Final revenue numbers are in for The State of Illinois’ 2023 fiscal year that ended June 30, reported Thursday by COGFA, the state’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability. Overall revenue for the General Fund — the state’s main operating fund, rose to $53.134 billion, a record high, which is $2.064 billion or 4% higher than the $51.070 billion collected in fiscal year 2022.
COGFA revised its revenue estimates for the year just ended up twice then down once because of the volatility during the year. Actual numbers ended up being within 1% of its final estimate.
Of the state’s major sources of revenue, only income tax receipts lagged last year’s, as shown in this summary from COGFA.
Uncertainty remains about this new fiscal year because of recession risk and the end of Covid pandemic relief from the federal government. Some of that assistance is still being disbursed though at far lower levels than during the pandemic. States have been awash in cash but are now seeing those fortunes reversed, as Bloomberg and many others have recently reported.
It’s important to understand the enormity of the impact of that federal money on tax receipts. The federal government has already disbursed over $12.3 trillion labeled as pandemic relief to the private sector and state and local governments. That’s about half of the entire GDP of around $25 trillion for the nation — the total value of all goods and services produced. Throwing that much fuel on the fire generates an enormous amount of economic activity, much of which ends up taxed.
That stimulus is ending now. Just as states beat their revenue forecasts during the pandemic because they underestimated the impact of federal money, the reverse may now happen as the federal binge ends.
-Mark Glennon
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
Pritzgers horn tooting over how “ he balanced the budget “ about to sound some sour notes. He really felt that he could dupe everyone into believing all was fine even though he persisted with mandate after mandate and extended his Draconian lock down far longer than necessary. Anyone paying attention saw that it was his ( and Lori Lightfoots) positioning in the trough line that, (supposedly) eased Illinois financial problems for but a moment. Can’t wait to hear the excuses and backpedaling when those chickens come back to roost.
Pritzker plans to be in the White House issuing illegal executive orders to bail out progressive blue cities by the time the chickens come home to roost. He is one of the most dangerous men in the USA.
Especially to the unborn!
I don’t think there was an underestimation of the impact of massive federal stimulus. I think there was no estimation. The only thought of those who voted for such was, “Give voters money now!”
82% of the increase (below the blue line) can be attributed to Covid relief. Personal income tax collections down during a period of high inflation is a big red flag. Not sure I fully understand transfers-in, but I think it’s merely money moving around various state agencies and doesn’t mean much onto itself without being offset by transfers-out. The State Constitution requires the Governor to prepare and submit to the General Assembly an Executive Budget for the ensuing fiscal year. The budget covers most funds held by the State, but excludes all locally held funds and various treasury held funds which… Read more »