The January report from COGFA, Illinois’ Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, is out and it contains good news on the state’s primary revenue sources.
Comparing January of this year to January of last year, each of the “big three” revenue sources are up. That’s surprising since last January was pre-pandemic. Gross personal income taxes increased $212 million, or $186 million on a net basis. Gross corporate income taxes experienced growth of $70 million, or $56 million net, while gross sales taxes posted $29 million in gains, or $30 million on a net basis. They are up for the fiscal year to date as well.
Some of the improvement in income taxes may be due to distortions caused by extended due dates, but that would not affect sales tax receipts, so the increase there is particularly welcome.
The bad news — as Springfield sees things — is that more revenue makes the state’s case for a federal bailout weaker. Most other states, too, have reported surprisingly strong revenue numbers in the face of the pandemic.
The solid revenue numbers are also surprising given Illinois’ level of unemployment. That’s the other bad news. The state’s unemployment rate compared to other states is shown on the chart below from COGFA.
-Mark Glennon
The arguments for tearing apart Chicago Public Schools and replacing it with a universal school choice program continue to pile higher. The system is an abject failure any way you cut it. 
Chicago may think it walled itself off from the issue, but the firestorm is only getting started. 
Neither Pritzker or Lightfoot can escape the reality that they’ve lost control over the city’s crime. One statistic that particularly captures their failure is Chicago’s homicide rate compared to that in big-city peers New York and Los Angeles. 
President Biden said the pandemic is essentially over, but Governor Pritzker issued his 34th Covid Disaster Proclamation. President of Wirepoints and the Steve Cochran Show talk about why Pritzker issued the proclamation, what the Federal Government is going to do about this, and if the Governor’s Office has too much power. 
A lot of the modest increase is because businesses and citizens ignored the bloviation of Pritzker.
Amazon et al internet companies started collecting sales tax on purchases making me think that with internet sales booming Illinois, like other states, was a big winner in that area.
JB “This study is reprehensible and lacks the science and data my team relies on to make budget decisions, we need a federal bailout”
Then takes giant chomping bite out of a greasy turkey leg he stashed behind the podium
Is this sales tax revenue due to cannabis because I just don’t see how sales tax revenue would be higher with everything shut down.
Middleofmytether, good question but I think the answer is no, cannabis taxes do not account for much of the good showing on sales tax collections. There is a special excise tax for cannabis that is recorded separately. There is a regular sales tax, too, on marijuana, but the amount thereof going to the state is not big. That’s my understanding and I am double checking it with COGFA. I do share your surprise that sales taxes are holding up so well, as well as other tax revenue. But it is happening nationally, too.
This is likely due to a shift from services (which Illinois does not tax) to goods (which it does).
The big hit will come in Feb/Mar when people won’t be receiving their yearly bonuses.
This proves the state needs more millionaires, not higher taxes on those staying.
There were no increases in taxes the past year, yet Illinois made more money. If Illinois stopped attacking the rich, we’d all have better lives.
It is probably too early to do a postmortem and compare the different stats of the states (including economic) response to Covid-19 and contrasted to policy decisions but would be super interesting to see.
It is a bit too early but those comparisons will be coming. And stay tuned for some fascinating numbers on how little states, including IL, actually need to make them whole on COVID costs and lost revenue. We should have those for you within a few days.