.
James, The way wages are calculated for teachers would not result in a 5% average annual increase. Yes staff increases will be and should be greater than CPI but that doesn’t change the overall costs. Imagine having a perfectly balanced staff based on years of experience. A first year teacher is at the low end while teachers who have been in their career from year 25 to 35 are at the high end. Teachers at the high end may make 3 times what the brand new teacher makes because of step and lane changes. However in theory, each year, should… Read more »
Okaying, that seems logical enough. But, to hammer home another point you’ve made here there are other cost increase factors likely at play here. One is a changing and ever increasing expectations as to what government at even local levels is expected to do as well as the expenses required for doing it. That likely means more hiring and some of that being people doing jobs not previously done or less intently done. Hence, an ever more burdensome administrative cost structure to include the training, equipment and offices is the result. In short, public expectations typically rise over time as… Read more »
“In short, public expectations typically rise over time as do the costs that go with it.”
Completely agree James. There is no better example than the automobile. Car prices have increased much faster than inflation because of all the new “must have” safety features. People want all these feel good requirements (voting for politicians that demand them) and then act completely confused when the costs spiral out of control.
“Suggesting governmental costs should rise at the same rate as the local CPI likely is seldom true in practice and where Democrats are at the helm in particular. After all, they are the ones wanting to do more at every turn and everywhere.” Yes, that’s a big part of the problem, too. And they reject obvious reforms needed like local government consolidation and real pension reform.
It’s not blame pensions Mark. The blame is not setting aside the appropriate amount. It’s debt that causes these problems and not pensions themselves. The government has been borrowing from these pensions by not appropriately funding them.
Do you blame your bank when you don’t make the full mortgage payment and your outstanding balance increases? No. That would be your fault and not the banks.
I wish we had been trying to properly fund pensions. It then would have been clear long ago that the cost is too high and the public wouldn’t stand for it.
Possibly or we wouldn’t have spent the money elsewhere on other feel good initiatives. Until we actually start paying the actuarial amount we will never know the true resolve of the public regarding pensions. In the meantime, let’s raise tier 2 benefits even though we all know the state is deep in debt.
As I often write, pay more now or pay even more later.
Nobody has to have a truly high IQ score to know that borrowing creates an ever increasing debt when payments against it are inadequate. Making higher than actuarially required payments against that debt starts to make interest work in your favor due to incrementally decreasing that debt. Responsible people act accordingly while others moan incessantly that the pain of failing to act responsibly is someone else’s fault.
Paying any amount below the actuarially required amount is “not enough” by definition. It only makes the debt grow. You did learn that in your Finance 101 course, right?
Martin Eden
2 years ago
There is a bit of “fiduciary” mismanagement… No asset class goes up in perpetuity… As such, not having a plan b (or c and d) will cause a great deal of pain to the bond and senior debt holders of those now less valuable assets…
The true tragedy? The pensioners and other small investors in whose pensions this garbage will reside… Just like pension holidays, it’s always the little guys who get F-ed.
Well, and an Illinois Executive officer who likes nothing more than signaling his virtue instead of luring new businesses and residents… Well, unless he could catch and eat them/it…
I wrongly predicted that the city’s loss would be the suburb’s gain, as employees want to work closer to home. But the WFH has been so successful, the suburbs are in arguably worse shape than the city. I suspect it will take several decades, but most of these buildings will be torn down, or even abandoned. There’s not much repurposing of these suburban buildings. The land will eventually be redeveloped one way or another, it’s just going to take several decades for local zoning boards to figure it out. Chicago’s downtown won’t be completely abandoned but its going to be… Read more »
Debtsor, the future is a version of Detroit where entire blocks have reverted into farmland.
Poor Taxpayer
2 years ago
Going to be very tough as business are leaving the state for greener pastures. It has been going on for a decade and is increasing every year. Hard to turn it around with a government that picks the pockets of the job creators at every turn.
nixit
2 years ago
Interesting idea by Megan McArdle: To lure people back into the office, offer them their own office.
Suburbs in better position to repurpose office sites — Loop is a nightmare to build, and the demand for living in downtown crime toilet is disappearing
A largely unasked question is becoming glaring: Is Illinois doing all it should to use artificial intelligence to make government cost less and work better? So far, the evidence says no.
A major issue that has largely been ignored is that property taxes in the surrounding counties have risen over the last ten years to the point that they are, in many locations, just as bad as Cook County. Lake County, for example , has largely lost its tax advantage. DuPage pretty close behind. And with giveaway Democrats creeping in to those county boards, there is little hope that property taxes in the future will be controlled any better than Cook. So naturally, costs will increase for tenants, vacancies will go up, and property values will decline. It is a mess.… Read more »
Spot on Sparty, soon the whole state will be swirling in the bowl…..
My suburban taxes tripled in 22 years.
The figure you mentioned occurs if/when the inflationary and/or other budgetary increases of the services increase on average at a rate of 5% for that entire period. Does that strike you as a reasonable average expectation for the past 22 years? Apparently not or you likely wouldn’t have mentioned it.
No, that would be far too high. It should go up something around what inflation has been for that period, wich would have increased the taxes by 1.7X, not 3X.
Not really. I explained the logic flaw here a few days ago maybe to Poor Taxpayer. School budgets are something like 80% salaries, I suppose. Does anyone anywhere of potential worth to his family go into a job with the thought and expectation that his wages and income security should never exceed the local CPI? I wouldn’t, you likely wouldn’t and you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who has some combination of above average intelligence, personal drive and a college education to have such a low expectation. No, most such people expect to do better in life so that… Read more »
James, a number of things. K-12 is actually not that labor intensive when you include capital budgets. The “spending per student” numbers typically ignore that. For example, Chicago’s reported spending per student is about $18K, but the true total is about $30K when you add in the capital budget. I don’t have exact numbers, but I am confident education labor cost is not consumed by anything close to 80% of total cost. Many industries, however, are 80% or higher, and they sure as heck haven’t increased prices by 5% per year in the last 22 years. You ask,”Does anyone anywhere… Read more »
The past doesn’t necessarily predict the future. I accept your analysis in general, but again where wages are tied to ongoing contracts it’s unrealistic to expect workers generally to work years on end with their wages almost never rising above the local CPI. That’s essentially saying their purchasing power on average is no greater years later than it was on their first day of employment. You likely wouldn’t accept that nor would I. No person that can think beyond immediate gratification would enter a career path where that’s the common expectation among the employees!
Don’t confuse one individual moving through their career with wage costs as a whole. On the whole, wages HAVE, unfortunately, risen only at CPI rates, but when government salaries rise faster taxes increase faster, and there’s no equity in that. This is a “do unto others” issue. We should strive to have wages outpace inflation and, while we have had brief periods of that, it generally hasn’t taken place for 40 years. BTW, pensions are the big driver, as PPF said.
James, The way wages are calculated for teachers would not result in a 5% average annual increase. Yes staff increases will be and should be greater than CPI but that doesn’t change the overall costs. Imagine having a perfectly balanced staff based on years of experience. A first year teacher is at the low end while teachers who have been in their career from year 25 to 35 are at the high end. Teachers at the high end may make 3 times what the brand new teacher makes because of step and lane changes. However in theory, each year, should… Read more »
Okaying, that seems logical enough. But, to hammer home another point you’ve made here there are other cost increase factors likely at play here. One is a changing and ever increasing expectations as to what government at even local levels is expected to do as well as the expenses required for doing it. That likely means more hiring and some of that being people doing jobs not previously done or less intently done. Hence, an ever more burdensome administrative cost structure to include the training, equipment and offices is the result. In short, public expectations typically rise over time as… Read more »
Completely agree James. There is no better example than the automobile. Car prices have increased much faster than inflation because of all the new “must have” safety features. People want all these feel good requirements (voting for politicians that demand them) and then act completely confused when the costs spiral out of control.
“Suggesting governmental costs should rise at the same rate as the local CPI likely is seldom true in practice and where Democrats are at the helm in particular. After all, they are the ones wanting to do more at every turn and everywhere.” Yes, that’s a big part of the problem, too. And they reject obvious reforms needed like local government consolidation and real pension reform.
True. Blame pensions in large part.
It’s not blame pensions Mark. The blame is not setting aside the appropriate amount. It’s debt that causes these problems and not pensions themselves. The government has been borrowing from these pensions by not appropriately funding them.
Do you blame your bank when you don’t make the full mortgage payment and your outstanding balance increases? No. That would be your fault and not the banks.
I wish we had been trying to properly fund pensions. It then would have been clear long ago that the cost is too high and the public wouldn’t stand for it.
Possibly or we wouldn’t have spent the money elsewhere on other feel good initiatives. Until we actually start paying the actuarial amount we will never know the true resolve of the public regarding pensions. In the meantime, let’s raise tier 2 benefits even though we all know the state is deep in debt.
As I often write, pay more now or pay even more later.
Nobody has to have a truly high IQ score to know that borrowing creates an ever increasing debt when payments against it are inadequate. Making higher than actuarially required payments against that debt starts to make interest work in your favor due to incrementally decreasing that debt. Responsible people act accordingly while others moan incessantly that the pain of failing to act responsibly is someone else’s fault.
Still not high enough according to PPF. Pay more for pension funding.
Some of the highest taxes in the country and still not high enough.
Paying any amount below the actuarially required amount is “not enough” by definition. It only makes the debt grow. You did learn that in your Finance 101 course, right?
There is a bit of “fiduciary” mismanagement… No asset class goes up in perpetuity… As such, not having a plan b (or c and d) will cause a great deal of pain to the bond and senior debt holders of those now less valuable assets…
The true tragedy? The pensioners and other small investors in whose pensions this garbage will reside… Just like pension holidays, it’s always the little guys who get F-ed.
Well, and an Illinois Executive officer who likes nothing more than signaling his virtue instead of luring new businesses and residents… Well, unless he could catch and eat them/it…
Spot on Garden of Eden and without lube!
I wrongly predicted that the city’s loss would be the suburb’s gain, as employees want to work closer to home. But the WFH has been so successful, the suburbs are in arguably worse shape than the city. I suspect it will take several decades, but most of these buildings will be torn down, or even abandoned. There’s not much repurposing of these suburban buildings. The land will eventually be redeveloped one way or another, it’s just going to take several decades for local zoning boards to figure it out. Chicago’s downtown won’t be completely abandoned but its going to be… Read more »
Debtsor, the future is a version of Detroit where entire blocks have reverted into farmland.
Going to be very tough as business are leaving the state for greener pastures. It has been going on for a decade and is increasing every year. Hard to turn it around with a government that picks the pockets of the job creators at every turn.
Interesting idea by Megan McArdle: To lure people back into the office, offer them their own office.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/09/remote-work-offices-floorplan-privacy/
Suburbs in better position to repurpose office sites — Loop is a nightmare to build, and the demand for living in downtown crime toilet is disappearing
Homes for the new immigrants?
Nope, keep them in the sanctuary of Chicago or better, send them home.