By: Matt Rosenberg
A sharp crime surge is hitting Chicago and the city’s Hispanic-majority police districts so far in 2023. No wonder a new poll shows a far higher percent of Hispanic voters see crime as a deciding issue in the April mayoral run-off compared to other demographics. The contest is between white law-and-order candidate Paul Vallas and black progressive Brandon Johnson. Hispanics could decide the race, but only if their historically weak voter turnout improves.
In Chicago’s five Hispanic-majority police districts, major crimes are up 43 percent so far in 2023 versus the same 12 weeks of 2022. Those districts – 8, 9, 10, 17, and 25 – cover parts of the Northwest, West, and Southwest Sides. The numbers reflect combined murders, criminal sexual assaults, robberies, aggravated batteries, thefts, and motor vehicle thefts.
In those same districts, crime was already up 22 percent comparing full-year 2022 versus pre-George Floyd 2019.
The city’s crime surge including Hispanic communities could bode well for Vallas. Very likely voters who are Hispanic favored him for mayor 57 percent to 30 percent over Johnson in the run-off contest April 4, according to drill-down details in the March 23-25 Emerson College/WGN-TV poll. Among all very likely voters Vallas was up by 46-41.
On a separate question about crime-fighting capabilities of the two finalists, 63 percent of Hispanics said they trust Vallas’ detailed and technocratic crime-fighting agenda versus 28 percent choosing Johnson’s social spending and “social justice” crime-busting approach. That’s compared to 52-38 sentiment among black voters favoring Johnson on crime versus 66-29 Vallas among whites and 51-45 Vallas for Asians.
Chicago Hispanic voters see crime as a deciding issue for mayor
To be clear, crime is sharply on the rise citywide, not just in Hispanic-majority police districts. Major crimes in Chicago so far this year are up 45 percent versus last year. That’s on top of a 33 percent increase in citywide crime between year-end 2019 and year-end 2022.
Hispanic communities aren’t catching much of a break from crime in recent years – and they’re distinct now because – far more than blacks, whites, or Asians – they see crime as a key issue in deciding how to vote for mayor.
The Emerson College/WGN-TV poll’s crosstabs show 67 percent of very likely Hispanic voters say crime is the most vital concern in choosing a new mayor versus 52 percent for all very likely voters, 55 percent of whites, 43 percent of blacks and just 21 percent of Asians. (Asians more than other groups especially identify as the top factor either education, taxes, homelessness, or race relations, thus driving down the percentage who prioritize crime as a Number One concern).
Hispanic officials are finding their public voice on the crime issue. Although mayoral primary progressive candidate and U.S. Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia endorsed Johnson, the Hispanic Leadership Council, which Garcia co-founded, endorsed Vallas and cited crime as one factor.
A top official there named David Andalcio said, “We need someone who can hit the ground running. Our city is in crisis. We need a steady and proven hand. We need a workhorse and not a show horse…Hispanic voters are centrists who share Paul Vallas’ immigrant values. We want safe streets, world-class schools and a thriving business opportunity.”
Some 81 percent of Hispanic voters surveyed in the Emerson College/WGN-TV poll thought Chicago was headed in the wrong direction, considerably more than any other racial group.
Hispanics could decide who becomes Chicago’s next mayor, so getting them to cast ballots will be key. Voter turnout in the Feb. 28 primary was lower than the citywide average in 8 of the 14 Hispanic-majority wards; and equal or better in just 6.
As it goes for the tamaleros of 26th Street, so goes Chicago
Actions matter more than words in regaining public safety in Chicago. But words still matter. They can set a tone of firmness and accountability. Or they sink a candidate’s ship.
Vanquished one-term incumbent Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot showed repeated tone-deafness on the city’s crime crisis. She called crime critics “haters,” when the real haters are the perpetrators of murder, shootings, armed robberies, rapes, and carjackings. She also said she was putting more cops on the street, when she wasn’t. And she told Hispanic tamale and elote street vendors on 26th Street in Little Village that if they wanted to be safe from repeated armed robberies, they should really go cashless.
Here’s one good measure of Chicago’s next mayor, on crime: whether 26th Street is made safe for tamaleros again. Street food sales are hardly the full measure of the vibrant and growing economy being built by Hispanics in Chicago. But famed urbanist Jane Jacobs made an urgent point in her classic 1961 book “The Death and Life of Great American Cities.” You need to have what she called “eyes on the street.” Pedestrians going to and fro, and shopping at street-level businesses, keep an eye on things and quietly contribute to safe communities.
That’s partly because the comfort and presence of pedestrians and local shoppers helps to deter – as would reinstatement of police foot patrols – the type of predatory crime that has now sadly become endemic in Chicago. If crime continues running rampant there will be fewer and fewer eyes on the streets of Chicago. Which will only encourage more preying upon those who do risk going out. Think of it all this way: If the tamale vendors of 26th Street can’t be safe, then neither can Chicago.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- Brandon Johnson’s views on tolerance for violence and defunding police are absolutely clear. Here are his own words.
- Lori Lightfoot gets the boot in murder-capital Chicago. What does that mean for mayors of other homicide hot spots?
- Don’t let violence prevention programs become a fatal distraction in the quest to make Chicago safe again
- Chicago, New Orleans were the nation’s murder capitals in 2022 – A Wirepoints survey of America’s 75 largest cities
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
Such a great analysis, sadly I wonder after the fact what went wrong? Did the dems do their usual dirty politics with ballot harvesting? Was that the difference? What a sad state of affairs Chicago continues to be.
Matt, I waited to comment until after the election day. Only 43 percent of black voters thought crime was a top priority. I guess they have become numb to the shooting gallery that takes places in their neighborhoods every night. The worst thing that could have happened did happen. The voters of Chicago just voted for the demise of the city. Brandon Johnson is a bigger joke that Lightfoot. I grew up in the South Shore-South Chicago area of the city, and I’m glad I did. However, with this clown as mayor, I think I will stay in the suburbs… Read more »
This article offers valuable insight into the surprisingly strong level of influence that prospective Hispanic voters will likely have in Chicago’s upcoming mayoral election. Especially interesting poll results on how big a factor of consideration crime plays.
Our city’s Hispanic and Latino communities are disproportionately at risk from rising rates of serious crime. These are good communities.
I support Paul Vallas, but whomever wins this mayoral run-off needs to prioritize public safety in every neighborhood, regardless of demographics.
We need to take Chicago back. Getting tough on crime should not be an issue of race and ethnicity, but of enforcing our rule of law and prosecuting criminals.
I couldn’t agree more with Matt! Glad Hispanics want the same things most people do.. safety and opportunities for prosperity.
Cathy
Great analysis, as usual. At least Mayor Lightbrain got the richly deserved ouster. She was a pox on Chicago.
How far will the average citizen let the far left agenda affect their lives in a negative way? We’ve all seen how fast it can go downhill, and it’s not close to down. Crews are out hunting victims, walking down the street. You just hope your car is there, untouched each morning. This, as the current “ leaders” want to take every tool away from law enforcement. The Hispanic vote is a major swing in this election, and it seems that both candidates are ignoring them. They pander for the black vote. Should CTU win this election, I think we’ll… Read more »
Excellent column as always, Matt. Here’s hoping that the Hispanic community will show up in the election and help put Vallas in the Mayor’s seat. Johnson is just Lightfoot 2.0, and we see how well that’s been going for Chicago.
Johnson has played the race card since the beginning of his campaign. On election night we will see how many votes endorse that .
Let’s hope the good people of Chicago make the right decision to stem the tide of violence and murder!
Beetlejuice is appalling. Cashless adds costs for vendors. POS terminal rental, fees per transaction,
connection fee and extra open/close costs.
Crime has to be crushed. B&E, Carjacking, home invaders…every one of these can result in a homicide. Only Vallas has a way out from the crime wave.
Matt has explained it well.
Looking at the map, it appeared that those did vote, chose their candidates based on race. It was obvious Chuy Garcia was going to endorse Brandon Johnson because the CTU paid him nearly $800,000. I hope his endorsement doesn’t influence. Emboldened criminals, have figured out that that their crimes will go unpunished and have ramped it up. This only Increases with Brandon Johnson at the helm. Let’s hope people do their homework and vote smart.
Yes, for the most part, voters vote on race in Chicago. Brandon’s support throughout the more working class north side diverse/wokester neighborhoods is not surprising. Communism is super-popular with the younger woke crowd in the Logan, Albany Park, Lincoln Sq, Uptown and Roger’s Park areas. Which is completely insane because they see, live and experience first-hand, how poorly government runs essential services, yet, they vote for more of the same every time. It’s like believing Carter was a great president in 1976 and voting for him AGAIN in 1980. You can’t fix stupid.
Vallas’ campaign needs to get active in Hispanic communities.
Utilizing street vendors to help touch that communitee is brilliant.
Let’s hope the campaign is listening.
Cuatro de Abril. We will see if the pendulum keeps swinging in the right direction or if Chicago falls even further into the pit before turning things around.
Too much farther down that pit, and there will be nowhere to turn around at.
I hope that the Vallas campaign is making a huge effort to get the Hispanic vote out. I know from my own political experience that people complain about crime and taxes, but then they don’t vote. Whatever small business owners have worked for can be wiped out by crime. The store owners need to step up to demand crime fighting politicians.
It’s a shame that Raymond Lopez wasn’t elected Mayor. He would have done so much good for Chicago.
Lori Lightfoot’s comment that the street venders should go cashless really demonstrated her ignorance. It’s fortunate that she didn’t get past the jungle primary.
I’m not sure things are bad enough for the public to rebel against the clutches of the Democrat Party. It’s sad to say but that may be what it’s going to take before anything is done about this insanity. Things may have to get much worse before it gets better. Lightfoot (re-imagining) Defunding the police is working out wonderfully.
You make a good point about the less that people are out in public encourages more crime.
Congratulations on your WSJ mention ! I also believe the hispanic vote will push Valas forward for the win. We shall soon see.
Great piece, per usual. The Hispanic vote will be very important. But want to bring attention the the fact this author, Matt Rosenburg, was just quoted in the Wall Street Journal today. I was just perusing a fine Jason Riley story, and there’s Matt’s name! Same point as this argument, so I’ll list it below (to avoid the paywall): https://www.wsj.com/articles/chicago-may-elect-a-sensible-mayor-paul-vallas-lori-lightfoot-crime-teacher-police-union-education-progressive-1b2fc515?fbclid=IwAR3vI9jQhgqSp-9XvhIefNyuY5dbGt6PtAfOE6UPa_zdTWGoGLZTtFeXixQ HEADLINE: Chicago May Elect a Sensible Mayor SUBHHEAD: Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson are Democrats, but that’s where the similarity ends. BYLINE: By Jason L. Riley [heralded black conservative and WSJ columnist] In the first round of voting, which featured… Read more »
I worked with a lot of Mexican immigrants. The majority said they came to the U.S. to escape the crime and corruption in Mexico.
Why did they then move to Chicago?
The great weather?
Look at the big trucks and newer cars in the forest preserve parking lots during the summer season of latinks cookouts. They want that, and it’s achievable working 40 hours a week at an under the table job. They also get safe water, indoor plumbing, etc. Don’t forget we are also a sanctuary state, so its free schooling up through age 18, and in CPS, the kids get two free meals a day, and free medical care for children under 18 regardless of immigration status, and there’s all kind of social service programs for illegal immigrants to get apartments, drivers… Read more »
April 4, 2023 might well be a watershed moment for Chicago. Its mayoral election will decide who stays and who goes. It will also decide who comes to visit, shop, and dine, and who does not. Will Brandon Johnson win? Or will Paul Vallas? Matt Rosenberg wrote that [Polls show a] “52-38 sentiment among black voters favoring Johnson on crime.” Huh? More importantly, why? Skin color? It cannot possibly Johnson’s already proven failed policies such as a “holistic” approach to public safety.” Holistic? What the hell is that? See this website: Brandon Johnson on crime in Chicago Johnson “described defunding… Read more »
From a 30,000 foot perspective, the black community has its own justice system separate from the state’s. For the most part, the black community takes care of it’s problems internally, where every grievance is solved with a spray of bullets and crime is side-hustle way of life. The Police get in the way of handling their own problems. I think Arne Duncan alluded to this the other day, where he said that inner city blacks carry guns because they don’t trust the police so they resort to self-help. Which is nonsense. Life is about living and dying by the sword,… Read more »
It’s not just crime in Hispanic neighborhoods, it’s crime everywhere. People are tired of feeling like a prisoner in their own homes. Tired of not being able to even walk down the street. It’s ridiculous.
Crime is up all over Cook County. Sadly, the increase in crime is driven by the policies of Chicago and Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx.
People want to live in safe neighborhoods. People deserve to live in safe neighborhoods. It is up to the government to provide safe neighborhoods for residents: parents, children, families, and businesses.
I guess we’ll have to wait for election day for the Hispanic vote to show up because as of right now they’re the lowest turnout in the city.
I believe that Vallas will be elected from all across the city voters due to the crime and financial dire straits that we are in. Yes, tge Latinos will play a big part of it and in doing so they’ll be looking for having a greater voice, too. It’ll all come in due time, because it will take time to sort the upcoming financial mess Vallas will be dealing along with CTU contract talks.
If you are worried about crime, the Chitty of Chicago is not for you.
Good piece Matt. If Tamaleros can’t consider the City safe, then neither can out of state tourists like myself.
I am well pleased with this report. It may be that Latinos will save Chicago – at least from utter devastation. Make no mistake: Vallas is still a progressive. What our town really needs is a Ron DeSantis type conservative mayor to turn our fortunes around. However, Vallas is our best choice, far over and above the communist racist he is running against.
This is consistent with Leftist Socialist Congressman for life Chuey Garcia doing so poorly with the initial Mayoral election. This bodes well for Vallas.
Thanks to Matt for a solid piece addressing the positive impact that strong communities have on crime. I appreciate the way he weaves crime statistics together with the reality of life in a community. The crime statistics speak for themselves, so instead of focusing on them from the comfort and safety of our workplace or our home, let’s walk the streets – like Matt does – and translate those numbers into reality. People equate busy, bustling streets with vitality and safety. Look back at North Michigan Avenue before Covid and the 2020 summer of unrest. People went shopping, dining and… Read more »
This poll is interesting and makes me wonder how many didn’t have a chance to voice an opinion but agree that crime is out of control. Demographics matter in the breakdown but when the rubber meets the road, so to speak, every human desires a safe environment to work, play, worship, and live in. Chicago is a magnificent city and the crime is destroying it. May the best crime-fighting candidate win for everyone’s sake.
Dear Hispanic and Afro-American Communities:
Please save our city … our beloved (by ALL of us) … Chicago.
Thank you
I see a trend of the Latino voter toward conservatism, and I hope that will serve to save Chicago. At least voting for Paul Vallas would be a start in the right direction. But make no mistake. It has to be a state-wide effort and getting rid of the embedded machine politics..https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democratic-strategists-respond-conservative-latino-swing-gop-dont-like-socialists
Getting out the vote is key. Vallas needs to work with the Police and Fire Unions and get some good old fashion door knocking started.
Hope everyone, especially those in this targeted area decide their vote based on who the Police and Fire Dept support. Paul Vallas. They know he will support them.
I hope Vallas’ team does a good job getting out the Hispanic vote. Thanks for this info!
At the polls, will Hispanics vote for lower crime or worse education? It is a strange alternative. But that is actually the choice between these candidates.
On my mind recently has been many thoughts about our justice system. The recent event of a school shooting and the tragic loss of lives. My prayers go out to those families who lost their loved ones. Yet we ignore the number of people who get murdered here in the city each weekend. It has become almost like reporting a sport score. Those that murder tend to have a long rap sheet. One can’t help but ask why are they out? If Paul Vallas wins the mayoral race he has lots ahead of him. Not only restoring the police but… Read more »
When the produce terminal center at South Water Market (12th/Racine) was rebuilt in 1994 as the new Chicago International Produce Market (24th/Wolcott) in Pilsen, it was a boon to the area, and helped the entire Blue Island corridor. After doing daily business on the CIPM, I could stop at a tamale truck on the street or dine at any number of great taquerias on 18th street & know I’m enjoying some of the best Mexican cuisine in the US. The upturn in crime in Pilsen is not surprising–it’s been lights out for these thugs since the 2020 riots, when they… Read more »
Another well-articulated analysis by Matt Rosenberg. Nothing works in a city that is unsafe. It is imperative that the next Mayor of Chicago have a better relationship with CPD and can work with them in a respectful way. That’s the top priority. That person is Paul Vallas. The last thing we need is another antagonistic, divisive, condescending Mayor. Brandon Johnson has shown us who he is in the debates. Progressives detest moderates. They’re blinded by their own biases, which has made things much worse for our city.
More beat cops pounding the pavement is a good start. Taking the shackles off their enforcement actions against criminals is also necessary. Bring back stop and frisk. Allow them to engage in pro-active policing. And if eyes and ears on the street is a good idea, here’s another one to encourage that, once the streets are safe enough for pedestrian traffic: install benches in high pedestrian traffic areas, as this encourages folks to sit down and rest a bit, if necessary. And it will also lead to more interaction among the general public. Civility and kindness aren’t just buzzwords… they… Read more »
More race based politics . . . *Yawn
I can’t imagine how difficult it must be for a business to stay competitive in Chicago. How do they entice well educated talent to relocate to the city/state when its many problems are increasingly well publicized throughout the nation? How do they find local labor when the local schools are producing illiterates? At best, the next mayor can only slow the demise of the city. Assuming that is Vallas, keep in mind he is not a young man. He could easily be a one term mayor, either due to age or the liberal voters not seeing improvement fast enough. Don’t… Read more »
Imagine a year where crime statistics drop for Chicago. It’s been a long time…
Crime Wave? You have not seen anything yet. Crime will get worse every year for a long time to come. Taxes will go way up, doubling every 5 years. The honest families are fleeing and soon only the poor and criminals will be left. The Chitty is DOA caused by the greed of money.