“Forty thousand hospitalizations. Not 40,000 cases, but 40,000 people who require acute care in a hospital setting,” Lightfoot said. “That number will break our healthcare system… This will push our city to the brink.”

That’s from Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, as reported by NBC Chicago, on hospitalizations Chicago must prepare for to treat COVID-19 victims.

But take a look at the only reputable, publicly available projections for hospitalizations, which is from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Click on Illinois and you will see that only about 9,300 hospital beds are expected to be needed when the virus peaks for all Illinois.

Isn’t it time for reporters to start asking why Illinois doesn’t provide hospitalization numbers as other states do? They are key, as we’ve been writing, according to experts around the country. Many other articles in other states have made that same point, though it’s ignored by Illinois reporters.

Mark Glennon

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Platinum Goose
7 months ago

So if there’s a a hundred cases reported today when do those hundred cases drop off the list? Do they even detail how many new versus how many recovered and were removed from the tally?

Jeff
7 months ago

The longer term a model is for, the less reliable it is. And in this case, I’d rather prepare for a higher number than a lower one. If you’re a person who believes people are always angling for some kind of payoff, you won’t agree

Paul
7 months ago

Inflate the need get more aid and pay off your buddies with it. They call it money laundering but in Illinois it’s just Business as Usual…..

Mark Felt
7 months ago

Governor Cuomo the other day asked for an additional one million medical personnel to come to New York to support the state. That would mean about one medical worker for every five New Yorkers in addition to all those currently there. Not to mention it would strip other states of needed medical personnel. I think it is best to remember the old Mark Twain adage, “How do you know when a politician is lying? When his/her lips are moving.” This is truer in Illinois than most other places.

debtsor
7 months ago
Reply to  Mark Felt

JB Pritzker asked for millions of millions PPE. For our 6,000 cases. No wonder he’s not getting that many.

Jeff
7 months ago
Reply to  debtsor

How many PPEs are used per patient per day? If it’s only 5 and 6000 are in the hospital, that’s 30,000 a day. 900,000 a month. And I bet it’s more than 5 a day. So asking for millions isn’t out of the question.

debtsor
7 months ago
Reply to  Jeff

Seems wasteful. All that waste. Shouldn’t Jabba encourage reusing of masks, just like he forces us to reuse bags and straws?

7 months ago

Sure models aren’t reliable, just better than wild guesses. It seems that the modelers suggest a range, from 1178 to 35,154, for statewide COVID-19 peak beds needed. I’m guessing that Lori’s 40,000 assumed people stop cooperating with the restrictions, since her objective is to keep folks at home. Or maybe she’s just trying to emulate the President, making stuff up.

Jeff
7 months ago
Reply to  Mark Glennon

X deaths keeps people at home. Some number less than X is good enough for us to be able to go out. First tell me what X Is and how it’s calculated.

debtsor
7 months ago
Reply to  taxpayer

Well, if models aren’t reliable, are wild guesses really any more reliable? What about educated guesses? I’d respect Lori more if she said 40,000 was an educated guess rather than an opinion based upon a model.

debtsor
7 months ago

It’s just modeling. Forecasters around the world have been trying to model weather patterns for nearly a century and they’ve made some, but not great progress. They can get the big things mostly – major storms, hurricanes, winds. But they can’t look more than about 14 days out very well. The epidemiologists have even less experience modeling than weather forecasters, and there are even fewer of them out there; Their work product, while complete, often seems horribly wrong. 2,000,000 dead in the US? Really? Now it’s down to 200,000? It’s supposed to peak in two weeks? Weather models using all… Read more »

DantheMan
7 months ago

Even if Lightfoot provided some numbers, it’s like dealing with China. Outsiders have no idea how much is fact and how much is fiction.