By: Mark Glennon*

Thomas Jefferson’s disdain for big cities and his agrarian vision for America was based partly on the danger of epidemics. He lived through a major one, yellow fever in 1793 that killed one in ten people in Philadelphia, then the nation’s capital.

Today, COVID-19 is helping drive many big city residents out, but the timeliness of considering Jefferson’s views about cities goes beyond the virus. Will today’s trend continue? Are Jefferson’s views about big cities now gaining acceptance?

It’s too early to say, but we are at least getting a better picture of the exodus to date. An outfit called MyMove used a clever way to look at migration patterns since the start of the pandemic. They compiled the number of change-of-address notices filed with the United States Post Office.

As you would expect, their study found that big cities are hemorrhaging residents. Bigger cities would always have bigger numbers of people moving out, so, to correct for that, they compared this year’s change-of-address notices to last year’s.

Chicago’s change-of-address notices more than doubled over last year’s for the period from February 1 to August 1; New York City’s are up 490%; San Francisco’s up 180%; Los Angeles’s up 96%; Washington D.C.’s up 160%; Houston’s up 60%; and Philadelphia’s up 60%.

The good news for cities may be that the vast majority of those change-of-address notices were temporary, not permanent. For the nation as a whole, it was temporary notices that spiked the most — by 27%. Permanent change notices went up by only 2%. Those are national numbers and were not broken out by city.

To where did the city emigrants go? Predominantly to smaller, less dense locations, including suburbs, the report shows.

Will people return to cities after the virus subsides?

COVID-19 clearly accounts for part of the flight and it is temporary. But there are other causes, and Jefferson’s views about some of those other problems in big cities are seeming more relevant every day.

“The mobs of great cities,” he wrote, “add just so much to the support of pure government, as sores do to the strength of the human body. It is the manners and spirit of a people which preserve a republic in vigor. A degeneracy in these is a canker which soon eats to the heart of its laws and constitution.” Those are tough words that are not acceptable today, but no doubt widely felt.

He called big cities “pestilential to the morals, the health, and the liberties of man…. When we get piled upon one another in large cities, as in Europe, we shall become as corrupt as in Europe.” Governing Magazine ran a nice summary earlier this year with more on Jefferson’s views on cities.

Jefferson’s views about cities were not embraced by the nation for 230 years, but that may be changing. Most of his other views were held sacred, but that, tragically, is also changing. Time will soon tell which ones prevail.

*Mark Glennon is founder of Wirepoints.

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Poor Taxpayer
29 days ago

People are moving out of the Schitty of Chicago and not looking back.
Taxes going up, services (like they ever had any) going down.

30 days ago

I am not sure it’s just COVID driving people out. The draconian/totalitarian ways mayors have dealt with COVID also are driving people out. Example, the lakefront in Chicago. The other thing that is driving people out is the safety. Big city mayors all over the country have gone totally leftists. Tent cities of homeless-defund the police-big time fees and taxes-along with the corruption that comes with it. It’s really hard to spilt hairs to see a core reason but I don’t think it’s COVID. I think this has been building up, and COVID was the last straw. Sort of like… Read more »

John
28 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Carter

New slogan for Illinois: “You’ll come for the cold weather, but you’ll stay for the high taxes.”

Lyn P
27 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Carter

100.

And in Chi-towns case, I’d argue that the Leftist infestation a la Seattle, San Fran, etc., which was somewhat buffered out by a great downtown culture, went into full-cancer mode after the settling in of Lighthead the wokest Mayor yet.

I can personally speak for 3 long-term downtown residents who exited this summer specifically on the fundamental change of safety in the immediate surroundings.

SteveOh
30 days ago

Mark: Great research and fascinating topic re Jefferson’s views. I doubt Jefferson would’ve imagined another ginormous problem — the tendency of big-city government to ruin cities by feathering their own nest with excess pay and benefits esp pensions, overspending on “do-gooder” projects, spend and tax recklessly, disincentivize work and marriage, incentivize births by welfare bfts of unemployeds, under-employeds, uneducateds, unskilleds, and last but not least, permit unlimited illegal and legal immigrants to grab low-skilled, unskilled and entry-level jobs, thus ruining job prospects by our own citizens and depressing wages to boot.

Eddie
29 days ago
Reply to  SteveOh

The legal immigrants are American Citizens, entitled to jobs and rights just like their predecessors. 😁