By: Matt Rosenberg
Chicago: it’s time to get back to basics. Against the city’s Wild West backdrop, there is no substitute for effective law enforcement, and no substitute for real criminal justice. Violence prevention programs are increasingly fashionable. But they aren’t proving out. In Chicago they’re hard to launch, effectiveness measures are often absent, and too often employees are in new trouble with the law. It’s not a recipe for success. They may deserve some limited oxygen still. But the city can’t afford any more fatal distractions. The numbers show why.
First, the dimensions of Chicago’s crime problem are jarring. Nationwide, murder is the least underreported crime by far – and thus an essential indicator. Wirepoints’ recent 75-city 2022 murder data survey shows Chicago has led the nation in murders for 11 years running. Its murder rate is up 39 percent versus 2019, and is the second highest among the nation’s 20 biggest cities. Chicago’s murder rate also far outpaces its peers, New York and Los Angeles. Nonfatal shootings number well into the thousands each year as well.
Clearly we’ve got a problem. So, are violence prevention programs any significant part of the answer? Not by a long shot.
Chicago’s violence reduction dashboard shows that from 2018 through 2021 there were a combined 14,003 victims of fatal and nonfatal shootings. Seven citywide, neighborhood-level Chicago violence prevention programs in the same four years may have prevented 383 more such victimizations, according to one expert’s estimate. Put another way, they may have shaved 2.7 percent off the total.
Even if the number of programs measured grew, and that almost-three-percent impact were to triple, more than 9 of 10 Chicago victims of fatal and nonfatal shootings would meet the same fate. Violence prevention programs in Chicago aren’t going to ever take a big bite out of violent crime.
Yet that hasn’t stopped the final two contenders for Chicago Mayor on April 4 from accenting them hopefully, as part of their broader public safety platforms. Paul Vallas says he wants to make the city’s “violence prevention infrastructure” work better and smarter. Brandon Johnson says he’ll create a new cabinet-level office to coordinate and amplify violence prevention programs.
Oversight is lacking
Meanwhile, violence prevention money has continued to flow into the city. That has included an eye-popping $410 million from the federal government in Covid relief money, targeted by the city for violence prevention work. Some programs in some places doubtless have had a positive effect. But violence prevention work in Chicago is of too little overall benefit and is too often poorly overseen.
A February assessment by the Illinois Answers Project showed:
- only about six percent of the $410 million had been spent one year later.
- The city often fails to specify and collect performance data for funded violence prevention programs, so there’s no standardized way of knowing if they’re having a positive effect.
- The city has been without a top violence prevention program coordinator since October. There’ve been four in the last four years.
- Some of the “violence prevention” programs pinpointed for spending involved initiatives with little or no connection to violence prevention work. That has included efforts to install more pickle-ball courts, fix up and sell vacant lots, and boost response times to non-emergency, or 311, calls.
Accountability gets fudged
In addition to core problems managing violence prevention programs, there is an unwillingness to evaluate them honestly. Findings which undercut the widespread belief that they’re effective, or poised to be broadly effective, tend to fall by the wayside.
In 2022 a new study was widely hailed in Chicago media for showing, based on a scant 20 months of findings, that a violence prevention program had quantifiably reduced social harms. But as only Wirepoints reported, the study itself showed that program enrollees didn’t really perform better overall: they were no less likely than members of an unenrolled control group to be arrested for all forms of violence being measured – including criminal sexual assault, armed robbery, aggravated assault, and battery without a weapon.
Workers with fresh criminal charges or court orders
Scant impact, poor administration, and incomplete or dishonest reporting on their benefits aren’t the only shortcomings of violence prevention programs in Chicago. Sometimes the violence interrupters themselves not only have prior felony convictions – which is arguably not a disqualifier for the specialized work – but also recent criminal charges.
CWB Chicago reported that in January Chicago Police arrested a violence prevention worker for unlawful possession of a weapon by a felon, possession of a heroin, and possession of a controlled substance – or bagfuls of what was believed to be crack cocaine. It occurred during execution of a search warrant. He was found by police hiding under a bed, naked, and had five prior felony convictions.
CWB also reported that in February Chicago police arrested two gang intervention workers. One for being a felon in possession of a firearm and illegal delivery of a firearm, and the other for illegal sale of a firearm and delivery of cocaine. Right after the alleged cocaine delivery, the suspect went to his gang intervention job site, according to police.
The Illinois Answers Project reported that one violence prevention program that gets city funding through a middleman agency is headed by a man still under a court order to stay away from his wife and children. He is paid $175,000 per year. The violence prevention group’s listed address was a shuttered storefront in a South Side strip mall. The protection order was entered following his 2018 conviction for holding a gun to his wife’s head and threatening to kill her, while their children watched. A judge in October 2022 extended that protection order to 2024.
Drop the pretense about how to tamp down major crimes in Chicago
If Chicago wants to get serious, it needs to drop the pretense that violence prevention programs will ever play a significant part in stemming violent crimes, and other major crimes – which are up 33 percent from 2019, 41 percent from 2022, and so far this year 52 percent compared to a year ago.
To tamp down crime once and for all the city needs:
- Cook County prosecutors and judges who’ll first stop the revolving door which encourages criminals.
- More politicians who challenge vilification of and violence against Chicago police, and who confront and condemn pernicious advocacy by Chicago Public Schools of looting and arson.
- Police officers who are more fully empowered to do foot chases and car chases.
- More cops assigned to district-level patrols, not citywide units or desk jobs.
- Far better response to high-priority 911 calls.
The therapeutic, program-based approach to criminal violence feels good to those who say, as did outgoing one-term Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, that we can’t “arrest our way out of crime.”
Wanted: arrests, prosecutions, convictions, and just sentencing
That’s a blithe dismissal of crime’s horrific impact on victims – who in Chicago are disproportionately black. If Chicago is to lower its murder rate to New York City’s 5.2 per 100,000 it will need to drop from 700 or more murders annually to 140. Thus, there’s no avoiding a far more serious approach to crime prevention. Incrementalism – which is the most charitable description of violence prevention programs – isn’t working.
It’s precisely arrests, prosecutions, convictions, and just sentencing that Chicago needs, in order to stop the bleeding. Foot patrols by police embedded within a return to real community policing are one essential part of that.
Empowered and accountable police, and empowered and accountable judges and prosecutors are how to finally deliver on the city’s top priority, and a fundamental expectation of the governed. That’s safer streets for all: 24-7.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- More cops on Chicago’s streets won’t help until criminals are prosecuted and sentenced
- So much for Chicago transit’s ‘anti-crime’ initiatives. 2022’s violent crime exceeded 2019, despite 46% plunge in riders
- Chicagoans are shooting back – and it’s not going to stop until leaders lead
- Chicago’s pursuit of ‘criminal justice reform’ an utter failure: Windy City homicides top nation for 11th year in a row with crime still rising.
- Chicago, New Orleans were the nation’s murder capitals in 2022 – A Wirepoints survey of America’s 75 largest cities
Audio and summary 
If this bill passes, say goodbye to local control over all Illinois parks and expect to see open drug and alcohol use, needles, no sanitation and fire hazards, but no ordinary park users.
Matt – as always thank you for your helpful insight and analysis. We appreciate you keeping us informed and creating opportunity for open dialogue on such pertinent issues impacting Chicago residents. I learned so much reading your book “What’s Next, Chicago? Notes of a Pissed-Off Native Son”. Thank you for your ongoing commitment to educating your readers and making a difference in our city.
This is unfortunate. Decarceration and restorative justice programs don’t work. If criminals know they won’t be punished, they will continue to commit crimes against defenseless persons. That said, frankly, Chicagoans are getting EXACTLY what they voted for: poor politicians that lack leadership and increased violent crime. It doesn’t matter what Democrat is elected, Democrats defend criminals at the expense of victims. In that sense, Chicago residents can’t complain because, essentially, they’re part of the problem because of how they vote.
This is so key. Only 3% of violence stopped by “violence interruptors?” Such an overblown solution based on a very political popular PBS documentary. Few know stops were reduced 80% after ACLU reforms and post-protest in 2016. Shootings went up 60%. This isn’t rocket science: You need more police activity. RE: Chicago’s violence reduction dashboard shows that from 2018 through 2021 there were a combined 14,003 victims of fatal and nonfatal shootings. Seven citywide, neighborhood-level Chicago violence prevention programs in the same four years may have prevented 383 more such victimizations, according to one expert’s estimate. Put another way, they… Read more »
Spot on! Chicago definitely needs serious prosecution of serious crimes! Unfortunately Chicago has long been a political swamp, much like DC, for over 50 years with a one party rule. This enables more criminals to be placed in jobs like violence prevention, based on political clout rather than real world accomplishments. We need to start over.
So appreciative of Matt Rosenberg’s ongoing commentary and insightful analysis. One of the things that sets Matt apart in the world of local journalism is that he offers an “otherwise:” possible and potential solutions to the issues plaguing our still-great city.
The only “violence prevention program” that truly works is the arrest/prosecute/incarcerate and, depending upon the severity of the crime, execute. Government programs don’t fix or prevent much of anything, at this point.
Chicago and Cook County politicians enjoy the benefits and slight of hand of high levels of violence that provides them with infinite campaign slogans on how they’ll reduce crime. They don’t mean it. It seems they prefer the high levels of violence to campaign on. Jails and prisons exist solely to protect society from those too dangerous to walk amongst us. Years of political policies that reduce incarceration levels, endangering constituents, even though it’s known a huge impact could be made by arresting, prosecuting, and severely sentencing repeat violent offenders who disproportionately carry out the majority of violent crime. Politicians… Read more »
Illinois and nwo democraps have mastered the squander.
Spend a lot of tax money for apocalypticly ineffective programs for violence reduction; like safe passage.wood shampoos!
Well done article. Wish more people read it.
$410 million in federal money for crime prevention smells like political redistribution, the ineffectiveness confirms. So far, that’s more than $1 million per prevented murder, by the wildest estimates. The only proven methods are fathers in the household, but our federal welfare system prevents that. Politicians fail again. The only backup is cold iron bars.
Good article Matt but I can simplify this from my experience. First and foremost the department manpower has been decimated since the Daley regime in order to fund the Olympics we did not host. We never recovered! Second the nonsensical consent degrees the city signed without a fight to placate ridiculous politicians and a federal government that is not responsible for our crime at any level. Then comes a radical administration only looking to buys votes from anyone. What needs to be done is first of all elect a mayor who will stand up immediately and pledge their unwavering support… Read more »
None of the above is likely to happen in a Democrat administration. Most certainly NOT if Johnson is elected…and maybe if Vallas is elected — but only if Kim Foxx gets the boot, and half of the judges are replaced. Vallas promised the “safest big city in America”, but right now,it is the most dangerous. Re-institution of police powers, “stop and frisk”, treating gangs like terrorists, make arrests, get convictions, impose automatic jail sentences, double the cops Chicago has now, impose required payment of reparations to victims by criminals…then and only then, on top of that, Chicago Public Schools could… Read more »
One of the qualities of Matt Rosenberg that I heartily recommend readers scrutinize is the fact that he doesn’t just bring stories and statistics, and so on, and complain about the manifest breakdown of the Windy City. He actually comes up with workable solutions to the dastardly problems that beset it.
In my humble opinion, he is one of the stalwarts who, day in and day out, produce excellent analysis and commentary and suggestions for improvement. God bless him!
It occurred to me that it might be helpful to post an additional comment. In our days, envy and jealousy seem to be the way many people trend. I think that it is very necessary, laudable, good, wonderful, and so on to admire the excellence of those who truly stand out in a positive way. Matt is one of those people. Please keep him in your prayers!
This is startling. It’s no wonder why several large businesses and corporations moved out of Chicago, Illinois. The criminals are very emboldened, they feel they have extra protection with the Safe-T Act and a progressive judiciary. The police appear to be powerless in so many situations, plus you have certain “leaders” in the community directing and encouraging people to disrespect and enact violence toward law enforcement. Hopefully this will change with a new Mayor, but that will depend on who is elected.
Rosenberg nails the solution to the crime epidemic in Chicago; arrests, prosecutions, and convictions. Sadly, politicians and unelected bureaucrats are more concerned about their images with the ethereal woke mob than with bringing justice to actual victims of the violence.
This Nasty Genie has been outta the bottle for some time now, and there ‘ain’t no way’ that she’s goin back in. Like a raw sewerage back up into your neighborhood, the streets stink, the flower beds have been destroyed and half the stores are closed. You can join in the cleanup ‘once again’ or just move to Florida or Texas.
Interesting enough that there are always or the majority of the time solutions to all problems in order for this city to once again become a safer city, but what politician is capable to make those decisions? Which mayor will take the cuffs off our police officers in order to do the jobs they’re trained to do?? To serve and protect the citizens!! However, we ALL know that any mayor can put as many boots on the ground, but it’s the courts, judges and prosecutors that’ll make a huuuge difference. In the meanwhile, those prevention programs are becoming fuel for… Read more »
Until the evil three-headed beast of Preckwinkle, Foxx, and Brown are destroyed by Crook County voters via the ballot box nothing will change in Chiraq.
The only thing that could possibly make it worse is if Chicago elects the CTU plant Brandon Johnson as Mayor
Should read Preckwickle, Foxx and Evans
Brown’s goota go, too. Luckily he he is quitting. He may have been a real cop down south, but he has only been pretending to be a cop since the day he arrived here.
Matt has done a superb job of highlighting how intervention doesn’t always work.
Progressivism is the major cause of mayhem. It teaches, leniency will cure crime. NO. Pointing out that felons are embedding themselves in programs is fantastic. Why are the social networks not thoroughly vetting their staff? Do people need to die. Thank you again.
I’m tired of outrageously high property taxes and not being able to walk down the street without fear of being attacked or killed. Put the cuffs where they belong, on the criminals not the police!
I think the taxpaying public, should get their 410 million dollars back.
The answer is do obvious – and it’s not pickle ball courts – lock em up!
Ken Griffen will NEVER COME BACK because of crime.
You’re right on that.
When politicians go on a branding and spending spree, serious notice should be given to the name of their intended sources and uses of funds. “The Inflation Reduction Act”, “Build Back Better”, “Violence Prevention Programs”, and a legion of other misnamed initiatives provide a definite “tell”. Whatever the name and decreed result labeled in the name, the opposite result will inevitably rear its head. Inflation has only gotten worse, trains derailing and no heads have rolled, and violence continues unabated ….. if not getting much worse. In regards to the latter, a good start to violence prevention is more police… Read more »
So…there is $385 million still unspent? Does that mean un-earmarked? Does that mean the new mayor will control it? And like stated upthread, I’d like to see who is signing the checks on the money when it goes out.
I literally laughed when I read that Champaign, IL was going to fund a 24/7 social work position for an emergency room “to deter gang violence.” So, a guy comes in with a gunshot wound, and the social worker is going to tell him he should not retaliate. Yeah, let’s consider that problem solved. Ha!
the biggest con in all of these tales is the ‘big money grants’. A vast majority of this money finds its way into the pockets of the local politicians, and they give a trifle to fight the cause. This, of course, doesn’t work. So, they need even MORE money now. Repeat first step of course. Now you have a fully financed Hegelian dialectic. They have an agenda (total control) so they create a crisis ‘ineffective community policing; that can only be solved by their pre planned response (seize any means of protection- namely guns, and install Federal policing- so it’s… Read more »
Violence prevention programs, right.
Let’s spend even more tax dollars (we don’t have) to provide growing numbers of criminals with even more opportunities to decide not to pay attention to social workers encouraging them to follow laws they know the police can’t enforce.
Make sense to me….
It would be cheaper to buy everyone under the age of 25 a top of the line gaming console and a yearly subscription to Steam.
As others here have commented, these “programs” are nothing but big pipelines for money. If the problems they’re supposed to fix go away, the reason for pouring money into that pipeline would go away, wouldn’t it? Then what would these nameless people who actually receive the money do for an income? Would love to see a couple of things: NAMES!!! Who are the actual people who cash those checks? What are their connections to the people who write the checks? What EXACTLY is a “violence prevention program”? I mean, what do they DO (or SAY they’re going to do?) To… Read more »
What is a “gang intervention job site?” A street corner in the hood, where they mediate disputes? I fear for your safety during your walk-abouts. Some people have ended up committing suicide (under suspicious circumstances) for speaking the truth!
Such a complex issue and no easy solution. I often find myself thinking about how I grew up in my neighborhood in the city. In my teenage years I was lucky enough to have my church playground as my area of hanging and playing. Were we perfect kids? No. But we hung each summer night there. The priests would come out and talk to us. They would bring out basketballs, volleyballs, and various other equipment. Each month they would have a dance. I realize how lucky I was to have a place to play. Where do kids get play now?… Read more »
I’m currently reading “I Got a Monster,” about Baltimore’s corrupt police department and in particular, one team tasked with getting guns off the street. Essentially, they were a criminal enterprise. But in the book, they discuss the city’s “Safe Streets” initiative. It too is a crime reduction program, but it’s filled with corrupt individuals itself. I assume Chicago has its own challenges like this.
Sports fans all know that talented teams often lose because they failed at the fundamentals of the game: Can’t turn the double play. Won’t run out a ground ball. Missed the cutoff man. Poor tackling. Poor blocking. Dropped balls. Missed free throws. Excessive penalties… Chicago IS that talented team that has completely failed at the fundamentals of good governance. Matt’s excellent reporting on all the failures city and county authorities to effectively police, arrest, prosecute and sentence criminals proves this assessment over and over and over. If you follow his Facebook posts you’ll see his walkabouts that beautifully showcase the… Read more »
Ever since LBJ launched the Great Society, community organizers in our urban areas have scammed the nation’s taxpayers out of trillions of dollars to make our once great cities better. Are they better than in 1965? LOL To quote J.B. Shurk, “Politics is a profession predicated on creating new problems, blaming them on someone else, pretending to solve them, and getting paid while they get worse.”
To add a bit to this LBJ’s actions were, per his own admission, directed at one certain segment of society and when I think of that and your post LBJ was a fine Democrat.
It seems that the criminals lives have value, but not the victims’ lives. This has got to change. The system gives the criminals plenty of second chances, but a dead victim gets no second chance at life. Pretending to fight crime, via agencies, is not fighting crime.
I know a way to stop the violence in Chicago streets🤦♀️1. vote in a conservative, not a liberal, nutter. If there is a real conservative left in Chicago, yet in Illinois, 2nd Prosecute and jail those that commit them.3rd Eradicate gang bangers and thugs who now know they will be cuddled by the pro-violence prosecutors.4th, protect the 2cond amendment and allow law-abiding citizens to defend themselves from thugs and gang bangers that are now running the streets and neighborhoods. What a novel idea!!! Huh!!!
This article could have been written 4 years ago. All the money in the world can’t substitute for absentee fathers.
One of the biggest scams that our local thieves have come up with- and they are experts in the field.
DRUGS. GANG. TURFs. As long as we have administrations that permit – and in the Biden Administration, seemingly promote the growth of each by leaving the border open wide – to talk about crime reduction is (seemingly) futile. Regrettably.
It will become far worse until the election of 2024…and then, we pray, that adults are returned to power nationally. (ie: Republican Adults!)
That report from Illinois Answers Project linked in this column is really outstanding. It’s about how incompetently the local community organizations run their programs, with no accountability. We throw hundreds of millions of dollars at them not just on violence prevention but many other matters. A massive review is needed, building on what Illinois Answers did.
“Homeless Services” is another huge money suck. Here in Evanston, we’re dealing with Connections for the Homeless, which is trying to ram through a low – barrier homeless shelter (The Margarita Inn, a former hotel) in our nice residential 4th Ward neighborhood. Of course the wokesters, including Mayor Biss, and most of the City Council are all for this project. A few years back, Connections was a $3.5 million dollar outfit, now it’s about $15 million – and Jan Schakowsky just gifted them another $2 million to renovate their drop – in facility which is located in a church basement.… Read more »
The Margarita Inn was for a long time home to Va Pensiero, one of the finest restaurants in all of Chicagoland. How the mighty have fallen!
It’s outrageous, our nice area is now rife with druggies, panhandlers, and the other “dregs” that the woke Evanston officials pander to in the name of “equity”. Here’s just one of many articles on the Margarita, with my comment: https://evanstonnow.com/another-delay-for-margarita-decision/ Another delay for Margarita decision “A circuit court judge has delayed the resumption of an Evanston Land Use Commission hearing on the Connections for the Homeless special use permit to continue operating the Margarita Inn as a homeless shelter until April 26. Alan Didesch, an attorney for neighboring property owner Cameel Halim, says Judge Neil Cohen Thursday granted his client… Read more »
Yes, and move the needle on some other key metrics to make IL more livable and get more business in and therefore increase home values including on the south and west sides of Chicago. Those metrics (all about the worst in the country): IL #1-3 in overall tax burden; IL #1-3 in political corruption; IL #51, behind Puerto Rico in fiscal condition; rampant crime; most kids cannot read/write or do math at grade level, despite among the highest per student funding in the country; the #1 issue in IL-fantastic abused Tier 1 public pension and medical benefits; rigged election maps;… Read more »
Want a Chicago cop? Call the Punta Gorda, Florida yacht club.
I have a violence prevention program: work for the CTA. Plenty of open positions available. $29/hr. Meet your spouse at work and now you’re household income is $120K/yr. After a full day’s work, you’re too tired to fight. Violence prevented.